LD's Betting Diary - Chapter 2

Result Posted
EMPIRE OF THE MOON - Winner
SEMRA - 2nd

What a disaster. I did get some back on the place bet, but not much. Hopefully my luck turns around...

Like the movie character Rocky, I am back on my feet after a bloody beating from some heavy blows. Can I land some blows of myself today? The computer system likes...

Race 1 SEVENTH VIRTUE
Race 4 EXCITEMENT SEEKER
Race 5 GREY LIGHT Currently the Favourite

At the moment only the one looks likely to start as the favourite. Grey Light has Marcus up and he has done very well when he has been riding one of this systems selections, hopefully his good form continues. C'mon Anton, bring this one home lonely!

LD - I don't believe one can make any money backing favorites - even using very careful filtering - the more you bet the more you will lose

colins wrote: LD - I don't believe one can make any money backing favorites - even using very careful filtering - the more you bet the more you will lose

not according to the It's A Rush crowd :evil:

Very entertaining..

SEVENTH VIRTUE is another of the none favourites winning without my money on it. As it turns out, if I had been backing the ones that were not favourites I'd be ahead... This game is making me crazy.

If the readers of this sad thread are wondering, "why must they be favourites for a bet to be placed?" It's because of what is known as the favourite longshot bias in betting. Google "favourite longshot bias" if you don't know what I'm on about. Mr H, I don't know how you do it, or if you are a pro, but your tipping has been very good lately. Well done.

Ok my money is down. R40 on tote for a place too.

Okay, I must confess I've had a few beers after celebrating that victory. Thanks Anton Marcus yet again. Although the system is still in the red, it's looking a bit better. I'm really looking forward to the next few plays.

Okay, so here are the all important numbers after 3 R20 win bets and 3 R40 place bets.

Win bet loss... R-22.14 Strike rate 1/3 = 33.33%

Place bet loss... R-15.08 Strike 2/3 = 66.67%


So it's not so bad, with a bit of luck I'll get it into the green. I still have 17 bets to go...

I've had a bit of time to delve deeper into the system to look for possible improvements because I want to create a new and improved system once the 20 bets from the current system are done. It seems that if I had loosened my criteria just a little that the selection must be favourite in the betting, to rather that it is at least the top two in the betting, I would have fared better. Of course the current sample is very small, but I like to keep looking and trying to improve it.

The system made a profit during the last Greyville Polytrack meeting. So I'm very excited to see how it goes at today's meeting. I have entered the numbers and this is what has come up...

Race No Horse Last SP Off Time Notes

1 7 WONDERFUL CROSS 1 12:45 Currently the favourite
3 7 KITH AND KIN 5 13:55 3rd Fav
7 6 FLYING LOOT (AUS) 2.5 16:20 Currently the favourite

At the moment it looks like I'll have two bets! I'm really hoping that today is the day the system starts showing a profit.

I see that Wonderful Cross is currently not the tote favourite, so maybe the price may drift. I'll have to keep an eye on it. I also see it has not received too much early betting support on Interbet. I see there is a bit on Flying loot, so that looks like my best chance for today, although I don't seem to do well when Delpech is on one of my selections. Hopefully he'll win for me today on this one.