2016 Durban July Log

Deva G wrote: A case can be made for several horses in this year's July.
Black Arthur,It's my turn,Marinesco,Bela Bela,Legal Eagle,French Navy,Abashiri,Solid Speed....
I believe that these horses will fill in the quartet but how on earth do you find a winner this year???
I was always a person to find a horse and take a stance but this year seems impossible to find a winner.
Going to be one exciting race and I can't wait....

pirates wrote: would it not be to mr tarry and also mr brugmans benefit even if legal isn't going to run to go ahead and accept with him and only withdraw when the weights cannot be changed?

Sean Tarry holds the cards…

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Just how Sean Tarry plays his ‘Legal Eagle’ trump card over the next couple of days will have a marked effect on the weights for the Vodacom Durban July. The weights are due out tomorrow.

Until now Tarry has not been drawn on Legal Eagle but given current bookmakers betting and their information network, indications are that the gelding will not run in the July.

But just when Tarry decides to withdraw Legal Eagle, if indeed that is his intention, will make a significant difference to the weights for the race.

If Tarry withdraws Legal Eagle before publication of the weights then Tarry-trained French Navy will be allotted top weight of 60kg with current favourite Black Arthur 53,5kg.

If Legal Eagle runs, he will carry 60kg, stable companion French Navy will carry 57,5kg and Black Arthur 53kg. Should Tarry withdraw Legal Eagle after the publication of the weights French Navy will be pushed up to 60kg but Black Arthur would also rise by a corresponding 2,5kg to 55,5kg, 2kg more than if Legal Eagle is withdrawn before publication of the weights.

Also in this final scenario, a number of lower rated three-year-olds would get into the race not under sufferance as they would if Black Arthur carried 53,5kg or 53kg.

Tarry also pitched the July selection panel another curved ball as Trophy Wife scored a timely victory in a Pinnacle Stakes at Turffontein yesterday. Slow out, as is her want, S’manga Khumalo was content to sit well off the pace in the early exchanges of the 1400m event but moved the filly through smoothly on the inside rail to score a bloodless victory.

Trophy Wife had much in her favour here and just what view the panel takes will be interesting.

Not so lucky was Deo Juvente in the Gr3 Jubilee Handicap. 15th on the July log, Geoff Woodruff’s runner was pulled up before the line and his chances of making July 2 now look slim.

However, Tarry’s decision to send Leige up from his Summerveld yard paid dividends as he outlasted Rainy Day Blues giving some credence to the form of the Gr1 Daily News 2000. The first two home were not among initial July nominations but the final supplementary stage is today at a cost of R25k.

Mac De Lago shortened from 18-1 to 11-1 after his Rising Sun Gold Challenge win…

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Mac De Lago and Dynamic were the big movers in the Vodacom Durban July betting yesterday as bookmakers assessed the results, and likely impact, of Saturday’s big Greyville races.

Word Sports Betting cut the promoted Rising Sun Gold Challenge winner from 18-1 to 11-1 while Betting World shortened Weiho Marwing’s charge from 16-1 to 10-1. Dynamic, as big as 50-1 before his second to Exit Here in the Cup Trial, is now a best-priced 22-1.

French Navy, who ran on in eye-catching style to take third in the Gold Challenge, was shortened from 11-1 to 9-1 by WSB and is 8-1 with Betting World. However the layers were unimpressed with fourth-placed New Predator and marked him out from 60-1 to as big as 90-1. Black Arthur remains favourite at 11-2 (5-1 with Betting World) and Marinaresco has shortened a point to 6-1.

rob faux wrote:

Deva G wrote: A case can be made for several horses in this year's July.
Black Arthur,It's my turn,Marinesco,Bela Bela,Legal Eagle,French Navy,Abashiri,Solid Speed....
I believe that these horses will fill in the quartet but how on earth do you find a winner this year???
I was always a person to find a horse and take a stance but this year seems impossible to find a winner.
Going to be one exciting race and I can't wait....

Opinion is what makes racing so interesting .....................I hardly ever have a proper bet on the July and yet,this year ,I think Legal Eagle is,IMO, the best bet for years........I never believed they would take him out,given the opposition, so I hope I'm right and he isn't scratched tomorrow!!!