Greyville Wednesday 13/4/16

Hows it looking?

Mixed card Turf and poly

Race 3
1400 a bit sharp for Alzerra (unless the pace is on)

Beautiful Jet three from four?

Skyfire looks the right one

The weather wasn't looking all that flash earlier, I say this because the first 4 races are carded for the turf and who knows what a little rain can do - races could be switched to the poly and we all know what happens next.

Having said that, I fancy the chances of In Other Words in the 4th. The market has priced up Impala Lily as the favourite, price varies markedly between the different bookmakers, that aside, I do feel that In Other Words has run to much stronger in her last three starts and she is the one they all have to beat. It is a massive rise in class for Impala Lily, her last two efforts being in MR 76 handicaps, now tackling MR 91 company. Whilst Impala Lily does have a relatively light mass to shoulder, the 4.0kg apprentice allowance negates that in a big way.

The other horse I fancy on the day is Tripandie in the 6th. Admittedly at the weight turn-around Buster Brown is weighted to finish ahead of Tripandie, but for me, one horse is starting to show promise, whilst the other keeps finding something to beat it (sorry Craig, just how it is). I could end up with egg on my face, but I'm calling it as I see it. Bottom line, Tripandie may be ahead of the handicapper, we will know soon enough.

I am hearing In Other Words very, very strong.

I hope you wrong Bayern. When he beat BB we ended up in front from the jump which we certainly did not want to be especially over a distance which we were worried might be a bit short. Anyway with the the 6kgs for 1.25 lengths in our favour, it will be hard for him to stay in front of us unless as you say he has plenty in hand. BB is jumping out of his skin at the moment and Alec says that it is the best he has ever felt him. We will know in 8 and 1/2 hours if that is good enough.

Craig Eudey wrote: I hope you wrong Bayern. When he beat BB we ended up in front from the jump which we certainly did not want to be especially over a distance which we were worried might be a bit short. Anyway with the the 6kgs for 1.25 lengths in our favour, it will be hard for him to stay in front of us unless as you say he has plenty in hand. BB is jumping out of his skin at the moment and Alec says that it is the best he has ever felt him. We will know in 8 and 1/2 hours if that is good enough.

Craig, thanks for your transparent response, much appreciated (on behalf of all).

All the best.

Race 3 ALZERRA

Race 4 IMPALA LILY

Race 6 BUSTER BROWN

Race 8 NOODLE

My take on the 6th - In my very honest opinion, even with the 6 kg swing for 1.25 lengths, Tripandie looks exceptionally difficult to oppose, It's fair to say that Tripandie needed that first outing after a lengthy layoff and despite this he won easier than than the 1.25 lengths. Tripandie's 3rd run after a rest today so will probably be at his peak. Most impressive was he's 2nd run after a rest when thumping Secret Warning by 4.75 lengths carrying 61 kg. Talking strictly from the Secret Warning form line who IMO is no slouch, Buster Brown just failed over the 1400m when drawn wide and receiving 1.50 Kgs from Secret Warning, previously he was beaten 2.50 lengths by the same runner when receiving 3.00 kgs over the same distance. Tripandie on the other hand and let's remember it was only his 2nd run back from a rest beat Secret Warning by almost 5 lengths when conceding 2 kgs to the runner up. Based purely on the above, Tripandie should absolutely annihilate this bunch even with the 62.50 kgs.

Bob Brogan wrote: Race 3 ALZERRA

Race 4 IMPALA LILY

Race 6 BUSTER BROWN

Race 8 NOODLE

Noodle has been scratched.

Thanks

Grrrrr

Race 1 - Watch

Race 2 - Watch, first two favorites double currently 17/10, good luck for those who struck a bet

Race 3 - Beautiful Jet is as honest as the day is long, is a winner over course and distance, draw is a concern. Alzerra seems to enjoy the 1400m so a worthy inclusion. Sky Fire was impressive on debut, she takes on a few hard knockers and it's difficult to see her winning, the draw negates Wind Singer once again so I can't have her either, Eleven will be my roughie and she will form part of my selections.

Race 4 - Many with chances here but you have to fancy the chances of In Other Words strongly, she gets the weight off her back and has taken on significantly stronger, School Run another I would include.

Race 5 - Field

Race 6 - Tripandie

Race 7 - Very short priced favorite, looks hard to oppose and could make every stride a winning one, it's banker or field for those taking exotics, at those odds not even worth taking a multiple.

Race 8 - IMO, Delpech is on the right one, another possible banker, that said if you look past the top two in the betting or if either or both fluff their chances then a result could be on the cards.

All in all, a very descent card. Good luck to all!

Best bet - Call me winter...Value bet - Buster brown