I've got a bachelors this weekend so unfortunately will miss the racing. As has been said it's always tricky to find winners on these days and for me it's more about enjoying the day then really making money. But here are my early fancies.
R1 For me the value lies with Carmalita at 9's and more importantly at 14/10 a top 4. A length behind subsequent comfortable winner fly north and thus for me for a top 4 is a nice way to get the day started.
R2 STC one of if not best of the day.
R3 This race tends to throw up a result in years gone by if I'm not mistaken. I agree that Varsity girl will appreciate the drop in trip and may be the value play e/w at 16's and around 5/2 a top 4. At the weights my funny valentine well in and it's encouraging that Tarry had a winner on Tuesday and generally comes right on big days. If the weights don't hinder too much then spring wonder should also be included. Those three for the PA for me.
R4 SF made a sparkling debut and we should see the strength of that run on Thursday with Mike de Kock sending out the 2nd placed runner in the first on Thursday. I still think she's going to have to improve on that run to get passed folk dance. Entitled to need her last run and for me Witch of the west could make the places as I feel the step up in trip will suit. FD for the pa for me.
R5 Very open race and I won't discount anybody's fancies. For me if pushed for a selection it would have to be between Bull Valley and TTS. The letters yard has been in decent touch of late, Gavin aboard and at 5/2 a top 4 il be with Gavin for the places. These two for the PA for me.
R6 Il load up for this leg. De Kock vs Tarry and agree Ideal Secret is a big runner too. Missouri and silver God warrant inclusion here too. 2,3,6,13,14 and add big bear if you wanna feel safer but I think the four mentioned will suffice. The latter two at 33's may be worth some places come race time.
R7 One of the most open summer cups of the past few years with the likes of Yorker, LTK etc all moved on to better things. Thus a new champion is ready to be crowned. My first pick is Orchid Island who has smashed the boys before and Delpech could sneak a double in the same colors as the previous race but it doesn't stop there. I too like the fact that Pagoda has form behind Al Sahem and I feel this is his best trip. Comeback run form has worked out pretty well and let's not forget Woodruff's record in the race. Same applies to Gavin choosing Brazzaville. Agree with earlier sentiments at the prices Mac de lago at 12's a top 4 is worth a shrewdy's bet, however I'm firmly with the above mentioned. Social order and French navy despite the draw also make appeal. 5,9,15&19 for the pa and if I can afford it then also -7.
R8 Nother Russia should be a banker in the PA for me and the biggest danger I make Tahini followed by Bella Sonata.
R9 Fortissima, Gone baby Gone, Save the Rhino in that order for me. But wide open. Ilitshe can upset.
Do you think Woodruff would run Schippers against the boys in race 2, if he didn't believe she could win the race, bearing in mind, race 1 is a fillies race?
Guessing has never been widely acclaimed as a good gambling strategy.
I think she has a chance - Veru unlucky ;ast time - going to get allowance and ran to the same rating as the favourite - Put it this way the favourite is not a sitter I dont think
Weather could play a vital part in the run up to Saturday. Thunderstorms predicted in the afternoons and evenings. On Saturday heavy thunderstorm in the morning and late afternoon predicted.
If I had the time to embark on another research project, I would have liked to examine the major breeding influences in past summer cup winners - much like similar research projects conducted on the Kentucky Derby. The body of data available from those projects are sufficient to shortlist to within 2 horses the potential Derby winner from breeding analysis only.
any guesses as to what bloodlines would be most significant/influential in summer cup winners.
