July fancies and betting

Where will Futura find 4.5 lengths? I dont think Futura has ever been pushed to victory. I believe he could have won his races by street miles.

Mac wrote: Where will Futura find 4.5 lengths? I dont think Futura has ever been pushed to victory. I believe he could have won his races by street miles.

Even the ones where Legislate paralyzed him .......lol :lol:

Mac wrote: Where will Futura find 4.5 lengths? I dont think Futura has ever been pushed to victory. I believe he could have won his races by street miles.

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I hear you too Rob.....but form is static and horses either improve or go backwards.....when Legislate held Futura......he was on top of his game..... and imo Futura was the improver...
I did not catch the show but I also think that young Snaith is being diplomatic to the share holders in the 2 of them by saying that they were on top of each other.....I get the feeling that Legislate could have shot his bolt and now not as easy to train nor asses..... :dry:

Sataar wrote: Heavy Metal is my selection. It does not matter who gets the ride, the biggest come back in all time, history made again. :ohmy:

Very unlikely to get a run

Muhtiman wrote:

Mac wrote: Where will Futura find 4.5 lengths? I dont think Futura has ever been pushed to victory. I believe he could have won his races by street miles.

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I hear you too Rob.....but form is static and horses either improve or go backwards.....when Legislate held Futura......he was on top of his game..... and imo Futura was the improver...
I did not catch the show but I also think that young Snaith is being diplomatic to the share holders in the 2 of them by saying that they were on top of each other.....I get the feeling that Legislate could have shot his bolt and now not as easy to train nor asses..... :dry:

Agree with everything you say ,but,as I said, if you try and amend "real form" by second guessing all sorts of factors such as "he said" or "she heard" or the famous "they tell me",you may as well just rely on gut feel.I am merely pointing out that Legislate gave Futura 3Kg,and beat him, in the last July, and now gets 1.5Kg this year!!
Its the July ,its a handicap so of course Futura can win but you have to use some criteria to filter the field down..........I like collaterals!
(I also don't agree with habitually making excuses for horses ,so will accept no excuses for a below par run by Legislate on Saturday! but I don't think Fourie,as stable jockey, would be taking the ride,in the July, if he thought it had shot it's bolt?)

FRENCH NAVY

Just to add to the discussion about the form of Legislate and Futura.......

I think everyone agrees that Futura has improved a great deal since last year's July - the question is how much. In trying to put a number (lengths) to the improvement, I compared him with Tellina - looking at their runs in the July last year and the Met this year:

July 2014:

Receiving 5 kg's from Tellina, Futura beat him by 1.85 lengths - so (equating 1kg to 1.5 lengths) - this means that were they at level weights, Tellina would have beaten Futura by 5.65 lengths

Met 2015:

Giving Tellina 1.5 kg's, Futura beat him by 3.1 lengths - so (again equating 1kg to 1.5 lengths) - this means that were they at level weights, Futura would have beaten Tellina by 5.35 lengths

So in theory, from being 5.65 lengths behind Tellina in the 2014 July, Futura improved to be 5.35 lengths in front of Tellina in the Met 2015 - that is an improvement of 11 lengths

To sort of verify my calcs, I repeated the exercise with Punta Arenas - and came to the same answer - Futura has improved by 11 lengths from the July 2014 to the Met 2015.

Taking the theory a bit further (again using the 1 kg = 1.5 lengths over appr 2000m) it follows that F has improved 7.3 kg's during this time - or 14.6 MR points. The handicapper has raised him from 104 to 120 - that is 16 points. So even if you take the view that Futura has not really improved from the Met to today, it would seem that 120 is not an unrealistic rating.

What we don't know of course, is how many lengths Legislate has improved

And going strictly at the weights, Wyllie Hall is going to come into this year's July being 2kg's better off with Legislate when compared with last year's July - so again the question of how much Legislate has improved comes up. According to the handicapper, both Legislate and Wyllie Hall have improved 7 points since the July last year. The Gold Challenge (although only over 1600) should give an indication of how much Legislate has actually improved - the betting seems to suggest that he has not improved enough to beat Futura - let's see :huh:

Frodo,I think what that in Futura's favour is Legislate has probably had a far less satisfactory prep than last year ,but against him is that Wylie Hall has probably had a much better one(I backed Wylie Hall last year but was concerned with the lack of runs)
Its a bit academic for me as I will be backing the 3yr olds this year!

rob faux wrote: Frodo,I think what that in Futura's favour is Legislate has probably had a far less satisfactory prep than last year ,but against him is that Wylie Hall has probably had a much better one(I backed Wylie Hall last year but was concerned with the lack of runs)
Its a bit academic for me as I will be backing the 3yr olds this year!

Legal Eagle?.........

Anyone know why Captain America isn't nominated? After gelding and convincing last win I would have put him in the top 5 betting in the July field this year.

Frodo, are you a part-time Evangelist minister by any chance?

You may have converted the Futura naysayers, with the exception of Robbie, The Missing Link and the owners of the rest of the runners who will make up the final field.

They may have just seen the light - see-re-us-leigh.

I think whoever beats Wyllie Hall should win..