Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

I’m going to be testing a new pick six system I have developed. I will be playing it on paper to track how well I would have performed should I have followed it. I will pretend bet R100 each pick six. The goal is to come out with a pretend profit after 30 plays. Worst case scenario, a pretend loss of R3000, best case, a positive return on investment. I think if I post it on a forum, I’ll be more disciplined about it. Please comment if you think I have any obvious omissions in my selections.

Pick 1 Kenilworth 15th August

Here we go!

Leg1 3 7

Leg2 1 2 3 6 9

Leg3 1 4 5 7 13 16

Leg4 1 3 7 10 11 13

Leg5 2 3 4 10

Leg6 1 2 4 5 6 9


Cost = R8 640.00 or 1.1574% if R100 Bet.

Today looks hard enough, and the rain makes it trickier.
If I played at all, I would load up the last three legs.
2,3,7 x
1,3 x
1,4,16 x
field x
2,3,4,8,9 x
1,2,4,5,6,9
=R7020

Lucky_Dude wrote: Pick 1 Kenilworth 15th August

Here we go!

Leg1 3 7

Leg2 1 2 3 6 9

Leg3 1 4 5 7 13 16

Leg4 1 3 7 10 11 13

Leg5 2 3 4 10

Leg6 1 2 4 5 6 9


Cost = R8 640.00 or 1.1574% if R100 Bet.

Lucky Dude, really...1.1%
Your system seems not worth the effort...

why is it not worth the effort Form Fundi?
I've seen worse scenarios from other 'TIPSTERS"...like 5 fields and 10 horses in the other leg,and taking 1% for R10 000..

point to be asked lucky dude..what system is this

its what we all do everyday

a system is something that's unique
whats unique here???

Good luck LD, I will be following with interest

patience is what is needed and discipline(something I don't posess)
if I win 50k today ...I will go tomorrow with 50k and punt...that's why I am a fool
I had a cousin who had patience a plenty...on the roulette wheel at a casino he could sit the whole day and have 2 or 3 bets and win his 1 k or whatever his limit was.
I used to laugh at him whilst I am 50 in front with 2 spins, he is biding his time and wasting it in my mind.

today he owns property in Dubai and I'm still trying to find out where I went wrong.

now that's a disciplined person and it showed in the sands of time

Questions answered…

Form Fundi - Lucky Dude, really...1.1%
Your system seems not worth the effort...

Yes, probably not, but I’ve got some spare time to kill in the next few days.




Sucker - point to be asked lucky dude..what system is this

its what we all do everyday

a system is something that's unique
whats unique here???


I’m using a basic mathematical system. I’m just taking it for a test run. I’m not sure if it is unique or not, who cares. No one is forced to open this thread and read it if they don't want to. It's just something to pass the time. Nothing serious.

Cost = R8 640.00 or 1.1574% if R100 Bet. You are inside the pool of R868,000 which I think is border-line fine. But If all the favorites win I estimate a payout of R2,154 for 100%. With that opinion you may have gone too heavy.

But the Fav didn't win the 1st leg so who knows.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hi Lucky
We are both out leg two.
It is useful to look at the implied probability of our two perms winning (using betting as a proxy for probabilities of each horse). This is a rough calculation, but gives the following result:
Your perm
leg 1 61%
leg 2 80%
leg 3 88%
leg 4 60%
leg 5 60%
leg 6 93%
total 14%
my perm
leg 1 89%
leg 2 60%
leg 3 69%
leg 4 100%
leg 5 80%
leg 6 93%
total 27%

Thus, my perm was twice as likely to win despite a slightly lower cost.
The spread of potential payouts is somewhat different between the two perms, depending on which legs throw up a result.

I find it useful to have an idea of the expected frequency of any particular perm winning.

A straight line with all favourites would win once in 730 attempts assuming average priced favourites.

Libra, on pedigree is related to Otter Trail who ended up in Dubai after running fourth in the July. Also Centenarian who was a top division horse is also related to Libra.

Lucky good try, but like the previous guy say it must be a system based on something... i believe if u want to win a pick6 and make a profit one sud find at least 1 banker bet, 2 then you lucky, 3 then u greedy,

I believe a banker is easy to find in plate races, or u look for a top juvenile or 3yr old who just won his/her maiden going into a handicap(from a top inform stable, the Bass, Snaith, Decock, Tarry love going that route).

i have noticed over the years a maiden winner from these mentions stables entered into a novice or graduation plate either win or go 2nd. this helps one narrow down the odds and most likely to find a banker or go short.

Then the next thing you do is look at the betting, if its odds on (no scratchings in the race) it will win for sure, then if your odds on fav. arrive you need to load or before and after that leg.for maximum profit always look for the upset. rule of thumb picks pays better when the odds on the favorite loose.not when the upset arrives.then obviously consider the inform jocks, trainers, and other factors.

other pointers is distances: a sprinter from 1000. will always/ most likely win a 1400m,1200 will most likely win 1600,1400 will win 1800,1600 will win 2000. so when I look for a runner to win it will be on these distance factors. only a top stable will most likely run their horse over the same distance the next run and win. (top stable do this a lot with great success)

a pick 6 is about structure, (where do u bank or go short or load) look at the whole card then ask where will the upset come).

look at double and treble bets to find a more accurate selection.

the draw plays a part, but if a bad formless horse can win from a bad draw what stops the top horse with a top jockey from winning from a poor draw. on the poly track, it's better to even have a poor draw (spies runners has enjoy this alot)

just my take. good luck.. oh and follow Peterd his summary is always spot on..