Final Field Hollywoodbets Durban July

Kaotik PA Punter wrote:

With all of See it Again, Royal Victory and Galdatorian drawing very wide. For sure there race is cooked.

Immediate Edge, Gauteng form is probably lower than it's ever been. Not sure he is really a 120 in waiting, yes he is a 108, but more likely a 112. Can't see how it runs close when it is so far out at the weights, getting 4kgs when it should be getting at least 7.

Two horses race...can Oriental Charm run pillar to post with 60kgs over 2200m. I can't see it. Yes he haz draw 1, but I think Snaith wouldn't want 8/18 on the inside rail as he will make his run and loop the field, infact i think it's ideal draw for a replay of the Daily News is a draw between 8 to 12.

Think 8/18 will start around 14/10 or shorter

Now it's really a race in 2.fully agree,the only lurker in the pack is the Real Prince,watch his win in the Jet Master ,if he is relaxed and sees out the trip will out Sprint them in the finish .
 

Muhtiman wrote:

......the draw has put Immediate Edge right in the the race as he will be stalking 8on18 all over the course....MDK is no fool as he has "hidden" this horse from the handicapper and done just enough to get in with a 4kg swing against the very good sort and this fav will have a hard time to be dropped out from that mid field draw in order to make a run like he did in in the Daily News....gonna be a gr8 race.....

Muhti, don't you think he should be getting more than 4.0kgs off the current rating. Are you saying he has been hidden so well he is a mr 121? Can we agree, the only reason I,,ediate Edge made the final field is because he won the Jubilee. Historically the winners of the Jubilee have done well in the July, but certainly not when under sufferance.

Since merit rating were introduced, has any horse under sufferance won the July - i can't think of one but i could be wrong.

Muhtiman wrote:

......for me the magic numbers are not the MR.....draw 10 or 11.....and around  54kg is the sweet spot....smiley 

Don't think Mr H will mind me mentioning him, but he alluded to something similar, a horse with a low(ish) weight 53.0, 54.0 kgs, horses carrying this sort of weight have won in recent years, not in dispute, but where their ratings dictated that. Immediate Edge is way out at the weights, only carries 53.0 because that's the minimum permissible, should be carrying 46.5ks on ratings.

It is the worst weighted horse in the race. Someone commented they'd be surprised if 8 on 18 ran in the first half of the field, i'd be surprised if this horse finished in the top 6.