Turffontein Saturday 16/4/16

Looks a fair card imo, so let's give it a bash

R1: Not too much to get excited about, Jiffy the obvious one, but with juveniles giving weight away is never easy - interesting runner here is Arch of Canterbury - despite being by Rakeen, his dam has produced full siblings that has sprinted, getting 8 kg's from Jiffy is surely going to be a factor - no real early betting support, but stable in hot form, so I thought 11/2 could be a nice price for an each-way stab

R2: I think weight is going to be a factor again, Missibaba full sister to Royal Pleasure who won her first 3 races in a row - receiving 7 kg's from the hot pot favorite and I'm happy I got some of the 13/2 - see it has now shortened on WSB to 9/2

R3: Don't think any of these are going to Hollywood - Navarho possibly the most scope for improvement, Elevenses needs to get his act together at the start, Rock On probably the safest for the PA

R4: Tricky start to the P6, obvious contenders are Rainy Day Blues and Master Switch - my preference of the 2 is for RDB, who has finished in the first 2 in 7 of his 9 starts since last June and has only been given 4 points for a cosy last win; MS seems to prefer the inside track, but Marcus is sure to try and steal the race off a slowish pace, so can't be ignored; Jubilee Line has some way to go to justify his 3 bar price tag, but may start improving; stable companion Smart Mart made up ground on RDB last time and is better off a the weights, but for me RDB won with something in hand and will beat SM again; Fah Fee seems held by MS and Fort Meyers not guaranteed to see out the trip, which makes Greek Legend the danger imo - only 1.25 lengths behind Ertijaal at level weights so could provide a minor upset if ready after a break

R5: Carry on Alice looks real hard to beat, but this could be a case of that dreaded 'prep run' for the Computaform Sprint in 2 weeks - for me she would really need to be very rusty to get beat here, so I think it's a case of banker her or go field, as none of the others jumps out as an obvious danger imo

R6: Pinnacle Plate, where Belong To Me, courtesy of the 4kg allowance, stands out at the weights - however he has not won over 1000 yet and could find it tough to make up the ground even with the possible help of blinkers; the others look closely matched - interesting runner here imo is Captain Ellio, a bleeder who returns after a very long break; also stable mate Varbration often shows good early pace and could hold on to place at least if the apprentice can keep him on a straight course - in short I think this is the toughest race o the card.

R7: Have discussed this in detail, I think it lies between Inara and Trophy Wife, only dangers Tiger's Touch (tries further) and perhaps Olma

R8: Could be time to go big or go home.....I think Marmalady is overdue to win and has slightly stronger form than the rest; if she fails any of the others, bar maybe Eva Tibbs can win

R9: Another interesting contest; Rabada seems to be on the drift and could be looking for further, Nephrite is finding lots of betting support, but for me the stable has been a bit quiet recently; Prospect Strike should improve lots on his last run (and will need to) but has been deserted by the stable jock; I took some 20/1 of Machismo - seemingly out at the weights, but has run well at level weights with useful performers Brazuca and New Predator, so could be the surprise package here

R10: First timer Fair Verona is finding some betting support, will be interesting to see if Delpech stays to the end to take the ride; if this is 'funny money', I think one could do worse than to side with young Hewittson again; Lindelize comes off a fair last run, has pole position and again the 4kg's allowance will be a big factor imo.

Enjoy

Rainy Day Blues in the 4th.

bayern wrote: Rainy Day Blues in the 4th.

Don't think so!

We in the gambling game Bayern so I can end up being wrong but I can't have him

Disappointed before but this is Master Switch's peak run and I can't see other Joostes runners ahead

I like Trophy Wife over Inara and Intergalactic hasnt been out the money many times

Struggling to justify how Jubilee Line is a 3yrc MR 95 after 6runs-1win-1place, and Rainy Day Blues is a 4yrg with a MR 85 after 9runs-4wins-3places.... Either RDB is still ahead of handicapper or JL got shafted properly (I think the latter) but I definately know where my tom is going.......

My Quad for the day -

Jiffy x Rainy day Blues x Carry on Alice x Prospect Strike

55/1....

Karma wrote: Struggling to justify how Jubilee Line is a 3yrc MR 95 after 6runs-1win-1place, and Rainy Day Blues is a 4yrg with a MR 85 after 9runs-4wins-3places.... Either RDB is still ahead of handicapper or JL got shafted properly (I think the latter) but I definately know where my tom is going.......

Not a merit rating expert at all but Jubilee Line finished around 3.5 lengths behind Abashiri in the Dingaans. Considering Abashiri is now a 117, you can see how JL is highly rated. Furthermore, Noah from Goa ran 3rd in the QP behind the 120 rated Legal Eagle and 117 rated Legislate. Think JL is worth that rating.

I know races are not run on paper but race 9 Nephrite if not needing run badly has Rabada stone cold at the weights @ 7/2 worth including in a few doubles

Can anyone clarify please.

I've looked in last night's Greyville blogs but found nothing.

Last night on the Tellytrack changes I saw Hewitson was claiming only 1.5kg in race 5 Greyville. I've looked in Race results but that says 4kg including his subsequent races. Formgrids also says 4kg.

My Q is Hewitson still claiming 4kg at the Big T today?

Race 1 JIFFY

Race 3 VARS PRIDE

Race 4 RAINY DAY BLUES

Race 6 DOING IT FOR DAN

Race 7 INARA

Race 8 ZAFIRA

Jiffy is scratched