Let's Talk BETTING!

Let's take a break from all the 'politics' to talk betting!

Although I don't claim to be an expert on betting I can't help but notice that the only sector in which I have consistently shown profit is that of Sports Betting.

What follows might encourage those who have never tried it to have a whirl. Even 'old hands' might find something useful hereunder.

I have a couple of rules and philosophies which I apply :

1.) I seldom, if ever, take 'odds on' about any event.
2.) I play 'for profit' and not for 'killings'.
3.) I have largely abandoned taking ante-post bets

For the purposes of this exercise I am going to use an actual, recent football match as an example. Bear with me if I state the obvious on a few occasions.

West Ham vs Crystal Palace - Tuesday January 23rd 2018

I chose this match because the two sides looked evenly matched.

I had NO ante-post bet. Reason? I only ever back 'the draw' ante-post off a price of 3.5 (5/2) or better & I almost never back 'the win' ante-post unless one side is 5.0 (4/1) or better.

The odds were (working from memory) West Ham 2.75 Draw 3.1 Crystal Palace 2.45

I sat on my hands for the first period.

Crystal Palace scored first.

Revised Odds West Ham 7.0 (6/1) Draw 3.75( 2.75/1) Crystal Palace 1.44 (4/10)

I took R15,125/5,500 the draw & R6,000/1000 West Ham

So my punt immediately returned me about 20% better than had I taken the draw ante-post & about 160% better than backing West Ham ante-post.

The odds of my winning were now ARITHMETICALLY 1/2 whereas if I simply backed my fancy ante-post my odds of winning would have been 2/1 against me.

West Ham then equalised.

The draw shortened to even money & both teams were on offer at appoximately 3/1 and drifting as time went by.

I then started backing Crystal Palace s-l-o-w-l-y ( a gamble because they might have scored again. More conservative punters can just cover their full liability immediately & make their book 'over round') simply because I did not want to spend too much on the cover. Later in the match I was taking 10/1 Crystal Palace & also nibbling West Ham at a similar price so did not over invest & erode my 'draw' stock.

By the 80th minute my 'book' looked as follows :

Draw - wins me approx R 11,500 nett
Crystal Palace - wins me R750 nett
West Ham wins me R 1,000 nett

This looks like a real ARM (after race merchant) story but is something that plays out regularly.

My example involves quite a large total outlay but you can play off any base which suits your pocket. ( I use Interbet's 'In running' site which accepts bets of just R5 per play).

Now you might be thinking - 'That's all very well but what do you do when Barcelona plays the blind school?'

As mentioned earlier - I ALMOST NEVER take odds on. So in that case (if I even want to bet on such a one sided game) I would typically take Barcelona + 1,5 or +2,5 for small money - so long as it is an odds against price.

Do I ever lose? OF COURSE I DO. If side 'A' scores successively and opens up a 2 or 3 goal lead I am almost guaranteed to lose. But I will STILL cover the draw & 'B' to win (at monumental odds!) in case an Act Of God takes place. The premiership, in particular, is notorious for dramatic late changes so assume nothing.

Apart from getting a full 90 minutes of entertainment for your bets you should quickly develop the skill and personal techniques to win ( correction : 'profit') consistently. But just slapping down your money because you happen to be a Manchester United fan is a really silly way to play.

It will make you think twice about punting horses (at cramped odds) at arithmetical odds against you of 9/1 in a 10 horse field. And no way of trading out when your horse refuses to jump!

Hi Garrick, There is no system to beat the bookies. Much like any "roulette system" it wont work & will end up costing the punter big time, whatever team wins.
As I am typing this, Interbet are offering 1/3 & 15/8 the two cricket teams which are currently playing live. Either way the bookmakers are betting to between 125% to 135% in their favour. They cant lose, due to the percentages offered. Live betting represents the absolute worst value for the punter & is a one way ticket to the poorhouse. I do agree that it does increase the fun value of watching your chosen game but in no way is it ever going to be profitable in the long run.
Nothing gives me greater pleasure than to smash the bookmakers & my "system" is to take single bets on my fancies, maybe 1 or 2 per day. I will take any price that represents value to me. I have lumped on no 1 at Greyville tonight & was happy to take 8/10 & 7/10.
Either way we are all trying to make some dosh & have fun at the same time so good luck to all of us.

Cheers guys

Garrick do u find you can get on easy enough "in running"

I often took 0-0 in soccer matches using betfair and had the option to trade out, but lost interest, when it was banned.

Dave Scott wrote: Cheers guys

Garrick do u find you can get on easy enough "in running"

I often took 0-0 in soccer matches using betfair and had the option to trade out, but lost interest, when it was banned.

Very easy , Dave. It almost appears to be an automated system. There is a 6 second delay when you hit the 'enter' button but that countdown is reflected on your screen.

Tony T wrote: Hi Garrick, There is no system to beat the bookies. Much like any "roulette system" it wont work & will end up costing the punter big time, whatever team wins.
As I am typing this, Interbet are offering 1/3 & 15/8 the two cricket teams which are currently playing live. Either way the bookmakers are betting to between 125% to 135% in their favour. They cant lose, due to the percentages offered. Live betting represents the absolute worst value for the punter & is a one way ticket to the poorhouse. I do agree that it does increase the fun value of watching your chosen game but in no way is it ever going to be profitable in the long run.
Nothing gives me greater pleasure than to smash the bookmakers & my "system" is to take single bets on my fancies, maybe 1 or 2 per day. I will take any price that represents value to me. I have lumped on no 1 at Greyville tonight & was happy to take 8/10 & 7/10.
Either way we are all trying to make some dosh & have fun at the same time so good luck to all of us.

tony t bookies are betting 130 percent plus on horseracing but on sports the example you gave comes to 110 percent which confirms garricks assessment is correct ..if you shop around betting in running it can come down to 105 percent

you obviously don't take these bets on interbet

but the way you describe it, is the way to do it

Liked Palace to beat N"castle today....around evens. Decided to hold on...castle went 1 up...now palace at 5/1 the win and 5/2 the draw.

Went 2 units palace win and one unit draw to cover my bet.

Should have just followed the entire script and showed a good profit

Anyway, live to fight another day/bet.

i do it all the time......of course its not always a success but over time that is the correct play.

Warford vs Chelsea 8pm tomorrow

If anyone has a Skybet account,unibet,888sport and 32red(last 3 all use same odds)
You can win on the Player To Receive A Card market.They make bigger mistakes than Gerald Rattner.

Liverpool vSpurs

Draw 33/10
Spurs 12/1

2 units on draw
0.5 on spurs