Hollywood Durbanville, 01/10/2022

Taken the treble and the trixie, many a slip twixt the cup and the lip :-

1 Horse Racing South Africa HOLLYWOODBETS DURBANVILLE RACE 2 2022-10-01 13:30 3. LOVE IN WINTER M/Win 5.56 Pending
2 Horse Racing South Africa HOLLYWOODBETS DURBANVILLE RACE 5 2022-10-01 15:15 3. JAZZBELLA M/Win 0.77 Pending
3 Horse Racing South Africa HOLLYWOODBETS DURBANVILLE RACE 6 2022-10-01 15:50 4. FUTURE GIRL M/Win 2.00 Pending

Race 2, Love in Winter (11/2), conceded weight to all the rivals in the debut run and won comfortably. Being a four year old, could be well in here off a rating of 77. From a decent draw, expecting a big run. For me, this horse is over-priced.

Race 5, Jazzbella (0.77/10), taking on relatively unexposed rivals. From a decent draw, if not in need of the run, should win this.

Race 6, Future Girl (2/1), if not in need of the run, the one to beat. Debut win was really impressive.

Race 1: Maiden Special Weights 1000m

#11 RED SASH was supported to win on debut and she ran very well, just failing to catch the winner. That was over this CD from a good draw, but she definitely wants a touch further than 1000m and I think she’s going to battle to get to the front runners in time. I’ve said a few times now that I’m prepared to take my chances against horses drawn 8 and wider over this 1000m trip, so at (1-1) and drawn at 11 I’m looking to beat her and I’M AGAINST HER.

Picking the winner is another story.

#5 GYPSY EXPRESS (6-1) has been below her best on soft ground in her last two starts, but she’s had a few subsequent winners close to her in a few of her races and 1000m on a sound surface looks her best trip at this stage. She has shown pace in her races and the 5 draw should allow her to be well-positioned up the straight. Her best runs were also without the tongue tie on and that has been removed now too, so she’s first choice.

#3 GEORGIE GEORGE (10-1) improved over this CD in a first time tongue tie/blinker combo last time. He’s a moderate 4 yr old, but he jumps from a good draw and although he probably actually wants further, he should run well. #7 GRANDDADDY PURPLE (33-1) is also a moderate 4 yr old, but his best races have been over this trip and he could upset. #1 HOT ICE (8-1) made no show on debut, but he did find some outside support and he could show improvement trying good ground this time.

#4 TRIPPI T (8-1) is out of a Var mare and the stable says ‘has had a gallop and should run well’. He needs to be watched for market support.

SELECTION: 5-3-7, support 4?

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Race 1 : Master Point looks some value , led for a long way from a bad draw last start if similar tactics adopted here should go close

Race 7: Tipsy Taragon looks the banker on the card , Chansonette is a top horse but a long break and giving Tipsy 9.5kgs looks difficult

Ok guys I agree with views

I tend to punt favs however 16/1 ew Master Point vs evens Red Sash.

Master Point the way to go

My software puts #7Grandaddy 2nd behind #11 Red Sash. The price about #7 is all wrong IMHO. 50-1 at WSB can't hurt.

Clear day, not too warm, gentle breeze from South, course fast.
Race 1 Red Sash good debut but a very skinny price and a wide draw so I don't see value. The two Marshall runners, Cannatonic and Granddaddy Purple are very well in at the weights although not great draws. However, both are at big prices and worth an ew. A couple of first timers that could be anything, but no obvious betting support for them.
race 2 A competitive race. Giacomo Puccini very solid form but a big weight and worst draw. Love in Winter good debut and plenty scope for improvement is my pick. Seeking the One and Dean Street have good form.
Race 3 A tricky maiden Special Weights. Max the Otter unfortunately gets a horrible draw or he would have been clear first choice. Gimme's Laddie does not yet have a rating so must also carry top weight but good draw and progressive and may be good enough, but too short in the betting I think. All of State of Shock, Cosmic Event, Donder Strorm, Autumn Moon and Captain Cola have a chance at the weights.
race 4 Also very open and need to go wide this first leg of pick 6. My value pick is Yaya Maria- much better than last run when returning from a bit of a break and widest draw. On her juvenile form could upset at 10/1.
Race 5 Looks a 3 horse race between Jazzbella, Jam Jam and Fly Better. if Jazzbella is fit then she is the one from a nice draw, but Jam Jam has the advantage of a recent run under the belt.
I have Sunlit from Heaven and Lady Renee. The former has to carry top weight and a horrible draw, but she needed her first run so will improve a lot on that, and the further she goes the better. A place chance with some luck in the running. Lady Renee gets bottom weight, but needs to start showing us more. gets a nice draw this time and I'm expecting a much better run. last time was chased up from a wide draw against instructions, and then jockey dropped his hands and did not ride her out to the line. if she shows the sort of improvement that I'm expecting, then she can sneak into the back end of quartets.
race 6 Some progressive types, and it depends on which ones improve the most. Act Naturally has plum draw and a low weight, so she could be the value bet. Future Girl was very impressive last time and the form has been franked. She's probably the best filly in the race but must carry the weight. Gimmeafirst good debut win- could be anything. Butterfly Beauty good runs in KZN.
race 7 Chansonette is the class filly, but better further and coming off a long break, but is stilll the one to beat. Tipsy Tarragon very progressive, and could challenge under a low weight. These two should be enough for the exotics. Kwinta's Light and Santa Maria to round off the quartet.
Race 8 A tough race because most are using this as a stepping stone and fitness not known. If Pomp and Power behaves he is the class horse. Russian Rock also has his mental issues but is a proven Gr1 performer, gets a good draw and likes this distance, Stable companion Cosmic Highway tough draw but is capable. Trip of Fortune good comeback run and is my selection to win. Captain of Stealth and Silver Operator can never be discounted this trip and both get good draws and will ensure a solid gallop.
Race 9.A very tricky end to the day. My short list is Michael Faraday, Cheeky Laddie, Teatro and Radames but others with chances.