durban july betting

170% book and includes a few that are likely to be exported. Rip-off

PeterD wrote: 170% book and includes a few that are likely to be exported. Rip-off

Which are "likely" and how would you price them, Peter?

marinesco on his way overseas and more than likely last winter gone as well on same plane..with the met winner doubtful and legal eagle missing the last 2 years of the july that will mean the top 4 in the met are non participants in the july..looking like a top division handicap this year :whistle:

Tony Mincione wrote:

PeterD wrote: 170% book and includes a few that are likely to be exported. Rip-off

Which are "likely" and how would you price them, Peter?

Hi Tony
All I ask is for a book at a reasonable over-round, not 170%, which if you take out those that trainers have already cautioned won't run is more like 200%!
eg. SnowDance not likely to get the trip so probably won't enter; Last Winter and Marinaresco export plans; Legal Eagle usually gives the July a miss etc etc.

PeterD wrote:

Tony Mincione wrote:

PeterD wrote: 170% book and includes a few that are likely to be exported. Rip-off

Which are "likely" and how would you price them, Peter?

Hi Tony
All I ask is for a book at a reasonable over-round, not 170%, which if you take out those that trainers have already cautioned won't run is more like 200%!
eg. SnowDance not likely to get the trip so probably won't enter; Last Winter and Marinaresco export plans; Legal Eagle usually gives the July a miss etc etc.

Hi Peter
This is a common misconception I think. If you take out the horses you think may not run, it comes to about 135%, not the other way!

The trick with ante-post to build value on the way down and getting the path horses take right. If you figure out who won't and can't get in then value is, if you get it right, with all the remainders. In all fairness, the game at this stage is all about what will run and what can improve to get in, then the individual prices are great, better than you will get later if you are right.

Quite right Tony, my mistake on the eliminations.
However, there are also some unexposed younger horses that may still get onto the list.

I see on SA Horse Racing that the first entries closed at 11:00 today. Does anyone know when these will be published?

Embargoed until some funtion tomorrow