NHRA..worst handicapping ever?

In my opinion, the handicapping of the Gold Challenge Gr1 is the biggest disgrace by the handicappers in a long time.

The new rating of Big City Life(114) is 118, probably destroying his chances in the July. Why his connections have not gone absolutely bonkers is a mystery to me.

His rating of 118 raises a few questions:
1. since when is 0.25 lengths 2 points?
2. BCL 118 and Blue Tiger 116, +4 and +6 respectively, who then is the line horse?
3. NO horse in the race runs it's rating?
4. There is no line horse, what's the foundation of understanding this race?

With all due respect to the courageous Blue Tiger who effectively runs a 118 here according the the NHRA, what are the chances that he suddenly is one of the best to ever grace the SA turf, a mere 2 points off Pocket Power at his very best? Better than recent champion Dancers Daughter and even better than Dynasty (both 114).

Perhaps the rumours are true, they just make this shit up? Whatever, it's a crock with no logic and no foundation. The numbers show they have no clue about this race, and have just clutched at any nonsense.

[code:tunvagel]
============================================================================
FIN HRS AGE MSS BMS WFA LBH MR Change RaceMR

---

1 BIG CITY LIFE 4 60 0.0 0.25 114 +4 118
2 BLUE TIGER 5 60 0.0 0.25 110 +6 116(?)
3 POCKET POWER 7 60 0.0 2.25 120 -6 114
4 SMART BANKER 5 60 0.0 2.30 116 -3 113
5 RUDRA 5 60 0.0 5.30 116 -9 107
6 REGAL RANSOM 4 60 0.0 6.80 112 -8 104
7 KAPIL 7 60 0.0 6.95 117 ** 104
8 FABIANI 4 60 0.0 7.05 111 -7 104
9 TROPICAL EMPIRE 7 60 0.0 9.30 118 ** 99
10 MOTHER RUSSIA 4 57.5 2.5 18.30 109 ** 76
============================================================================
[/code:tunvagel]

Line horse?

1st horse: If BCL was the line horse, then changes for first four are 0 +4 -10 -7
2nd horse: If Blue Tiger was line horse, then changes are 0 0 -14 -11
3rd horse: Impossible to use Pocket Power (beaten highest rated horse in SA) as line horse.

Official changes are: +4 +6 -6 -3, never seen anything like it.

Scotia, care to make yourself busy and ask Mr Vee Moodley to comment about the obvious and ongoing breakdown of the system?

TM

Will do Jack

With all due respect, JD, I found this a particularly hard race to handicap - either both BCL and BT ran way above their ratings, or PP and SB ran way below their ratings - perhaps the handicapper did not find either scenario as the 'best' one and just sort of went for the middle ground - so BCL and BT ran slightly above their ratings and PP and SB slightly below their ratings.

Personally, I 'feel' that both PP and SB ran way below their ratings, but would have been more comfortable with this evaluation if the horses behind them (e.g. Rudra) ran closer to them.

Would be nice to get the ofiicial viewpoint.

I am not in the office currently and will get one of the handicappers to
respond to you Dave by latest close of business on Monday.
Vee

Note! Vee last work day 24th June

Frodo

I think you are spot on... it is an impossible race to rate. If you see it, and I see it, then for the pro's it must be basic. I don't think the correct answer is to put up two runners by a combined 10 points because they find themselves in front where the pacemaker set a fast pace. Responsible and "official" handicappers should know better.

It is very clear that the ratings of the two is not "based" on anything, in other words the numbers they used is just as debatable as any other number. They just guessed. Those guesses could cost the connections real money in the future, and the handicappers have to err on the side of reason.

These are older horses and the chance that they have made miraculous discoveries of ability is unlikely, don't you think?

Perhaps Karel Miedema wants to contribute here. I cannot believe such a fiasco would have slipped under the radar with him.

Jack Dash there are new more lenient ways for the connections of horses to appeal MR increases. If Kotzen believes he is unfairly treated, these avenues are open to him.

I do agree that the handicapper "punishes" horses too quickly and Blue Tiger is a perfect example of that. He is rated 1kg off champions yet will most likely never win a GR1 race.

The key to this race may lie in the time.Although at first glance it looks like they have gone a good pace,the fact is that the final time is nearly 2 seconds slower than the last 4 runnings of this race.

2010 Big City Life 96.45
2009 Pocket Power 94.63
2008 Dancer's Daughter 94.74
2007 Succesful Bidder 93.32
2006 National Spirit 94.75

Clearly this was actually a slow run race,and Blue Tiger and Big City Life were in the right place at the right time.

118 for Big City Life and 116 for Blue Tiger are laughable ratings.

You cannot compare race times, other than on the same day.
Doing it over a period of years is mindless.

The false rail gets moved out all around the bend, but starting stalls are not adjusted.
The racing operators do not deem it necessary to publish the actual distance.
Then again, that is to be expected from the GC amateurs (I've probably asked a thousand times, even in board meetings. Deaf ears!)

The race is easily explained.
Front runner sets solid, even pace, and gets away.
Tailwind up the straight, and he's not stopping.
He probably runs the last 600m in 36 or less.
When you are five lengths off that, you need to run 35 or less to get on terms, or faster to win.
It becomes a physical impossibility.
BCL and PP did their best, BCL just caught BT, but PP was too far out despite racing handy very early on (it's not the first time he was caught out that way at Clairwood - apart from the fact that he's showing that this season he's not achieving the ratings he did last year).

Blue Tiger's jockey Domeyer deserves great credit for his enterprising ride. Shades of Michael Robert's Guineas win on Sea Warrior (although there the wind blew in opposite ways).

Bass must be choking with laughter at the new MR's, now that the handicapper has effectively destroyed BCL's July chances.
He's an 118 only in your dreams (as is Blue Tiger's 116 performance; the handicapper had him 113 two runs ago, then dropped him in two steps to 110 in this race - now up to 116? He's a well exposed 5yo, almost 6yo - they don't improve out of the blue).

The only way to rate this race is around the first two horses.
Pick one, make him the line horse, then adjust all others accordingly.
Blue Tiger at his MR 110 is probably the way to go, or 113 if the handicapper wants to believe his previous mistake again. Look at Blue Tiger's sequence of MR's (and remember the mandatory extra 3 points everyone got except Pocket Power by the looks of it) and then try to explain the handicapper's thinking - tea leaves?

Blue Tiger at 113 would make BCL 114, which he was rated at before this race was run.

This was just one of those races, where race tactics and jockeys reactions (or lack of it) overruled all else.
Putting ratings up the way the handicapper did here is just plain idiotic.
Wrong length/weight adjustment, and a guess rating level without an apparent line-horse.

BCL to 118 means an extra 2kg in the July, equivalent to at least 3 lengths.
Why on earth didn't the connections object?

.

I believe that the handicappers thinking is fairly apparent. Blue Tiger (2nd) cannot possibly be the line horse as he has run way above his rating over this trip. Conversely, Pocket Power (3rd) has run way below his rating. That leaves you with Smart Banker (4th) who is the obvious line horse having been unbeaten over this distance prior to this run.

Smart Banker who raced of a 116 was beaten 2L (4lbs) by Big City Life who raced off a 114. That makes Big City Life a 118 which is how Blue Tiger then became a 116. Pocket Power was then dropped to a 119.

The problem horse in the race is Tropical Empire as to my mind there is no way that he is a 118. If he is a 118 which the handicappers clearly believe that he is, then one can hardly argue about Big City Life being a 118 if you consider that he is a quadruple G1 winner (Cape Derby, Daily News, July and Gold Challenge).

In drawing comparisons to horses of days gone by, one must also bear in mind that the entire population in the major centres was recently raised by 3 lbs.

I don’t believe that any appeal by the connections of Big City Life would have the remotest chance of success particularly bearing in mind that Karel who sits on the Handicapping Appeal Panel has (like myself ) just disqualified himself!

So is this what it takes to get you out of retirement on here Robert?Welcome back(

I see it's been 2 years JAP.

I actually got a call from our friendly bookmaker in the Cape earlier telling me about a post on this site about Fort Vogue being a doubtful starter and asking if it was true. When I went to check it out just now I saw this contentious post so though that I would explain what I though were the handicappers thinking on the race in question.

I'll probably regret it later!