Durban July First Entries this week?

July 2 months away but Muzi on WOA and Sma on GTG

Cochrane wrote: July 2 months away but Muzi on WOA and Sma on GTG

Where do you see that ?

Frodo wrote: I think it will be a tough choice - all 3 of them have good chances - maybe some doubt if Running Brave stays the 2200, so I think he won't choose that one - but the other two is for me I just have some doubts about War of Athena in this class - yes she is the Triple Tiara winner - but who did she beat ? So if I were Muzi, I'd opt for Got the Greenlight

Memory not the best?

Ran a short head to Mk’s pride and one could argue from a better draw that day or with a bit more ground she beats him, his form since then is well advertised and proven. Beat GTG as well in the Hawaii.

She’s also beaten Queen Supreme very very easily, dual Gr1 winner, and if you take lines on how Princess Calla ran behind QS in the Paddock compared to her run in the Met, that shows War of Athena in a very favourable light.

Frodo wrote:

Cochrane wrote: July 2 months away but Muzi on WOA and Sma on GTG

Where do you see that ?

Frodo, no evidence but spoke to a usual suspect.

GTG is currently my top selection off 124 for the July so Iam going with it.

MasterOfMyFate wrote:

Frodo wrote: I think it will be a tough choice - all 3 of them have good chances - maybe some doubt if Running Brave stays the 2200, so I think he won't choose that one - but the other two is for me I just have some doubts about War of Athena in this class - yes she is the Triple Tiara winner - but who did she beat ? So if I were Muzi, I'd opt for Got the Greenlight

Memory not the best?

Ran a short head to Mk’s pride and one could argue from a better draw that day or with a bit more ground she beats him, his form since then is well advertised and proven. Beat GTG as well in the Hawaii.

She’s also beaten Queen Supreme very very easily, dual Gr1 winner, and if you take lines on how Princess Calla ran behind QS in the Paddock compared to her run in the Met, that shows War of Athena in a very favourable light.

Memory not that bad thanks - and you know what they say about opinions and arseh*les :dry:

Let me argue the points you made (your opinion) - yes WoA ran a shd to MK's Pride - but that was MK's 4th run only - and imo he has improved about 10 lengths since then (and the handicapper agrees as he won the Hawaii off a rating of 117 - and btw beat GtG by 1/2 a length receiving 5 kgs - and that was GtG's first run since the July last year over a trip arguably short of his best) - 3rd in that race was Flying Carpet (giving WoA 2 ,5 kgs) who was subsequently beaten almost 3 lengths by Malmoos at level weights in the Classic - so imo not that great a run by WoA as would first appear

As you point out correctly, WoA then did beat Queen Supreme - receiving all of 9 kgs - and it could be argued that QS was using that run as a prep after a break of 5 months

And you mention Princess Calla - well in the Met she was receiving 8.5 kgs from Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion and Sovereign Spirit - and was beaten 1.4 lengths by SS - in the July PC will receive only 3 kgs from SS :dry: yes WFA from Jan to July does come into it - but I still think that SS is big value at current odds

The one red light ito SS's performance in the Met, is that it may have been a fluke - so I'll certainly be watching his prep runs into the July with interest

Let's say these make the final field and their MR's are what they are here and now :-

Malmoos - 125
Kommetdieding - 117
Linebacker - 115

surely they all cannot carry the same weight, (say) 53.00kg? Again, bar injury, Linebacker, if i understand the acceptance rules correctly, is a guaranteed runner without having to increase his rating/win a race to qualify, should be the one to be with, especially if he will carry less than the others in the above scenario?

I have decided Summer Pudding is my July Horse.

bayern wrote: Let's say these make the final field and their MR's are what they are here and now :-

Malmoos - 125
Kommetdieding - 117
Linebacker - 115

surely they all cannot carry the same weight, (say) 53.00kg? Again, bar injury, Linebacker, if i understand the acceptance rules correctly, is a guaranteed runner without having to increase his rating/win a race to qualify, should be the one to be with, especially if he will carry less than the others in the above scenario?

As per the conditions (and if RB runs as top weight), Malmoos will carry 53.5 kgs, Kommetdieding 53 kgs and Linebacker 53 kgs - hence my point that the Cape 3 yr olds will be under sufferance - and that is as there ratings stand today - it could still of course go up or down

Frodo wrote:

bayern wrote: Let's say these make the final field and their MR's are what they are here and now :-

Malmoos - 125
Kommetdieding - 117
Linebacker - 115

surely they all cannot carry the same weight, (say) 53.00kg? Again, bar injury, Linebacker, if i understand the acceptance rules correctly, is a guaranteed runner without having to increase his rating/win a race to qualify, should be the one to be with, especially if he will carry less than the others in the above scenario?

As per the conditions (and if RB runs as top weight), Malmoos will carry 53.5 kgs, Kommetdieding 53 kgs and Linebacker 53 kgs - hence my point that the Cape 3 yr olds will be under sufferance - and that is as their ratings stand today - it could still of course go up or down

Thanks to everyone for their views, much appreciated

I agree, first class inputs and the JULY always gets the punters talking months in advance of any other SA race.

After this weekend's feature race results, still think Summer Pudding and Malmoos will stand their ground? With all of GTGL, Rainbow Bridge and Linebacker winning, the ante-post betting will change quite a bit?