1st Log Hollywoodbets Durban July

Dazza wrote:

We are all assuming 8 on 18 runs. What if he doesn't?
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He will be there in the Final Field. 
Carrying Multiple Multiples, Doubles and Trebles for sure. 
I see the horse doing a Politician as a 3 year old. 
 Don't know of any 3 year old that carried 57 kg to victory yet in the July. 
See it Again went close with 56,5 kgs, I think. 

 

stats say under 54kg....last five winners...Legislate won 56kg 3yr old...is 8 on 18 better than him?...I think he is....but again horses carrying 53kg are more likely to win this race....

For the main race 8 on 18 won't lose ..best to get on to early price ...there was a huge fight at the course between tarry and Fourie..tarry wanting Fourie to ride his horse...Fourie refuses says his staying on 8on18...tarry trying to get Lyle hewitson to come down from Hong Kong.. I think 8on18 should win this by 3lths

zef wrote:

For the main race 8 on 18 won't lose ..best to get on to early price ...there was a huge fight at the course between tarry and Fourie..tarry wanting Fourie to ride his horse...Fourie refuses says his staying on 8on18...tarry trying to get Lyle hewitson to come down from Hong Kong.. I think 8on18 should win this by 3lths

So given the above as gospel .... odds are 8 to 18 will take part - the problem with that bet imo he is much too short in the betting (22/10 at WSB this morning) - and publicly there has been no confirmation on whether he would be running; Legend of Arthur imo will not be concerned with the finish in the July; firstly running 19 lengths off on Sunday (I get he was not expected to win - but 19 lengths off  !!! ); secondly what did he beat in the Derby (beat Solar Sail rated 86 by less than 1/2 a length) and anyway was beaten by more than 4 lengths at level weights by Confederate in the Classic) - and yet he is rated 117 which I find surprising - so IF 8 on 18 runs in the July, he would very much be Fourie's choice

I still maintain that the 100/1 I took about On My Honour is the value (even quoted at 45/1 this morning is value) - he finished 3.65 lengths behind 8 on 18 (admittedly rusty - but so OMH could be judged to 'need the run') and then on Saturday finished less than 1/2 a length behind Madison Valley receiving only 0.5 kgs - in the July given current ratings (theoretically) MV rated 115 would carry 54 kgs (and at 40/1 imo looks value as well), OMH 53 kgs and 8 on 18 (given that he runs) 57 kgs ....

I took some of the 150/1 on Pomodoro's jet a while ago. By process of elimination, I hope he can still sneak into the final field. 

Can't wait for the July. Really see 8/18 swooping them from the outside. Shooting 5 lengths clear in seconds, then on to the inside rail and geared down to win by 2-3 easy, and hard held at the line. At the 600m this race is over.

Just look at the last few weeks, All older horses haven't impressed. Oriental Charm will drift in betting, as he couldn't sustain his run over 1600m, and to be honest it looked as if it was more that race was run as his mission and not a come on run for July, or maybe jockey miss judged it. He will have to carry 59 or 60kgs, he could run start to finish with 53 kgs last year, no chance this year. Also I won't be surprised if he skips the July and runs in Champions Cup over 1800m. If the horse draws wider than 11, then it will be not even make the front on the break and finish midfield.

Doubles, trebles, all to comes. Once 8/18 is confirmed to run, the price will be below 2-1, and the confidence will be growing.

The horse is a beast over the distance, with almost no work almost won the Guinness over 1600m, smashed them 80% ready in the Daily News. In 4 strides moved last to first, the jockey stopped riding this horse with 300m to go. It could of never had an easier prep into the July.

Look around barring 8/18 it's wide open. This horse will never run again in SA with less than 60kgs on its back, every race after this it's 60kgs and more for the rest of its career. With this in mind, it's a last chance pass for the connections on a sub 60kgs weight.

The stallion pedigree won't change after this race win or loose. Its already set in stone. If he has an easy July, he may still win Champions Cup as well and have 5 group 1s, but Dave the King is a real monster that will be rough and tough to beat in that race over the shorter 1800m trip.

Press wrote:

I took some of the 150/1 on Pomodoro's jet a while ago. By process of elimination, I hope he can still sneak into the final field. 

Good bet - imo rated too high on official ratings, but if 'they' are correct and he stays ..... one advantage is that Zackey has already committed to ride him, so he might sneak in ....  

Horse is now 18/10, opened 6-7 to 1 when betting came out in May? And this is without horse confirmed as yet. Money has not stopped pouring in.

It will be hard to back at 15_10 soon.

I think the general consensus is that 8 on 18 will carry 57.0kgs. My question to those who understand the race conditions is, "does the wfa allowance for the 3 year olds still have to be deducted from 57.0kgs, or has it already been deducted"?

Using Charl's table, first scenario, if the wfa allowance has already been deducted from the 3 year olds to arrive at the weight that 8 on 18 will carry (57.0kgs), then he is already better off with all the remaining nominees. Using horses rated 127, 8 on 18 (129) in theory should be conceding 1.0kg to these horses, but is in fact receiving 3.0kgs from them giving him a 8 pound advantage. 

Here's the scary bit, if the wfa allowance is yet to be deducted from the 3 year olds, the final field can all start running the Saturday before the race and 8 on 18 should still win.

Hi the max weight it will carry is 57kgs, it's already deducted, as on its rating of 129 the it in theory would of needed to carry 58 or 59 kgs. It is not normal that a 3yr old is so dominate and powerful compared to the rest of 3yr olds, so they are very far out of weights only conceding 3 to 4 kgs to 8/18

bayern wrote:

I think the general consensus is that 8 on 18 will carry 57.0kgs. My question to those who understand the race conditions is, "does the wfa allowance for the 3 year olds still have to be deducted from 57.0kgs, or has it already been deducted"?

Using Charl's table, first scenario, if the wfa allowance has already been deducted from the 3 year olds to arrive at the weight that 8 on 18 will carry (57.0kgs), then he is already better off with all the remaining nominees. Using horses rated 127, 8 on 18 (129) in theory should be conceding 1.0kg to these horses, but is in fact receiving 3.0kgs from them giving him a 8 pound advantage. 

Here's the scary bit, if the wfa allowance is yet to be deducted from the 3 year olds, the final field can all start running the Saturday before the race and 8 on 18 should still win.

The max weight a 3-yr old is 57 kgs - on his rating of 129 - 4 (WFA) then he is a Nett 125; as Oriental Charm, Gladatorian and See It Again are 127 they would carry 60 kgs - so 8 on 18 should in theory carry 59 kgs - meaning that he is theoretically 2 kgs 'better' in on 'official' ratings because the max weight for 3-yr-olds is set at 57 kgs; also the scenario where weights would increase should the 'top weight' be scratched is very unlikely - as 3 horses (Oriental Charm, Gladatorian and See It Again) are rated 127 and would carry 60 kgs, so very unlikely that all 3 are taken out

Also Dave the King is pencilled in for the Champions Cup, conditions are WFA, so 8 on 18 would carry 58.5 kgs in that race - so the question the connections have to debate (unless he runs in both the July and the Champions Cup) is whether 8 on 18 would beat Dave the King at WFA - I think better to run in the July and that is why his odds are shortenening ...

I see Snaith has thrown another spanner in the works - according to SAhorseracing, Underworld is also entered in the July ....