TIPSTER results - What I paid for..

Avanza, studying does take time and as we all study the same form the skill as far as I am concerned is in the interpretation. You sound like a bright boy and I am sure you have heard of Elliot Waves in stock market technical analysis. Now studying form is the same as that. No two elliot wavers have exactly the same scenrioas (except the Fibonacci traces and retraces) and ALL of them have alternative scenario's (eg: Major Wave C or a minor c withing a Major C etc. etc.). Now the same with tipsters. I do daily previews of race meetings and there is not enough time or space on the page to paint scenarios and the reasons why I like a certain horse and everytime it is before the race meeting starts so you have to have a preconceived idea of what the going is going to be like, headwind / tailwind cannot be factored in, jockey changes, late declaration of blinkers, where the false rail is located for that day... these are all things that can screw you around... by race four on the day I will have more chance of finding the likely winner of the 5th than I had the night before when I was doing my preview. Nuff said !!

Betting on horses is a 'mind game' but often not the 'mind game' that you thought it is!

Firstly - it is about discipline. Secondly - it is about discipline. And thirdly - it is about discipline. The moment you lose a grip on your discipline you start getting involved in little sideshows, tips and fancies which, even though you might only be speculating R10, quickly snowball into large sums of money unnecessarily squandered.

Secondly - the whole system is set up to beat you. Not to accomodate you but to beat you. So you need a whole succession of issues to seamlessly go your way to make money or avoid major losses.

Thirdly - as we are social creatures the roots of our financial destruction are often sown in our propensity to talk to each other in the process of wagering. Bad mistake. You need to learn to live and die by your own opinion based on your own observations and studies. So punting is best done in relative isolation with outside contact being restricted to obtaining cold, hard facts only and NOT opinions.

Most punters fiddle here and fiddle there. After an extended period they suddenly get the needle and start examining their own performance a little more critically and less emotionally. In this thread AVANZA has commendably researched an option and found it to be wanting. Good start. No need to abuse the tipster. Just accept that this method offers no meaningful assistance or value.

In order to punt successfully I have found that the setting of financial goals ( as ridiculous as that may sound ) is one of the best methods to stay solvent and even make profits. Whenever I set myself an objective of winning a pre determined sum of money I almost always won it with a minimum of fuss. When I punted just because I was in the mood I inevitably ran up losses and then had to battle my way out of it.

My most successful days were when I had access to Betfair and used to set myself a daily target. I played off a bank of one thousand pounds and set myself an objective of winning three hundred pounds per day as I found that a 30% return on the bank was often quite easy to achieve in one day and often after only a small number of plays.

Sometimes I cleared the necessary in just one punt dependent upon my fancy, its price and how much I had speculated. Thereafter I used to shut up shop immediately and simply follow the meeting/s for the remainder of the afternoon. Sometimes I played 'dry' ( without actually placing the bet ) and always noted that there was almost a rythmn to the betting fortunes during the afternoon. Simply stated - had I continued I would normally have given back the winnings plus close to the same percentage again. So there appears to be a natural ebb and flow in fortunes.

At first glance three hundred pounds might not have sounded very much ( as numbers, rather like casino chips, quickly become meaningless ) but when you consider that I was sometimes repatriating to SA up to two thousand pounds a week it was very good business; the value of which only really became apparent when it reflected in my bank account the following week! Sadly most of this money went straight down the throats of slow moving local mules that I owned so I never really showed a nett gain out of the exercise.

When I stopped using Betfair because of exchange control concerns I was never able to replicate my success locally with the options available here. There were a number of reasons for this :

I find it much easier to punt on UK racing and their jumps racing in particular. Without the laying option ( which I did not use as often as I should have ) it is very difficult to win on the horses in the long term. So I eventually turned up horses altogether and focused on sport.

In summary - if you were to set yourself an annual target you might only need half a dozen punts a year to reach it. And you probably would. But the problem is that the act of punting and the 'thrill of the chase' is what you end up pursuing and that's where it is an addiction and a 'bank account killer'. But if you operate in isolation and with discipline you can probably do it and you will KNOW when those big opportunities present themselves. Just trust your instincts and not your mate's street corner tip.

Hi guys. My first post here. As gregbucks says, luck is an important element in this game. Read this interesting article a while ago where the author rates luck as the most important factor in horseracing.

Check it out at:

www.slipperytoad.co.uk/betting-strategy/...tor-in-horse-racing/

I did pay once and won nothing

If they were so good why would they give out their information and reduce payouts

They could just play their own tips and win bi g

Welcome Bob and thanks for posting that article....(tu)

Avanza follow FRODO: his analytical skill, is the ability to visualize, articulate, and solve both complex and uncomplicated problems and concepts and make decisions that are sensical based on available information. Such skills include demonstration of the ability to apply logical thinking to gathering and analyzing the information, and formulating plans to come out in front. lol
Read through his daily summary, which could have taken him awhile longer than all the tipsters... take a yankee with his choices... its free (for now) from him. Frodo take no offence your choice ain't 1/2 bad:):)oo

Garrick Wrote:

---

> Betting on horses is a 'mind game' but often not
> the 'mind game' that you thought it is!
>
> Firstly - it is about discipline. Secondly - it is
> about discipline. And thirdly - it is about
> discipline. The moment you lose a grip on your
> discipline you start getting involved in little
> sideshows, tips and fancies which, even though you
> might only be speculating R10, quickly snowball
> into large sums of money unnecessarily
> squandered.
>
> Secondly - the whole system is set up to beat you.
> Not to accomodate you but to beat you. So you need
> a whole succession of issues to seamlessly go your
> way to make money or avoid major losses.
>
> Thirdly - as we are social creatures the roots of
> our financial destruction are often sown in our
> propensity to talk to each other in the process of
> wagering. Bad mistake. You need to learn to live
> and die by your own opinion based on your own
> observations and studies. So punting is best done
> in relative isolation with outside contact being
> restricted to obtaining cold, hard facts only and
> NOT opinions.
>
> Most punters fiddle here and fiddle there. After
> an extended period they suddenly get the needle
> and start examining their own performance a little
> more critically and less emotionally. In this
> thread AVANZA has commendably researched an option
> and found it to be wanting. Good start. No need to
> abuse the tipster. Just accept that this method
> offers no meaningful assistance or value.
>
> In order to punt successfully I have found that
> the setting of financial goals ( as ridiculous as
> that may sound ) is one of the best methods to
> stay solvent and even make profits. Whenever I set
> myself an objective of winning a pre determined
> sum of money I almost always won it with a minimum
> of fuss. When I punted just because I was in the
> mood I inevitably ran up losses and then had to
> battle my way out of it.
>
> My most successful days were when I had access to
> Betfair and used to set myself a daily target. I
> played off a bank of one thousand pounds and set
> myself an objective of winning three hundred
> pounds per day as I found that a 30% return on the
> bank was often quite easy to achieve in one day
> and often after only a small number of plays.
>
> Sometimes I cleared the necessary in just one punt
> dependent upon my fancy, its price and how much I
> had speculated. Thereafter I used to shut up shop
> immediately and simply follow the meeting/s for
> the remainder of the afternoon. Sometimes I played
> 'dry' ( without actually placing the bet ) and
> always noted that there was almost a rythmn to the
> betting fortunes during the afternoon. Simply
> stated - had I continued I would normally have
> given back the winnings plus close to the same
> percentage again. So there appears to be a natural
> ebb and flow in fortunes.
>
> At first glance three hundred pounds might not
> have sounded very much ( as numbers, rather like
> casino chips, quickly become meaningless ) but
> when you consider that I was sometimes
> repatriating to SA up to two thousand pounds a
> week it was very good business; the value of which
> only really became apparent when it reflected in
> my bank account the following week! Sadly most of
> this money went straight down the throats of slow
> moving local mules that I owned so I never really
> showed a nett gain out of the exercise.
>
> When I stopped using Betfair because of exchange
> control concerns I was never able to replicate my
> success locally with the options available here.
> There were a number of reasons for this :
>
> I find it much easier to punt on UK racing and
> their jumps racing in particular. Without the
> laying option ( which I did not use as often as I
> should have ) it is very difficult to win on the
> horses in the long term. So I eventually turned up
> horses altogether and focused on sport.
>
> In summary - if you were to set yourself an annual
> target you might only need half a dozen punts a
> year to reach it. And you probably would. But the
> problem is that the act of punting and the 'thrill
> of the chase' is what you end up pursuing and
> that's where it is an addiction and a 'bank
> account killer'. But if you operate in isolation
> and with discipline you can probably do it and you
> will KNOW when those big opportunities present
> themselves. Just trust your instincts and not your
> mate's street corner tip.

Garrick thank you for this most informative piece of advice it is one of the best pieces of advice i Have received, I am one of those guys who can find the winners but then land up giving a lot back as I try to chase more, as you say it is in the discipline which i lack and I am sure a lot of my fellow punters, as we keep on chasing the "good things".

I was wondering if someone kept track of all the short fav (big opportunities?) that got beat in the last few weeks

I am humbled by the wealth of informative responses. Without thanking everyone individually - I do thank you very much and much appreciated.
I suppose I cranked a nerve that everyone in this industry has encountered at some or other point. So good discussion point.
I am glad that we have a clan of 'thinking' punters and not a bunch of wayward punting addicts that cant drive a straight line past a tote, and I think we all addicts deep down in one way or the other.

I also want to emphasize that I did not mean to insult any owners, trainers or jocks out there, but hell boys.. you know exactly where I'm at..... when you prancing round the parade ring knowing what might not be evident in the formbook, I am studying the formbook.
I have toyed with the idea of getting involved proper in the industry i.e. owner , as I was under the impression that the outsiders looking in are handicapped when it comes to punting.
Over my years of punting I have has some seriously accurate forms of information, and some not so.

Years ago I put a LUMP of money on this EXTREMELY short priced favourite in America. The godamn pony did not just run LAST - it ran a diiiiiiiiistant last. I went and hit my head against the wall and promised myself not to be an eejit and think this game is anything but crooked. I stopped punting.
And here I am...

Buying a Computerform, a Winningform or any other at R20.00 a throw instead of using a newspaper or
"free tabsheet" is also a kind of paying for tips.

Only difference is that a different "business model" was chosen.
Thoughts ?

Register and download sportingpost for free:)

F1XER Wrote:

---

> Avanza follow FRODO: his analytical skill, is the
> ability to visualize, articulate, and solve both
> complex and uncomplicated problems and concepts
> and make decisions that are sensical based on
> available information. Such skills include
> demonstration of the ability to apply logical
> thinking to gathering and analyzing the
> information, and formulating plans to come out in
> front. lol
> Read through his daily summary, which could have
> taken him awhile longer than all the tipsters...
> take a yankee with his choices... its free (for
> now) from him. Frodo take no offence your choice
> ain't 1/2 bad:):)oo


Well thank you sir - the cheque is in the post - not so sure about those big words - you really don't need me - just a bit ot of form study and then make up your mind - some times things go your way, other times not - that's racing ()

Frodo Wrote:

> Well thank you sir - the cheque is in the post -
> not so sure about those big words - you really
> don't need me - just a bit ot of form study and
> then make up your mind - some times things go your
> way, other times not - that's racing ()

Frodo - went out in ernest looking for your tips and alas ...none
So basically Frodo we do some form study - some days it works and some days not. The days it does not are when the boys in the know supercede the formbook or the graft bends the formbook. But hey - cant win them all ?