Durban July First Entries this week?

The 3 yo colts carry 53kg min and 57kg max. The WFA in July is 3kg for 3yo over 2200m. The top rated horse is 134, so a 3yo colt up to a rating of 126 must carry 53kg. At this stage Jet Dark will carry 55kg, and all the others will carry 53kg unless their ratings go above 126. In the Guineas, the top rated horse entered is Copper Mountain on 121, so its extremely unlikely that the winner, unless it wins by a wide margin, will get to the 126 mark. That only leaves the Daily News as a likely race for the main contenders to have their ratings increased.
The weights are fixed on 15th June, after the Gold Challenge on 12th June. This is the race to avoid for 3yos that don't want their ratings hammered, as they will meet the top older horses at WFA and if they run close (as they should) will get punished.

As things stand (and there could still be changes depending on who is going to be the top weight - but for now let's assume Rainbow Bridge at an official MR of 134 will be top weight) many of the the 3 yr olds like Princess Calla, Kommetdieding, Second Base, Linebacker and Rascallion will be under sufferance; and given that both Malmoos and Captain's Ransom are unlikely to run, I do prefer the chances of the well weighted older horsea like Sovereign Spirit, Summer Pudding and of course Got the Greenlight

Would it be fair to say that Rainbow Bridge's rating of 134 was not achieved over 2200m, the bookies don't believe he is the likely winner, drifting alarmingly, not overly perturbed by that rating in the greater scheme because he is suspect getting the distance, let alone carrying 60.0kgs - will he stand his ground? Not too long ago, Eric Sands was waxing lyrical about Golden Ducat.

I do enjoy these type of discussions - I agree RB too high; for what it's worth I have RB at 127, Belgarion at 125, Summer Pudding at 124, with Got the Greenlight at 116 - I base my selection of Sovereign Spirit on the Met run where I have him running to 121 - so imo will be very well in off 55 kgs

The Cape 3 yr old colts have me baffled - for me I have Jet Dark at 116, Kommetdieding at 112, Linebacker at 109 and Rascallion at 107; I also suspect (but have no real proof) that they are (bar Jet Dark) not as strong as the fillies - I have Captain's Ransom at 117 and Princess Calla at 113. I would love to see Kommetdieding, Linebacker and Rascallion take on Malmoos and Second Base in the Daily News (but they may not all take their place) - that will tell me if I am right or wrong about the Cape 3 yr old colts - for now I think they will be under sufferance in the July

Frodo raises the two critical questions:
1. How good are the Cape 3yos
2. How accurate/ useful are the official MRs of the top horses.

I think that the Cape 3yos are top class, based on Jet Dark winning the QP, the collateral form through Linebacker after his close second to Malmoos in the Concorde, and Malmoos’s subsequent Gauteng exploits.

One of the big problems with our official MRs is that horses are given a single rating irrespective of distance. The rating earned over a horse’s optimum trip is then used as the base when that horse is beaten over a different trip, which can lead to crazy outcomes. For my own purposes, I assign different ratings for different distances where appropriate, as that is the only way to make sense of results and properly describe horses’ true ability.
A good example is Variety Club and Jackson. Variety Club earned a proper international rating of 126 over the mile. Jackson was always 2kg inferior to him over a mile. ( 122). However, it was the other way round over 2000m, where Jackson was 1.5 kg better than VC. My ratings were VC 126/ 121 And Jackson 122/ 124 for 1600/2000.

All of Rainbow Bridge, Belgarion, Do It Again and Golden Ducat are better over 2000m than 1600m, even though they are very classy milers. The same applies to Summer Pudding.
Jet Dark beat the older boys fair and square in the QP, but I believe his rating of 130 was too high because none of them ran to their official ratings which were earned over longer trips, and not all of them were at their peak for the QP as the Met was their main mission. This year was also weird because of the COVID impact on the Durban season being run later than usual, which meant that the big July horses had less time off between the Durban and CT seasons than normal.

Linebacker is at least as good over 2000m as he is over 1600m, as is Malmoos. At level weights, I don’t think that there will be much between them in the July. BUT Malmoos has had a hard Gauteng season, so the Cape horses should be much fresher for the Durban season.
If Russian Rock doesn’t learn to settle properly in his races, he will have no chance. If he does behave, we may well not yet have seen the best of him.
Kommetdieding has done nothing wrong, and may well yet prove to be the best of the lot, but sadly was not able to run in the Cape Derby. Hopefully all goes well for him in the Durban season and we will see how good he is.
Jet Dark is unknown beyond a mile, but I doubt whether he can give the others 2kg in the July.

Of the older horses, at this stage Do It Again and Gotthegreenlight look best weighted to me.
I will wait for the Daily News to decide on the 3year olds, but at this stage the July shortlist must be Linebacker, Malmoos and Kommetdieding if all come in on 53kg. Captain’s Ransom must also be considered, but at 126 she will have to meet the boys at level weights, and she is untested as yet beyond the mile.

If they both run , Muzi choice of either War Of Athena or Gotthegreenlight will be very interesting

Craig Pienaar wrote: If they both run , Muzi choice of either War Of Athena or Gotthegreenlight will be very interesting

I was actually looking at Muzi’s potential rides in the July yesterday.

As things stand GTG will carry 55 and must be the horse to beat, WOA will carry 52 and won’t be under sufferance. RB will carry 52.5 getting 5kg from SP and must come into the equation.

Muzi’s thoughts on all this will be interesting.

Muzi will be riding War Of Athena.


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Mac wrote: Muzi will be riding War Of Athena.


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Do you know that for a fact, Mac (I'm a poet )

Frodo wrote:

Mac wrote: Muzi will be riding War Of Athena.


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Do you know that for a fact, Mac (I'm a poet )

It will become a fact when he declares he is riding Athena.


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I doubt it would be hard for him WOA 5 graded wins for Muzi this season. if she runs in July he rides that

Cochrane wrote:

Craig Pienaar wrote: If they both run , Muzi choice of either War Of Athena or Gotthegreenlight will be very interesting

I was actually looking at Muzi’s potential rides in the July yesterday.

As things stand GTG will carry 55 and must be the horse to beat, WOA will carry 52 and won’t be under sufferance. RB will carry 52.5 getting 5kg from SP and must come into the equation.

Muzi’s thoughts on all this will be interesting.

I think it will be a tough choice - all 3 of them have good chances - maybe some doubt if Running Brave stays the 2200, so I think he won't choose that one - but the other two is for me I just have some doubts about War of Athena in this class - yes she is the Triple Tiara winner - but who did she beat ? So if I were Muzi, I'd opt for Got the Greenlight