It always amazes me how that 'law of the universe' with regard to winning favourites crops up wherever in the world racing is analysed - 35%. This relatively detailed study confirms that.
Simply stated for those who slavishly lump on horses at the top of the boards is this - 2 out of every 3 get beaten.
What I would like to see some kind soul do next is to analyse 'extraneous' reasons for losing favourites : eg slow away, saddle slipped, broke down etc. This might have an interesting additional impact on the figures as not all favourites are beaten entirely on merit.
What punters also need to understand is that odds making often panders to the herd instinct with profitable results. It is no secret that an untested Mike De Kock youngster will jump at far shorter odds than one from a less accomplished stable. This despite the reality that the aforementioned yard is certainly not renowned for winning with first timers! These, regrettably, are the lessons we all have to learn by paying!
A consistent thread which runs through the advice of all of those who have done well out of wagering is this : Knowing WHEN to bet is as important as WHAT to back. So that old saying 'The vulture is a patient bird' continues to ring especially true in racing today.
Certainly the massive proliferation of racing is one of the reasons why I now bet very infrequently and only for small stakes on racing. Being a lifelong victim its now like sitting at one of those sushi carousels - you have just spotted something tasty when something even tastier passes by. Before you know it you can be doing rockets ( in small chunks ) on runners you later cannot even remember backing.
On the other hand sport allows me more time to consider my strategy, ACCURATELY assess the form and then savour the event whilst being either elated or depressed by events on the field. Furthermore I get a huge number of 'true' results and seldom have to grin and bear a slipped saddle, dropped whip, bumping etc., - any or all of which can dramatically affect my fortunes and have nothing to do with the animal's innate ability.
The only sensible habit I have successfully developed over the years is this ; Show me an 'unbeatable' 1/3 shot that I feel will win and I just might have up to a monkey or maybe even a gorilla on it. But show me a 25/1 shot that I fancy and I will not baulk at taking R100k of it - much to the discomfort of the bookmakers who hate laying these horses for 'bigs'. Now - as bizarre as this may sound I have not done major damage on racing in years since adopting this strategy. And have had some memorable wins to boot.
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