Hollywoodbets Durban July Log 17 May

Gold Circle today issued the first Log for the R5-million Hollywoodbets Durban July. At this stage all 7 automatic qualifiers have stood their ground after the First Declaration stage and they naturally occupy the top spots on the Log. Former winners, Do It Again and Belgarion, are ranked 8th and 11th respectively. The top 20 horses are listed in order of preference and the "next six" in alphabetical order. A further log will be issued following the running of the Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge on 11 June.

Finally - anyone else surprised that Astrix comes in at 3 ?

Hi Frodo, as per the Media Release the top 7 are automatic qualifiers in terms of the conditions of the race and are listed in ratings order.

the hawk wrote:

Hi Frodo, as per the Media Release the top 7 are automatic qualifiers in terms of the conditions of the race and are listed in ratings order.

Thanks - somehow I thought he was a 'preferred entry' - got confused with the Summer Cup winner; also interesting is the current odds on Red Saxon (when compared to Safe Passage) - think I will have a few rand on that before the Daily News :dry:

SAFE PASSAGE tops the JULY betting after impressive win .

Hello All.

I like a Naval Guard for the July, took some 200/1, and some places as well. I know as the log stands he will not get into the July.
I want to know if he wins the Jubilee Handicap in JHB, does he get an automatic ticket to the July?

Krisg wrote:

Hello All.

I like a Naval Guard for the July, took some 200/1, and some places as well. I know as the log stands he will not get into the July.
I want to know if he wins the Jubilee Handicap in JHB, does he get an automatic ticket to the July?

No he does not.

Qualifying Races: The winners of the following Grade 1 races in the current season will qualify automatically save
that, where appropriate, Gold Circle reserves the right to request a public gallop to determine the
well-being / fitness in the event that any of these winners have not raced within three months of
the date of final declaration (given the timing of these races, this would practically speaking only
apply to winners of Events 1; 2 & 3):-
1. The L’Ormarins Queens Plate 6. World Sports Betting SA Derby
2. World Sports Betting Cape Town Met 7. Premier’s Champions Challenge
3. Jonsson Workwear Cape Derby 8. Daily News 2000
4. World Sports Betting SA Classic 9. Woolavington 2000
5. Wilgerbosdrift SA Fillies Classic 10. Hollywoodbets Gold Challenge
Winners of the following races in the current season will enjoy preferential consideration for
inclusion in the final field:-
1. World Sports Betting Gauteng Summer Cup (Gr 1) 3. Cup Trial (Gr 3)
2. World Sports Betting 1900 (Gr 2)

Used to be a "preferred race" but lost that status a few years ago, but you had to be really confident to go down that route

Good Morning,
Thank you all for the feedback, much appriciated.

One has to say that Naval Guard with his current rating of 90 would be a very unlikely qualifier - he would have to win either the Jubilee (where the max increase in rating would be 6) or the Cup Trial (handicap) by many lengths to catch the Handicappers eye.

Interestingly, tomorrow is the Entries for both the Cup Trial and the Jubilee (both to be run on the weekend of 11 and 12 June) as well as the 2nd declaration for the July. I would guess that Silver Darling will be considered an 'automatic entry' (as she won the Woolavington) even though she a not an entry as of today I would also guess the owners would like her to run - they could aim for a 1-2 with Safe Passage - would certainly be a rare achievement and although imo she would be a hopeful entry, if you don't have a ticket, you don't have a chance :dry:

Another runner that has emerged as a contender yesterday, would be Waterberry Lane - not even on the First Log as part of the 'Next 6' - but yesterday finished along side Pomp and Power (and surely at current odds of 25/1 would be a better option than say Naval Guard or Warrior); if the connections decide to run, he would certainly be on the next Log - hopefully a 2nd Log will be published this week ?

Let's take out the crystal ball and predict the next log :

1 Jet Dark 130
2 Kommetdieding 129
3 Astrix 122
4 Pomp & Power 118
5 Red Saxon 118
6 Aragosta 109 ??
7 Safe Passage 117 ??
8 Silver Darling 112 ??
9 Do It Again 126
10 Linebacker 126
11 Belgarion 130
12 Flying Carpet 116
13 Puerto Manzano 120
14 Hoedspruit 116
15 Zapatillas 118
16 Waterberry Lane 115 ??
17 Sparkling Water 116
18 Second Base 118
19 Marina 118
20 Nebraas 116

Next 6 I think will stay the same - unless the feeling is that Naval Guard has done enough to be included

Of those on the Log, I think Red Saxon may be taken out after his poor effort yesterday (curiously trading at 50/1 this morning after 60/1 was available previously - I know, I wasted some money on him), while surely Belgarion needs to show improvement (probably in the Cup Trial) to cement his place

Looking at current betting, the value imo would be Flying Carpet (should also take his chance in the Cup Trial ?) trading at 50/1. The guys that took the odds on Safe Passage before yesterday, are smiling this morning.

I think one needs to wait to see the Entries tomorrow, but take a stand before the Cup Trial week-end - after that all the value will be gone :dry:

The last horse to run in the Jubillee and win the July was Heavy Metal. Coral Fever won the Jubilee as a 3yo, got supplemented for the July but never make the field. Eton Square won the Jubilee in its fourth start and made the July field and subsequently ran fourth in the July to Pomodoro. Naval Guard rating is too low for me and needs to run in the Cup Trial. From the older horses, Belgarion might run in the Cup Trial and all others in the Challenge.

To me Nebraas, Marina, Hoedspruit, Second Base will fight out the remaining positions.

Silver Darling will get supplemented in my opinion like Silvano's Pride and might be made the pace maker for the July

Let me throw another curve ball.
Airways Law was my 1st choice, when I looked at the initial July norminatiins and didn't see it there, I was disappointed. Is there a chance he gets supplemented. I know he looks like a Poly Horse.