R4, Kommetdieding at the current odds 1/1 must be the bet of the year thus far, here's why.
If we look at it's last race, who he beat, and the collateral form-lines, this is a pointer.
Last race, Russian Rock finished third, next time out, Russian Rock wins the Grade 1 Cape Guineas. We won't dissect the merits of that race, that's for another day.
The horse who finished fourth in the Cape Guineas, Jet Dark, comes out and wins the Grade 1 Queens Plate.
Here's what i find scary, not being an authority on breeding, and this being a late foal, this horse should not be winning over the sprint distances, but he has so twice with relative ease. The last being particularly impressive, considering he was slow away and won by an extending margin. Seem to think the sire, Elusive Fort, won a Grade 1 race over distance (1800 to 2000m), hoping Naresh can confirm this, he has so much racing history at his finger tips, thanks in advance.
All things being equal, Kommetdieding should win.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
I have already backed Firealley - receiving 6 kgs from the new Wunderkind should prove more than enough - and if you want to use Russian Rock to compare - Firealley was beaten a shorthead by RR - so again - receiving 6 kgs from Kommetdieding should be more than enough; also Firealley ran a length behind the LQP winner only receiving 1 kg
If Kommetdieding wins tomorrow - well then I think he has a future
bayern wrote: R4, Kommetdieding at the current odds 1/1 must be the bet of the year thus far, here's why.
If we look at it's last race, who he beat, and the collateral form-lines, this is a pointer.
Last race, Russian Rock finished third, next time out, Russian Rock wins the Grade 1 Cape Guineas. We won't dissect the merits of that race, that's for another day.
The horse who finished fourth in the Cape Guineas, Jet Dark, comes out and wins the Grade 1 Queens Plate.
Here's what i find scary, not being an authority on breeding, and this being a late foal, this horse should not be winning over the sprint distances, but he has so twice with relative ease. The last being particularly impressive, considering he was slow away and won by an extending margin. Seem to think the sire, Elusive Fort, won a Grade 1 race over distance (1800 to 2000m), hoping Naresh can confirm this, he has so much racing history at his finger tips, thanks in advance.
All things being equal, Kommetdieding should win.
I posted this when Kommetdieding won its second run
Just some additional information on Elusive Fort and Kommetdieding for those not in the know.
Elusive Fort dam is Ever Seeking. Ever Seeking was in Colin Lee stable and raced in purple colours with a green cap.
Ever Seeking dam is Epoque and her granddam is Elysee. Elysee produced all of Epoque, Ecurie and Empress Club all of which are Grade 1 winners.
Kommetdieding granddam is Dacha who was a hard knocking filly from the Cape who won some listed features and maybe a Grade 3 event.
I had a bet on Kommetdieding which made the win more sweet.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Magi, bayern
I make this race a bit more open and will be taking a quartet.
Captain Flinders - won and improved again in the last 2 runs with the appie (career high mark)
Man About Town - as dropped 5kgs in the handicap since Nov. Not distance suited but blinkers helped last time.
Kommetdieding - could be anything but could struggle to give older Arctic weight
Arctic Drift - ran in the winter series and continues to improve since the ground got better
Liberty Hall - not sure about the 1600 on the summer course
Double the fun - has a bit to find but has won off an 86
Firealley - yes its a handicap but hasnt improved in 3 runs
In terms of a win i would think Arctic but the quartet will be my play
For me I think Kommetdieding is no value at the odds - yes he may be as good as 'they' think he is - but he is trying 1600 for the first time (yes I know Elusive Fort may make him stay, but I have seen quite a few off-spring of Elusive Fort that sprints - and I haven't bothered to check the dam-line); he has to give weight to older horses (and 6 kgs to his fellow 3 yr old) - also one has to think that the jock has a low strike-rate for a reason; so he may still win, but I can't have him a those odds
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