July fancies and betting

Out of interest ,does anyone know what is the least number of runs had by a horse prior to running and winning the July?

Would the Eagle be making history by winning at only his 7th outing?[/quote]

I think it will be a record - Greys Inn in his 8th start and ill fated Right Prerogative in his 9th start best so far

shrek wrote: Futura's prep seemed to go well and will be hard to beat as he can quicken up off any pace. My other fancy is Power King, coming in with a light weight and always gives of his best. Will be a runner as well and the 25/1 looks good EW value.

shrek, I'm also a big Futura fan - I don't agree with the view that he might not stay - he finished strong in last year's race, so for me stamina is not an issue - also as you say, he can quicken from any pace, so with a good possibility of a muddling pace like last year, he has to be a huge runner in my book - I just think Legal Eagle coming in with only 54 kg's(should be carrying 58 imo in a 'proper' handicap) is currently my first choice - he also has that 'wow' acceleration as he showed in the Jubilee when quickening smartly off what seemed a slowish pace - for me if he gets a clear run and with no hard-luck stories, he will win.

Power King looks well in when compared to runners like the Elley pair and should be a contender for a minor place imo

fingers wrote: Out of interest ,does anyone know what is the least number of runs had by a horse prior to running and winning the July?.......]

She never won her July but there was a Tarry filly who had raced only twice(?) but was a winner of the Woolavington 2000. Unfortunately she was put down following some issue.

Just wondering if anyone took some of that HUGE price of Legal Eagle a few weeks ago , geez they must be really looking forward to the big race

Sniper wrote: Just wondering if anyone took some of that HUGE price of Legal Eagle a few weeks ago , geez they must be really looking forward to the big race

You would be referring to our esteemed site administrator I think

5/2 fav now :whistle:

only on very small :whistle:

Anyone else think Futura is over rated?

My feeling it will be almost impossible for Futura to win under 60kgs.. Has it ever been done before?? Some say the Jhb winter form not too good and Legal Eagle maybe very good horse but 5/2 before the draw a ridiculous price. Maybe the odds on Dynamic, Wylie Hall more realistic...I know he's gone off and maybe last years July wasn't the best and I don't know wtf has happened to Tellina but I still quite like him.

Shrek you are spot on regarding Power King . A juicy EW bet proposition . Carried 58 kg in Met for a 5 length beating and now 53 kg. Has had less than 3 runs since gelding and sure to be running on strongly for the Kannemeyer stable.

french navy a big runner

Mac wrote:

fingers wrote: Out of interest ,does anyone know what is the least number of runs had by a horse prior to running and winning the July?.......]

She never won her July but there was a Tarry filly who had raced only twice(?) but was a winner of the Woolavington 2000. Unfortunately she was put down following some issue.

The horse was called Wendywood, won 1st time out with gavin leerna. its 3rd run was in the july

Thought I'd give a 'short' write up on the likely runners before the final field (and the draw) is announced next week - the early bird and all that ....use it don't use it :ohmy:

1. Futura NMR 120 Handicap Weight (HW) 60 July Weight (JW) 60
Obvious class horse in the race - can accelerate off any pace - detractors point to his MR being too high and possible stamina doubts - also no horse have won with 60 kg's on his back since the race distance was changed to 2200 in 1970 - however Heavy Metal won with 59.5 kg's and Futura arguably a better horse - 4/1 now available seems generous imo

2. Wyllie Hall NMR 116 HW 58 JW 58
Plenty people of the opinion that the race was unfairly taken away from him last year; much better off at the weights with Futura, but has also been given a 7 point increase since last year's race - making him 4.5 kg's worse off with Tellina - gives the impression that he runs well fresh, so lack of a recent run should not be an issue - definite contender imo and probably fair value at 7/1

3. Majmu NMR 110 HW 55 JW 55
Top 3yr old filly - comfortably beaten by Wyllie Hall in the Champion's Challenge in April and will be worse off at the weights with that one for the July - but supporters point to the fact that she may have made her run down the wrong side of the straight in the worst going - also reported as having spread a shoe in running. Not 100% certain to run as she has also been entered (and got a great draw) in the Garden Province. Current price of 13/2 more realistic imo

4. Gold Onyx NMR 110 HW 55 JW 55
Has staked his claim in top company with good runs behind Futura in the Queens Plate and the Met; fluffed his lines badly in the Cup Trial, but most likely needed the run badly - should still get a run and imo not the worst outsider at 66/1 to consider for a top 6 finish

5. Punta Arenas NMR 109 HW 54.5 JW 54.5
Winning the Cup Trial cemented his place in the July once again - has constantly give the impression that he is just below the best - unlikely winner imo, but still in a handicap must have a top 6 chance at 28/1, although he could have done without the 3 point increase he got for winning the Cup Trial

6. Halve the Deficit NMR 109 HW 54.5 JW 54.5
Not badly in with Wyllie Hall when looking at his run in the Champion Challenge - for me he has stamina doubts and is an unlikely winner, but is another who needs consideration for the top 6 at 40/1

7. French Navy NMR 109 HW 54.5 JW 54.5
Top 3 yr old and winner of the Daily News so has track experience in his favor - got 3 points for that victory which does mean that he has to give Legal Eagle 0.5 kg's (was beaten almost 5 lengths by LE in the Derby) which makes me think he will have his work cut out - 33/1 before the Daily News was value, 12/1 now ????

8. Tellina NMR 108 HW 54 JW 54
Repeating his effort in last year's race would make him a big runner - however on his subsequent runs in the Queens Plate and Met sees him held by Futura and about on par with horses like Gold Onyx and Helderberg Blue; 40/1 imo was good value, not sure about the current 22/1 - but is another contender for the top 6 imo

9. Legal Eagle NMR 108 HW 54 JW 54
Propelled to current favorite after a very impressive win in the Jubilee where he ran to a rating of 120+ (Nett MR 116+) - so extremely well handicapped here and worthy favorite imo - only slight niggle is that he has not raced at the track - for me if does not get very unlucky by not finding a run, he will challenge for top spot. Jockey booking could be interesting - I think Marcus normally rides at 55 kg's - so who knows - either try and lose the extra kg, or ride overweight (being so well in anyway) - or another jock ?

10. Helderberg Blue NMR 107 HW 53.5 JW 53.5
Fair run in the Met when setting the pace which puts him on par with runners like Gold Onyx and Tellina; also his run in the Cup Trial probably puts him in front of Punta Arenas; so could be a top 6 contender (good place value at 66/1?) if allowed to stride in a race where pace could be a factor

11. Power King NMR 106 HW 53 JW 53
Good second in the 1900 when coming from far back - does look well handicapped when compared to runners like Helderberg Blue and Punta Arenas - often gets there too late; for me is a top 4 contender and probably fair each-way value at 20/1

12. The Conglomerate NMR 104 HW 52 JW 53
1 kg under sufferance - also gets only 1.5 kg's from French Navy for a beating of 2.5 lengths in the Daily News - so could still be held by FN who is comfortably held by Legal Eagle - the current 15/1 seems more realistic

13. Deputy Judd NMR 102 HW 51 JW 53
2 kg's under sufferance - but excuses in the Daily News and 1.5 kg's better off with French Navy on the Derby run where he finished in front of FN - so could be 2nd best of the 3 yr old colts - imo could be better than rated and does represent some good value at 33/1

14. Dynamic NMR 101 HW 50.5 JW 53
2.5 kg's under sufferance; fair run in the Cup Trial when 3rd behind Punta Arenas and 0.75 lengths in front of Helderberg Blue - however at these weights he seems held by both of those - not for me at 35/1

15 Dynastic Power NMR 101 HW 50.5 JW 53
2.5 kg's under sufferance; winner of the 1900 but flopped badly in the Cup Trial - will probably still get a run courtesy of the 1900 victory; looks held by quite a few imo - even 66/1 can't tempt me

16. Pine Princess NMR 105 HW 52.5 JW 52.5
Good 3 yr old filly - stable's 2nd choice behind Majmu - but could end up the only stable entry - at the weights could surprise and find the top 6 - one of few who could perhaps set the pace - current odds of 40/1 probably realistic ?

Not sure who will fill the other 2 positions as well as the reserves; probably lies between Tamaanee, Ice Machine, Hot Ticket, Athina, Judicial and Killua Castle.

So at this stage (the draw could still swing things one way or the other) I make it between Legal Eagle and Futura (preference for Legal Eagle), followed by Wyllie Hall, Power King and Deputy Judd. At this stage I'm taking the view that Majmu will take her place in the Garden Province - but if she does run in the July, I'd place her in 5th with Deputy Judd in 6th. Others to consider for that 6th placing include Tellina, Gold Onyx and Helderberg Blue.

Also interesting will be jockey arrangements - almost half of the runners need jocks who can ride at less than 54 - so a few 'less glamorous' jocks (Herholdt, Maujean, vd Merwe and even the appie Zackey) could find themselves with a ride in the July, with the current leading jock Gav Lerena not getting a ride because of his weight :ohmy:

Roll on July the 4th