PE stakes are better than Cape Town and this has attracted 18 raiders. Interesting to see 9 races and a Cape Town favourite in each one. I am pretty sure that this must constitute a new record of sorts.
Mossel wrote: Yes Bob even me but the thing in P.E is most of the time they flop there the raiders and are false favorites
Mossel I dont have the stats on Cape runners in PE nor do I feel the need to do this myself. What I am willing to put my last cent on however is to back Cape horses in PE features. I am pretty sure that those horses win % are way higher than the national average. Cape horses carry far stronger form than PE there can be no argument about that.
Regarding the comments on Cape raiders, while they are often priced up a bit too short, they have a very good strike rate in PE on the turf. Horses relocating from stronger centres have also usually done well. There is no doubt that the PE merit ratings are too high compared to CT and Gauteng. This is because the same horses generally run against each other, without a "season' for significant numbers of visitors and the winners get put up faster than the losers get dropped. You thus have an upward drift of the whole population. The NHRA officials have tried to argue that there is a downward drift over time, but this is nonsense. With the introduction of lower and lower division races, particularly in KZN, more bad horses have been kept in training because they can earn. Hence the average rating has come down, but only because there are lots of bad older horses around. The average strength of 3 and 4 year olds has not deteriorated.
The weak yearling market over the past couple of years, however, has meant that better quality yearlings have been bought by PE trainers as there have been more available in their price range. The recent crops of 2 yos racing in PE have thus been quite good. There have also been more opportunities to buy nice horses in training from the bigger centres.
With the CT stakes now lagging, and meetings being washed out, we now see increased raiding not just of the feature races and a few travelling companions, but ordinary races. The R60k BSA juvenile bonus also explains why the babies are travelling.
The key for form study today is thus trying to assess the relative merits of the CT and local horses.
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I am not talking about graded races I am talking about maidens and mr races how often do you see a 5-10 cape horse flop in pe. Many times. Don't know the stats but I've seen it plenty times and before you tell me it happens all over ,all I am saying is Cape horses that travel to pe and yes it happens all over but it's the same kak that runs against each other every week where it happens
Mossel wrote: I am not talking about graded races I am talking about maidens and mr races how often do you see a 5-10 cape horse flop in pe. Many times. Don't know the stats but I've seen it plenty times and before you tell me it happens all over ,all I am saying is Cape horses that travel to pe and yes it happens all over but it's the same kak that runs against each other every week where it happens
I think over time you will find that 5/10 Cape maidens also have significantly higher win rates than the national average of winning favourites. I have made one observation in PE with maiden horses raiding or coming from other centres. If the horse has any type of form in Jhb or CT- by this I would say as a guide single figures in lengths behind the winners at those centres - then they generally will win at least their maiden race barring problems, sometimes winning a few. The KZN form is very suspect however and this dovetails with what PeterD has highlighted in his comments. I find KZN horses with moderate maiden form struggle in PE and rarely do well. Of course there will be exceptions its a general rule I apply that has stood me well for years.
A question for PeterD. about training costs between CT and PE. Could you give an indication % wise if actual numbers are deemed sensitive, how does a top PE yard ( Smith Greeff ) compare to a top CT yard ( Snaith Bass )? If you have a moderate horse in CT i cant see any reason not to relocate particularly in the Cape wet season.
Two question marks about the CT raiders- have they had enough work with the recent rain interruptions, and how have they travelled? No visiting jockeys allowed, so they will all be ridden by unfamiliar riders, which can also make a difference.
Race 1 Coffee Break ran against useful older opposition last time, and is the horse to beat, but I would not be rushing to back it at the skinny odds. Crystal City looks the best of the local ones. Our colt, Jean Paul has been difficult to settle in some of his races, but he has the ability to surprise.
Race 2 Queen of Shadows finished in front of Trip to Ireland on debut and has more scope for improvement so is a worthy favourite. Royal Oasis has run in quite strong company, but quite a few lengths off. Ladonna Mia looks the best of the locals but the raiders should win this one.
Race 3 Bel Punto is a well tried maiden, but his latest run was a good one, and the winner of that race ran well out the maidens on Wednesday. If he is fit he should win despite the wide draw. Jaspero always looks a winner and then folds when the chips are down, but is overdue his maiden win. The 2yo Windsock has a tough task but cant be ignored. Red Bishop has upset potential.
Race 4 On Your Marks is too short a price for me, although if fit is the one to beat. He seems to have Serious Fun held on CT form. King's Fort, Hokum or immaculate could score one for the locals.
Race 5 Love Happens is well in despite top weight, but faces stiff competition from Heartbreak Hotel and Master Supreme. Rattle Mouse lost form in Durban, but is very capable if repeating her run behind She's a Keeper. Super Noir is improving and carrying no weight.
Race 6 On his run in the Winter Classic, Somerset Maugham looks impossible to oppose.
race 7 Casino Queen has run some good races but this is a competitive lineup and I think she is too short priced.
If Springs of Carmel can find her 2yo form its no race. What a Winner and Mr Cobbs are both hard knockers.
Race 8 The smart 2yo Danilo Danilovitch takes on some strong locals in Regimental, Evies First and Stranger Danger, but I think that he is good enough off a 93 rating.
Race 9 Aye Aye has run two good races over 1400m behind decent winners, and she is suited to 1200m. However, Mesmerising Moon is a big runner at the weights. Subterfuge could not win a maiden in CT and I think she is an optimistic entry. Our filly Vic Falls takes on older, and I think that she has a squeak, but hard to assess. She is fit and well, although she had her first AHS shot since her last race.
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