My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

MY SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

Hello Guys....

Since we have SECTIONAL TIMING (ST) now I thought it well to analyse a few races of JULY DAY as we head into GOLD CUP DAY. I am no expert when it comes to ST, but through the last 6 - 8 years I've learned enough from HK and KRANJI RACING to pick up a thing...or two. So consider me a NOVICE still trying to improve.

I am a BIG BELIEVER in ST and TRIP HANDICAPPING (TH) so will do my best to help out on here where this is considered. Starting with JULY DAY is perfect as we have the big meeting next weekend.

I will keep it as simple as possible and welcome questions for those wishing to further there knowledge on the subject (if I can answer them is another matter🤣🤣🤣🤣?!)

I will try and make MSA a regular thing as I'm pretty damn sure it will provide some valuable insights into races for those who don't have the time to do what is needed. Simon Rowlands wrote several articles on this subject and it can be found on TIMEFORM for a better understanding on the subject.

Anyways.... The 1st 4 races I want to look at are the races won by....

BETULA/ MAIN DEFENDER/ MISS GERIATRIX and SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT on JULY DAY.....

WINNER: DIST 1st 400m 1st 600m TIME

BETULA: 1300M 25.03 36.80 79.59

MAIN DEF: 1300M 25.41 37.41 78.82

MISS GERIA: 1400M 26.04 38.15 85.57

SANDHAM S: 1400M 25.09 37.40 86.14

What does the RACE % say about the above??????

FINISHING SPEEDS = The average RACE SPEED of a horse expressed through % by the use of an scientific formula.

Before I go into that....it's obvious by judging from the 1st 400 and 1st 600 times that the BETULA race was run at an exceptional speed....The fastest of the 4 races with the 1st 600m being run 0.60sec(3.8 lengths) faster than the 2nd fastest which was the SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT RACE. The MISS G race was by far the slowest run race of them all....although her time was 0.57 seconds faster than that of SANDRHAM SUMMIT....that in itself can be very VERY MISLEADING for those who 'follow and watch bare times'

FINISHING SPEEDS of the races....

Winner: R400m R200m

BETULA: 100.82% 98.19%

MAIN DEF: 104.85% 103.99%

MISS GERIA: 107.56% 106.11%

SANDRHAM S: 103.01% 98.52%

The Finishing speeds of the races of BETULA and SANDRHAM X were the slowest becoz of the hot early pace the runners went.....evident by the drastic slowing down the LAST 200M. The High % of MISS G is due to the fact that they crawled early on and sprinted home (which proved to me that MISS G won't get further than 7f?....or much further anyways,more on that later)

we shall start with the BETULA race......

HORSE L400T L200T L400% L200%

BETULA: 23.94 12.28 102.29% 99.71%

ORIENTAL B: 24.04 12.48 101.80% 98.12%

SECRET I: 23.62 12.19 103.79% 100.56%

MOVING I: 24.36 12.60 101.04% 96.54%

DOLCEZZA: 23.93 12.32 102.86% 99.90%

AMERICAN G: 24.37 12.68 ??????? ??????

IDITA: 24.91 12.94

THE CHARLESTON???????????????????????????

BOMBER G: 24.61 13.03

PACE OF RACE = VERY FAST PACE

Those who were ADVANTAGED by the pace.....

All of BETULA, SECRET IDENTITY and DOLCEZZA was advantaged by the fast pace early on.....SI was just too far out of her ground and produced excellent sectionals late on. Her LAST 200M % was run at the same pace of her RACE which was pretty damn good with HER LAST 200M RACE% ALMOST MATCHING THE 400M % OF THE RACE!!!!!

Her sectional 200-100m was simply exceptional but she was given to much to do and coming very wide into the straight ultimately cost her the race!!!!!

FOLLOW!!!!!!

DOLCEZZA, BETULA and SECRET IDENTITY can all be followed in following runs.....SECRET IDENTITY Defnitely the standout of the 3!!!!!

Those who were DISADVANTAGED......

ORIENTAL BOUQUET
MOVING IN
BOMBER GIRL

ORIENTAL BOUQUET:

was the standout for me in this race...she ran an monstrous RACE and the times proved that. She had no right to finish where she did!!!!!

BOMBER GIRL:

Travelled 4 - 3 wide throughout the race...and moved up dangerously from the 300 - 150m...only fading late. Considering she covered the most ground and lost about 2.5L while doing that.....she was pretty good all round. A cracking run and should be followed over shorter...

NOTE: BOMBER GIRL won earlier this week at 8/1 and someone labelled her as 'a real runner in the race'

MOVING IN:

Was at an disadvantage by the hot pace and will benefit from a drop in trip next time Out.....

In short.....

ORIENTAL BOUQUET....... ran the best RACE here...a Monstrous RACE!!!!!!

SECRET IDENTITY.....Has an outstanding turn of foot and will benefit from sitting slightly closer when having a good draw....

DOLCEZZA.......will also improve with a step up in trip

For now BETULA looks best suited to 1400m or under.

Hope this helps a bit going into Sunday. I'll be happy to explain anything I can should there be any questions....I'll post the other 3 races later on.....with 1 horse,IF SECTIONALS are correct.....can be the NEXT SA SUPERSTAR!!!!! Also 2 other horses at HUGE PRICES who can upset on the day with the right circumstances.

NOTE....

THE CHARLESTON.....has ????? BY his name becoz the ST of him is wrong!!!! It's the 4th race now where ive found that a horse's ST are faulty. It makes me question all of them but I'm putting these 4 down as 'errors with their sectional timing devices' becoz i truly want this to be correct🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Thank you for posting this, Heinrich. It's not something that I normally interrogate myself, so it's appreciated.

One day when I have retired from my day job, I would like to spend more time on this.
Combine this with watching replays, will give you an edge…………….

Go check out the replay of the last Mrs Geriatrix race.
Keep an eye on Soldier’s Eye (White cap). Don’t find that in sectionals.
Hopefully in the comingled tote pools on Sunday she will have a good price, especially for a place.
She is now drawn in pole position………….

Interesting analysis you got going there Mr H. So where can one access ST data of sa races? Thanks

Sent you a PM Heinrich

And a how-to read the sectionals? See the attached file

Bob Brogan wrote:

And a how-to read the sectionals? See the attached file

File Attachment:

File Name: SectionalT...-23.docx
File Size:0 B

The attachment does not open. It's size is zero (kb).

Opens for me

Try now, had it set private I think

Let's Continue...

We take a look at the MISS GERIATRIX RACE now.....

RACE TIMES

1st Sec 2nd Sec 3rd sec 4th Sec L200m TIME
14.66 22.49 25.69 22.73 11.31 85.57

FINISHING SPEED : L400M = 107.56%
L200M = 106.11%

WHAT can we learn about the times and Finishing Speeds above....well....the 1st 600m was run 0.75(4.6L) secs SLOWER than that of the Colts and the VERY HIGH finishing Speeds proves that the race was run at a crawl and turned into a Sprint...This race finished only 0.57 (3.8L) secs ahead of the Colts showing just how well the Colts did at the end...although MISS G ran a much faster time...the race of the Colts are surely that of better quality.



WINNER/Horse L400T L200T L400% L200%

Overall RACE: 22.73 11.31 107.56% 108.08%

MISS GERIATRIX: 22.37 11.31 109.29% 108.08%

RASCOVA: 22.85 11.72 107.74% 105.03%

EGYPTIAN MAU: 22.84 11.68 107.86% 105.46%

DISTANT WINTER: 22.64 11.66 109.01% 105.83%

WHITE PEARL: 23.18 11.93 106.56% 103.53%

SOLDIERS EYE: 23.30 12.23 106.35% 101.30%

BOSNAY: 22.97 11.88 107.91% 104.32%

TAMIL TIGRESS: 23.95 12.42 103.54% 99.83%

EPIC VIEW: 22.79 11.70 109.00% 106.16%

MISS G simply outsprinted them here as can be seen by her HUGE last 200M FINISHING SPEED (FS)!!!! The sectionals she produced was terrific and will go on to become a top sprinter...but That is obvious...lets talk about the not so obvious.....

Horses that was DISADVANTAGED by the very slow pace.....

DISTANT WINTER....

Ran on well between 400 -200m but than slowed down a bit afterwards...showing that perhaps for now sprints will be better.

BOSNAY...

A horse I backed in this race and a horse who ran a big race here....STEP UP in trip is what is needed and with a Good Draw will be a real danger late on. Her previous run was seriously impressive aswell,showing that...over extra ground she will be A DANGEROUS OUTSIDER to content with.

EPIC VIEW....

Along with BOSNAY is looking for further and will run well with a genuine pace upfront.

SOLDIERS EYE...

Was baulked,switched and eased in running...seriously unlucky and has gotten wide draws last 2 runs....has shown early pace...so if getting a good draw...WATCH OUT!!!!!!

WIDE TRIP....

EGYPTIAN MAU...

Had a very wide trip throughout and was still running on at the end showing that the mile will suite down to the ground..

RASCOVA....

Was also blocked and still came home 2nd best of all....so is also looking for further.

EGYPTIAN MAU and RASCOVA will probably be the favs heading into Sunday....of the 2 of them....EGYPTIAN MAU is the better horse...all depends who gets the better draw

BOSNAY/EPIC VIEW/SOLDIERS EYE are the not so obvious horses to follow over a little bit further with better draws....

Come Sunday...the Fillies RACE will be very open.....better load up there.

Bob Brogan wrote:

Try now, had it set private I think

File Attachment:

File Name: SectionalT...3-2.docx
File Size:180.91 KB

It's working now, thanks.

Now....we take a look at a race that has me beaming with excitement.....

We take a look at the MAIN DEFENDER RACE....

RACE TIMES

1st Sec 2nd Sec 3rd Sec 4th Sec L200M TIME
8.85 22.47 24.37 23.13 11.66 78.82

FINISHING SPEED: L400M = 104.85%
! L200M = 103.99%

What does the PACE OF THE RACE SAY:

While it was slower than that of the BETULA race (over same CD) this race wasn't run at a bad pace at all....While the finishing Speeds of the race might appear on the slow side it is jnfact the exact opposite. The high FS was caused by a MONSTROUS effort from the winner....while he was visually good...only the sectionals tell us just how good the run really was.

WINNER/Horse L400T L200T L400% L200%

Overall RACE: 23.13 11.66 104.85% 103.99%

MAIN DEFENDER: 22.67 11.66 106.97% 103.99%

JERUSELEMA RAIN: 22.90 12.01 106.38% 101.41%

PURE PREDATOR: 23.06 12.02 ; 106.02% 101.70%

LET THE FLAG FLY: 23.68 12.29 103.48% 99.68%

OUTLAW KING: 23.74 12.29 103.23% 99.70%

ROMANCE IN ROME: 23.99 12.41 102.76% 99.32%

ETHANATOR: 23.76 12.58 104.11% 98.32%

Who was Advantaged...

PURE PREDATOR and JERUSELEMA RAIN ran decentvraces in defeat and can be followed over the same type of trip against weaker opposition.

ETHANATOR....is 1 to follow over shorter and will Defnitely go well over 1200m.

Now,before I go any further....

There is 1 thing I forgot to say....ST without PAR TIMES is like a burger without a patty....like peanut butter and jam without the jam🤣🤣🤣🤣 To put things into perspective 1 needs to have the sectional par times...For EVERY CLASS OVER all distances. At this point no such times exist to my knowledge and hopefully very soon I can establish par times for us to use....so the ST are half baked as of now....but atleast we have them.

Now.....the few times in HK RACING when I get similar sectionals such as delivered here....7/10 times they went on to become GRADE 1 winners atleast!!!!!

MAIN DEFENDER showed good early pace and than quickened in an impressive manner. His sectionals was that of a STAR IN THE MAKING....seriously!!!!! His last 200m was phenomenal.His RACE was the 4th best on average with the JULY being the BEST RUN RACE on the day closely followed by the GLADATORIAN RACE.

There are no sectionals on offer for the PRINCESS CALLA and GLADATORIAN races...especially the latter's RACE would've been great to compare with MD'S FS.... But I will say the following...

If either LUCKY LAD or SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT wants to beat this horse on Sunday...they better bring their A+ game!!!!!! It's a bit 'risky' for me to talk of the word 'Superstar' as yet,becoz all of the races I wanted to measure this race against I found no ST but for now...I'll say THIS IS A SERIOUS RACEHORSE!!!!!!!!

Bring on GOLD CUP DAY!!!!!!!!