"HOT TICKET"

Frodo Wrote:

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> For me I agree Hot Ticket has a lot to do with top
> weight and much too short in the betting; I think
> both Gothic and especially Storm Warning look the
> value at current odds

I fancy Gothic - should beat Hot Ticket

keniza999 Wrote:

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> bayern Wrote:
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>

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> IF the merit rating system works,
>
>
>
>
>
> watch the sky rise

Ken, most times the merit rating system works. In this particular race, had the others horses received their correct weight allowances according to the MR system, then I would agree it would be a very open contest. If you look at the respective runners and their merit ratings in relation to Hot Ticket's merit rating, then you will see how badly out at the weights most are. Sky Rise should be receiving 14.0kgs from Hot Ticket, so in theory SR should be carrying 46.0kgs, so you must agree it is 6.0kgs out at the weights. Sir, do the exercise and then you will see how badly out at the weights many of them are with Hot Ticket. These long distance races are normally "compressed" handicaps and the weights should favour the top weighted horses, in this instance, it does.

you okes should double your July bet with Wonder of Qatar running at Chepstow

Jeppe's reef is 2KG's better off with HT for a 2,25L beating and 3KG's better off with Wild One for a 3L beatingso there should not be much between them 'cept JR has a bad draw and they Jump from the winning post so little or no time to get a position, I really like a horse in this race,Canterbury Tale who ran 3rd to JR in this race last year, MDK dont put horses that are just back from injury in these races unless they are 100% sound and a sound and fit CT will chew this field up....imo 10/1 is remarkable odds as is 11/10 the 1st 4...

Just like he did with Whistle Stop Titch....:S:D

Titch Wrote:

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> Jeppe's reef is 2KG's better off with HT for a
> 2,25L beating and 3KG's better off with Wild One
> for a 3L beatingso there should not be much
> between them 'cept JR has a bad draw and they Jump
> from the winning post so little or no time to get
> a position, I really like a horse in this
> race,Canterbury Tale who ran 3rd to JR in this
> race last year, MDK dont put horses that are just
> back from injury in these races unless they are
> 100% sound and a sound and fit CT will chew this
> field up....imo 10/1 is remarkable odds as is
> 11/10 the 1st 4...

Titch, if you dissect the race you speak of 22/02/2014, Hot Ticket was actually 1.0kg out at the weights with Jeppe's Reef. At that time HT was a MR 103 (carrying 59.0kgs) and JP a MR 99 (carrying 58.0kgs). Strictly on handicapping, HT should have conceded 2.0kgs to JP, however received the 1.0kg for the WFA allowance.

Saturday's race, JP is actually 2.0kgs worse off at the MR plus 1.0kg because HT is not receiving the WFA allowance. So if you look at the above race in conjunction with Saturday's race, JP is actually (correction) 3.0kgs worse off on that run 22/02. It is not as clear as it is made out to be in the form guides

Noordhoek Ice Wrote:

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> X(X(X(...Now how am I going to get you hooked on
> the MACHINE??!! (tu)-D


Canterbury Tale with 55.5 kg and very lightly raced . He returns after a year to this race with just 3 runs.(tu) (tu) (tu) with superman aboard and drawn 1 . That a banker for the pick6 .(tu) (tu) (tu) . He wil turn the table agains Hot ticket.. With 55.5kg . Ring up the register For De Kock / Jooste / Marcus.(tu) X(X(X(

Headlands Raiders Suleman Wrote:

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> Noordhoek Ice Wrote:
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>

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> > X(X(X(...Now how am I going to get you hooked
> on
> > the MACHINE??!! (tu)-D
>
>
> Canterbury Tale with 55.5 kg and very lightly
> raced . He returns after a year to this race with
> just 3 runs.(tu) (tu) (tu) with superman aboard
> and drawn 1 . That a banker for the pick6 .(tu)
> (tu) (tu) . He wil turn the table agains Hot
> ticket.. With 55.5kg . Ring up the register For De
> Kock / Jooste / Marcus.(tu) X(X(X(


Well Spotted.

bayern Wrote:

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> keniza999 Wrote:
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>

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> > bayern Wrote:
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> >

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> > IF the merit rating system works,
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > watch the sky rise
>
> Ken, most times the merit rating system works. In
> this particular race, had the others horses
> received their correct weight allowances according
> to the MR system, then I would agree it would be a
> very open contest. If you look at the respective
> runners and their merit ratings in relation to Hot
> Ticket's merit rating, then you will see how badly
> out at the weights most are. Sky Rise should be
> receiving 14.0kgs from Hot Ticket, so in theory SR
> should be carrying 46.0kgs, so you must agree it
> is 6.0kgs out at the weights. Sir, do the exercise
> and then you will see how badly out at the weights
> many of them are with Hot Ticket. These long
> distance races are normally "compressed" handicaps
> and the weights should favour the top weighted
> horses, in this instance, it does.


I think it is called a 'long' handicap where they use 3 points = 1 kg, and not 2 points = 1 kg as per normal; in theory the weights should not really favor anyone, bar those 'out at the weights' - in this case Raees and Royal Mack and Sky Rise to a lessor extent

I would not totally discount Seal

PeeKay Wrote:

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> I would not totally discount Seal


CBT beat seal over 3200m With nothing on CBT BACK. With top weight Seal turned the table, now once again CBT WITH PUMP Hot Ticket and Seal...

Hot Ticket has been so impressive over the last few months and he has clearly matured. It great to back against a stand-out bet and be proven right but I believe that he has this race at his mercy.
He could however lose it if he gets caught out of his ground with too much to make up in the last 400m so that's my "red flag' but if he is close enough when they enter the straight, he'll doddle this one...

Banker for me in the Pick 6 BUT as usual I'll play a cover perm.