2016 Durban July Log

Just watched replays of Marineresco's runs....
Damn impressive.
I'm going with him in July if it's my turn disappoints in Daily News

PeterD wrote:

Mac wrote: If Legal Eagle is not going on an overseas campaign there is no single reason why he should not run in the July. He has it at his mercy and at what a price!

LE carries 60kg and is rated 120 - well exposed and not likely to run above 120.
Black Arthur will carry 53kg and is rated 106, but has significant scope to run above that.
He needs to run 109 or better (3 lb WFA included) ie. A mere 3 lb improvement on his current rating to be competitive with LE.
LE definitely does not have the race " at his mercy" although would be a big runner.

I would agree 'at his mercy' is a bit strong, but the fact remains that should he run, 5 or 6 runners (including all the 3yr olds bar Abashiri and New Predator) would come in under sufferance at current ratings - and the 'potential' to run to a higher rating still needs to be fulfilled - I think any other owner would not even think of taking him out (bar injury of course) :ohmy:

Any shrewdies here got an updated July log? Ie. MR of those horses still entered?
Interesting to get a final quick look before scratchings come out early next week!

So what's the best guess for top 16 that will run?
Who is guaranteed ro run at this stage?

Here's a little excerpt from an article on Sportingpost about GVN's thoughts on Marinaresco.

“He gives me goose bumps. He is probably the best I’ve ridden, he is still maturing and he will be a big runner in the July.”

Worth noting he was second in the July on Smanjemanje so he does know about what it takes in the July. Considering he's won four grade 1's on Inara, these are words paying attention too, this horse is very special. Massive runner.

Bushy wrote: Any shrewdies here got an updated July log? Ie. MR of those horses still entered?
Interesting to get a final quick look before scratchings come out early next week!

Think an updated log out Monday

Think this is the expected runners for July at current standings:
(Taking out Abashiri and Legal Eagle as doesn't seem they will run)

1) Black Arthur
2) Bela-Bela
3) Marinaresco
4) It's My Turn
5) French Navy
6) St Tropez
7) Rabada
Solid Speed
9) The Conglomerate
10) Nightingale
11) Mac De Lago
12) Deo Juvente
13) Mambo Mime
14) Rocketball

Then it's a fight on for minor places, the rest of the runners should be withdrawn as there really isn't anything below these above that can compeat in the same class, and would be better suited to other races this champions season. But I would say the 14 listed above, would be the definite runners as of now.

Amazing to think the mighty Mike De Kock probably won't have a runner in the July!

not one off my 3 horses that i got on early with

Thanks Bushy lol

You have Marinesco 3rd in the log ?

If anything the hype scrapes him in

We have to remember, the July is a selected field by a panel, not just on MR...that being said, the talk of town for Marinaresco, its current form and manner in which its won recent feature races, it will get in.

Don't get me wrong thou, I'm not a M fan.

My two bets both at 40/1:

It's My Turn
The Conglomerate

Only two bets I've taken for the July

After scratchings tomorrow at 11am...I predict both these horses will be trading 8/1 or less.

I can imagine after tomorrow's declarations, we will see the field cut down to around 30 entrants

It's my turn is already at 8/1 with hollywood.
Don't think The conglomerate will make the final field tho even tho trading at 16/1

Always interesting trying to predict the future; taking into account the previous log only, which will obviously change come this afternoon) and taking out some that I think will not run, this is how it looks:

1. Legal Eagle (??)
2. French Navy
3. Rabada - ??
4. Master Sabina
5. Punta Arenas
6. Bela Bela - ??
7. Deo Juvente
8. Mac de Lago
9. Solid Speed
10. Ten Gun Salute ??
11. The Conglomerate
12. It's My Turn
13. St Tropez
14. Dynamic
15. Mambo Mine
16. Marinaresco
17. Black Arthur

This list also excluded runners that were high on the log like Paterfamlias (5th). Prospect Strike (17) and New Predator (22) which I believe may not run


Applying some common sense, obviously Black Arthur, Bela Bela and to a lessor extent Marinaresco has since proved that they should have been way higher on the log - so this is my prediction:

1. Legal Eagle - Common sense to prevail - imo too much in his favor not too run
2. French Navy
3. Black Arthur
4. Rabada (seemed to stay well enough in the DN - not his fault the pace was so slow)
5. Master Sabina
6. Bela Bela - too good not to run imo
7. Deo Juvente
8. Mac de Lago
9. Marinaresco
10. St Tropez
11. It's My Turn

The final 3 positions to be fought put by Solid Speed (should get in if the connections want him to run), Punta Arenas, The Conglomerate and the 3 yr olds Ten Gun Salute and Mambo Mine

I don't think Abashiri will run - even if they can get him ready again, he would have a huge task at the weights.