The MR is intended to reflect a horse’s ability when it runs to 100% of its ability. Thus, the rating will be raised immediately on an improved performance, but will only be dropped after persistent evidence that the horse can no longer meet its previous best rating. Even then, the drops will be in small increments.
River Romeo was given an 84 when winning as a juvenile in open company last year. The horses that he beat that day were moderate, and he seemingly failed to make the WFA improvement over his next few starts. Prior to his run on 25th April he ran in the Derby Trial and Derby. He ran ok in the Trial, and many of those in front of him have improved significantly since then, so his run 7L behind Son of Raj now looks good. He was tailed off in the Derby. On 25th he ran in a handicap against some well exposed runners and his rating was appropriately dropped.
Luthuli had won his maiden back in August 2022 when given 72, and had had 8 below par runs since then, dropping to 64, before winning his last start before the race on 25th and going back to a 72. The handicapper won’t drop him after that win for a few starts irrespective of how badly he runs.
River Romeo will now be bumped up 8 points for his easy win on Thursday.
Young stayers are difficult to rate. At some point, they will strengthen up and can show remarkable improvement, and will be ahead of the handicapper.
Inconsistent horses like Luthuli make the MR system difficult to manage. We have rules regarding inconsistent running but they are never enforced. Whether the horse is inherently inconsistent, or whether certain trainers deliberately contrive for them to run badly until their rating drops before having a proper go is hard to prove.
Thus I don’t think that the handicappers made a mistake rating the race of 25th. The top
4 were rated correctly using the 2nd horse as the line horse, while Luthuli which ran 5th and below his rating, was not dropped due to having won his previous start.
My take out as a punter is:
Ignore Luthuli until he drops back to the mid 60s after which start including him at long prices.
River Romeo should be respected as he now is strengthening up and could end up a useful stayer, vindicating the decisions to run him in 3yo staying feature races.
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