2016 Durban July Log

shrek wrote:

SREDDY wrote:

Bob Brogan wrote:

shrek wrote: Will Marinaresco qualify for the July with only two grade 3 wins under the belt and not much more than a 100 MR. With only 16 runners will surely have to contest a KZN feature to get into the race.

They seem to be relying on the fact that he got close to Black Arthur :whistle:

Shogunner got in the July being a 1 time winner and had a merit rating of 106 at that point in time

There were 20 in the field then. I would be amazed when the next log comes out if he is anywhere near the top 20. IMO would need quite a few to drop out to get into the race.

But it does seem that quite a few will not stand their ground; by my reckoning out of the top 35 in the weights (log will probably differ) about 12 will not run; so a lot will depend on how the panel 'rates' Marinaresco against older horses like Punta Arenas, St Tropez, The Conglomerate, Dynastic Power, Master's Eye, Dynamic etc.

i have decided on New Predator as my July horse this year.

Sylvester wrote: i have decided on New Predator as my July horse this year.

Do you really think NP will get the July distance of 2200m.
Personally, I don't think NP will stay the Daily News distance of 2000m

My own dippy logic, Legal Eagle (MR 120) will be withdrawn, the ante-post strongly suggests this, 2/1 out to 10/1, bookies are not in the game to give money away. Other nominees point to the owner having more than adequate back-up in The Conglomerate (MR 101) and St Tropez (MR 99). Even if Legal Eagle stands his ground, that's no guarantee that he would win the July against well weighted 4 year olds and unknown/improving 3 year olds. I think they will have another tilt at the Met with Legal Eagle because the weight conditions are more in his favour.

In the event that Legal Eagle is withdrawn and French Navy standing his ground and becoming the new top weight, then won't likes of Marinaresco (MR 97) and Blck Arthur (MR 96) have their merit ratings adjusted up anyway - if this is correct, then you can see why the respective trainers are adopting the routes they have. More a hunch than fact, so keep backing your fancy, whatever it may be.

AllIsSecret wrote: The field is starting to shape up.

Legal Eagle
Abashiri
French Navy
It's My Turn
Master Sabina
Rabada
Samurai Blade
New Predator
Deo Juvente
Mac de Lago
Punta Arenas
Solid Speed
The Conglomerate

That is 13 of which Legal Eagle /Abashiri are doubtful on trainers/owners decisions. I reckon It's my Turn, Samurai Blade and New Predator might want to have good runs in the Daily News.

But I reckon you can add St Tropez and Dynamic as runners. Trainers/owners want Master's Eye and Dynastic Power to run but may have qualification issues. King of Pain, Gold Onyx and It is Written trying to scramble in through the Rising Sun but I doubt it ?

Then it is down to the 3 year-olds in the Woolavington and Daily News. Personally I think Nightingale is the only filly with a chance of running but even I don't think she will.

Black Arthur
Marinaresco
Mambo Mime
Ten Gun Salute
Celtic Captain
Prospect Strike
Rocketball
Sylvester the Cat
Nightingale

Negroamaro should go close to winning the Woolavington and a place in the field

bayern wrote: My own dippy logic, Legal Eagle (MR 120) will be withdrawn, the ante-post strongly suggests this, 2/1 out to 10/1, bookies are not in the game to give money away. Other nominees point to the owner having more than adequate back-up in The Conglomerate (MR 101) and St Tropez (MR 99). Even if Legal Eagle stands his ground, that's no guarantee that he would win the July against well weighted 4 year olds and unknown/improving 3 year olds. I think they will have another tilt at the Met with Legal Eagle because the weight conditions are more in his favour.

In the event that Legal Eagle is withdrawn and French Navy standing his ground and becoming the new top weight, then won't likes of Marinaresco (MR 97) and Blck Arthur (MR 96) have their merit ratings adjusted up anyway - if this is correct, then you can see why the respective trainers are adopting the routes they have. More a hunch than fact, so keep backing your fancy, whatever it may be.

Was Black Arthur not lifted to 106 after the guineas?

Re-adjusted the positioning taking out definite scratchings after the log was released and what has happened since the log was released).

Can see why Black Arthur and Marinaresco can qualify without any issues as will jump quite a few 3 year olds and then there are quite a few fillies who more than likely won't run plus quite a few horses with other targets ie Rising Sun or staying races or perhaps being jumped by Black Arthur/Marinaresco after their recent wins)

Also got to take into account that Jooste will probably only want +/- 3 in the race - talk is Marcus would choose St Stropez over Deo Juvente and The Conglomerate. Would also leave Rabada not running with Legal Eagle.

1. Legal Eagle (Doubtful)
2. Abashiri (Doubtful)
3. French Navy
4. Inara (Doubtful after Champions Challenge - Garden Province)
5. It's My Turn (10/14 in KZN Guineas)
6. Master Sabina (8/9 in a Pinnacle Stakes Prep behind Stonehenge/Rainy Day Blues)
7. Rabada (2nd in KZN Guineas)
8. Silver Mountain (As good as scratched - Tibouchina/Garden Province)
9. Samurai Blade
10. New Predator (Won Gr2 Drill Hall Stakes)
11. Paterfamillias (Rising Sun Gold Challenge)
12. Deo Juvente
13. Mac de Lago
14. Bela-Bela (Woolavington main target + Snaith has other preferred runners)
15. Negroamaro (Doubtful with fillies features)
16. Olma (Doubtful)
17. Punta Arenas (Mediocre run in Drill Hall- Prep Run)
18. Stonehenge (6/9 in Pinnacle Stakes)

19. Solid Speed (WON GR2 Betting World 1900 - should qualify)
20. Trophy Wife (Doubtful)
21. The Conglomerate (6th Drill Hall- 4th BW1900)
22. Romany Prince (Hasn't run since the Classic in Joburg ?)
23. Master's Eye (14/16 in BW1900)
24. Dynastic Power (15/16 in BW1900)
25. Deputy Jud (Going for staying races ? Target the Track and Ball Derby)
26. Gold Onyx (Last Drill Hall - 9th BW1900)
27. Prospect Strike (7/14 in KZN Guineas)
28. Halve the Deficit (Mediocre run in BW1900)
29. Ten Gun Salute (4th in KZN Guineas)
30. Disco Al (Mediocre run in BW1900 and a stayer 4/4 in Ramsden's mini trial)
31. Balance Sheet (Going for staying races)
32. St Tropez (2nd in BW1900)
33. Celtic Captain (6/14 KZN Guineas)
34. Sylvester the Cat (13/14 KZN Guineas)
35. Dynamic (3rd in BW1900)
36. Diesel Jet (didn't go for the Champions Challenge)
37. Mambo Mime (3rd in KZN Guineas)
38. Trading Profit
39. Marinaresco (WON GR3 Winter Classic)
40. Cape Speed (Not even running in the Daily News)
41. Black Arthur (WON GR2 KZN Guineas)

* Rocketball, It is Written, Brooklyn Brawler added since
** Nightingale quite a fair way down

Bob Brogan wrote:

AllIsSecret wrote: The field is starting to shape up.

Legal Eagle
Abashiri
French Navy
It's My Turn
Master Sabina
Rabada
Samurai Blade
New Predator
Deo Juvente
Mac de Lago
Punta Arenas
Solid Speed
The Conglomerate

That is 13 of which Legal Eagle /Abashiri are doubtful on trainers/owners decisions. I reckon It's my Turn, Samurai Blade and New Predator might want to have good runs in the Daily News.

But I reckon you can add St Tropez and Dynamic as runners. Trainers/owners want Master's Eye and Dynastic Power to run but may have qualification issues. King of Pain, Gold Onyx and It is Written trying to scramble in through the Rising Sun but I doubt it ?

Then it is down to the 3 year-olds in the Woolavington and Daily News. Personally I think Nightingale is the only filly with a chance of running but even I don't think she will.

Black Arthur
Marinaresco
Mambo Mime
Ten Gun Salute
Celtic Captain
Prospect Strike
Rocketball
Sylvester the Cat
Nightingale

Negroamaro should go close to winning the Woolavington and a place in the field

Think she has been ridden too handy in recent times but she must have a very decent chance in the Woolavington. Whether she is a July runner even if she wins is another story. I suppose if she does well and New Predator is found wanting distance wise then trainer and owner might want a runner in the July but I would rather leave her for the Met as a 4YO if she proves she is good enough.

Is the Woolavigntonnot one of the Guarantee spots ?

Why is Abashiri Doubtful ?

Bob Brogan wrote: Why is Abashiri Doubtful ?

According to the Azzman himself in an interview with Andrew Bon, nothing has been decided, but the horse had a 3 week holiday and depending on when the interview was recorded, came into light work yesterday (or will come into light work this coming Monday)

They will 'let the horse tell them'; between the lines it seems that the owner wants to run, but the trainer is not convinced - will contest the July 'fresh' if he does, otherwise will not run in KZN and go for the QP / Met

Bob Brogan wrote:

bayern wrote: My own dippy logic, Legal Eagle (MR 120) will be withdrawn, the ante-post strongly suggests this, 2/1 out to 10/1, bookies are not in the game to give money away. Other nominees point to the owner having more than adequate back-up in The Conglomerate (MR 101) and St Tropez (MR 99). Even if Legal Eagle stands his ground, that's no guarantee that he would win the July against well weighted 4 year olds and unknown/improving 3 year olds. I think they will have another tilt at the Met with Legal Eagle because the weight conditions are more in his favour.

In the event that Legal Eagle is withdrawn and French Navy standing his ground and becoming the new top weight, then won't likes of Marinaresco (MR 97) and Blck Arthur (MR 96) have their merit ratings adjusted up anyway - if this is correct, then you can see why the respective trainers are adopting the routes they have. More a hunch than fact, so keep backing your fancy, whatever it may be.

Was Black Arthur not lifted to 106 after the guineas?

Yes BA now a 106 - and I see LE has gone 15/1 :ohmy: