Just watched the replay again.
How come an enquiry has not been opened into the way Nebraas was ridden?
Most of the race was 4 lengths behind the 2nd last horse then coming into the straight was ridden to move up until the 400m mark then the jock gives up and doesn't move a muscle until the 150m when he decides to ride the horse again.
Explanation would be felt something amiss and that would be accepted.If that is so then why did the jock try a bit the last 150m?
One thing you always have to remember is that our morning markets are made up of prices that make a total market % in the region of 130 - 140, depending on which bookmakers you are looking at. If you are looking at race time prices on Interbet or a foreign exchange you have to take into account that these markets are close to 100% market for the total field.
Therefore, in a race like yesterday's where Shangani actually shortens from the morning price of 12-10 with bookmakers into a race time trading price of trading at 9-10 on the exchanges, there has to be a dramatic drift about most of the other runners in the market.
Back in the day bookmakers prices moved relatively little as they were always betting to 120%+. These days we have 100% markets.
You are correct that obviously some horses won't be as ready as others, or just be given a run. However, you are wrong if you think that bookmakers are constantly in the know about these things in every single race. I've seen many a horse in recent times drift from 3-1 to 10-1 and still win. Be wary of falling into confirmation bias (Confirmation bias is the tendency to search, interpret, and recall information in a way that aligns with our pre-existing values, opinions, or beliefs. It refers to the ability to recollect information best when it amplifies what we already believe)
Last edit: 2 years 1 month ago by Justanotherpunter.
6/9 of the winners yesterday drifted from the morning price. This is the norm, not the exception.
At Greyville on Saturday 5/8 winners were drifters, whilst the other two winners traded the same race time price as the morning price.
At Fairview on Friday 3/6 winners were drifters, the other two winners were the same as the morning price.
At Turffontein on Thursday only 1/6 winners were drifters, with 1 the same price and the last race was abandoned. This was a good day for those backing market shorteners, but it really doesn't happen that often.
Last edit: 2 years 1 month ago by Justanotherpunter.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, durbs
I understand you JAP,just that a horse going from 18-10 out to 11-2,triple it's opening price,makes me wonder why the bookies are being so generous come race time and Nebraas ran true to that drift,honestly not even a trier.
......maybe the horse or jock ran out of puff as they both seem to be getting on in years....wanted to criticize the latter for a ride on Saturday....where he looked to be trying to steal a race with a break neck pace....only to read in the stipes report .....that his mount's saddle had slipped and he was hanging on for dear life.....:oops:
