I'm putting this up early as Saturday is 'vol op' with Super Rugby from early in the morning and it might have slipped my mind to post.
I have Zanadu contesting the Maiden 2500m @ 17:20. Here's what I can tell you :
1.) She is fit and well.
2.) Her trainer's quote : 'I expect a big run from her'.
Here are my 'why she will' and 'why she won't' observations :
3.) I have not seen any betting so I have no idea where she is likely to figure in the market.
4.) She had three runs in yielding going in 2017 and displayed no aversion to softer underfoot conditions. (We have had rain this week).
5.) She is reasonably drawn at 5.
6.) Why Brandon May? : Her last run was a sharpening outing for this event. She ran well above our expectations primarily because of Brandon's efforts. He was the first rider ever to get her out of the pens with the field. He switched her off in front and then rode her out to the finish with the hands as instructed. He was the first rider to heed our advice that she doesn't run for the stick. He fully merits being given another chance aboard her.
7.) Although I haven't studied the race in any great detail I could only identify two other runners who appear to have solid & obvious chances. I prefer not to comment on them as I am not privy to their preparation and well being.
8.) Zanadu will ensure that the race is not a Cape Crawl so it is unlikely to be a 'dawdle & sprint' affair where a horse with suspect stamina can win. We had all but one runner struggling in her wake at her last outing when they turned for home. We don't intend to take any prisoners this time either.
9.) She appears to have a particular liking for Durbanville whereas this meeting takes place at Kenilworth.
Please be aware that I don't punt my own horses.
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Race 1: The Suit put up a good debut and is the logical favourite, but many first timers.
Race 2: Not much between the top three - Love of my Life my selection.
Race 3: Sans Regrets good debut in open company. Should win this.
Race 4: Deepston has been priced up favourite but must improve a few lengths on its good debut to beat the older horses. Cyber Law ran a fair race after a long break, and if regaining his best form will win this. Good value at 5/1. Silver League poor run at Durbanville last time from a wide draw- should challenge this track. Due Volte has consistent form and should earn a cheque.
Race 5: Rebels Burst has already run twice this month, but is best in at the weights if finding best form. Capaill did not beat much last time, but runs off a competitive rating and will go close. The Boston Rose is consistent and should again earn a cheque.
Race 6: Sun at Midnight will enjoy the sting out the ground and has an ew chance in an open race. She is fit and well. Love Supreme has good form- outclassed in the Fillies Guineas but must be respected back down in class. Call to Account contested features last season, but returns from a year break. Ahoy me Matey is well in at the weights and with the 4kg claim should be competitive.
Race 7: We have Freedom Charter running here. She is fit and well but a very tough task at the weights. Rose in Bloom is the class horse and if repeating her run in the Majorca will be hard to beat. Platinum Class has improved each of her last three starts, and is my selection. Merysagos and Too Phat to Fly can earn a cheque.
Race 8: Fresnaye has not run since a below best showing in the Derby, but if fit will beat the boys here. Ancestry has not recaptured his two year old form, but is classy. Rocket Countdown disappointed in the CTS race, and has not run since, but if fit and well is good enough. Doublemint was on the upgrade, but has also not run for 100 days. What a Joker is best of the rest and has a good recent run under his belt.
Race 9: The 3 yo’s Unrivalled and Parade of Nations have been priced up joint favourites at 2/1, but I see no value there. The weights favour the older horses, and Zanadu is selected to win as she also gets the fillies allowance, and is a fair price at 3/1. Include Black Pimpernel and The Silva Fox in quartets.
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Machiavelli has been priced up favourite - I think that The Suit put up a marginally better debut, so I’d rather take the 7/2 on him. There were some positive comments regarding Larry Jack and Behr would normally have the choice, yet he is sitting at 25/1. Montego Bay appears to have attracted most support of the first timers.
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I think Silver League in the 4th is a massive runner. Last time out over 1600m, was drawn the widest and led from the jump, not surprising he tired and faded out. Van Niekerk to get it right today.
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
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