VAAL 10/10/2017

What can we fire early

Just Another Tipster wrote: What can we fire early

Wait and see if they run - track in bad shape from over-use so if it rains tonight problems -

1 Premier Show

2 Twirl

3 Vacquero

4 Ma Amour / Excalibur's Return / Cassini

5 West Coast Warrior / Gentleman Only / Blazing Winter / Equator

6 Sovereign Reign

Race 1: Leslie's Legacy should be too good for this field - may be struggling with form, in which case Torio Lake would seem next best.

Race 2: Carmalita looks the obvious choice - but watch the market here, because White Winter presents a serious threat - first run at the track so might need the run.

Race 3: On exposed form there isn't much to seperate the 3 and 4 year olds. We just don't know how good any one of them might be. The fact that De Kock has included some more experienced runners here raises a few questions
about cascapedia. Of the older runners Cold Cash looks the hardest to beat - will need a race with pace though. Cascapedia stands out as the class of the field - but has probably stiffest test to date here. After all the scratchings I am going to go with Elevated.

Race 4: The race seems the perfect spot for Hot Talent's return, but not without challengers - Cassini is one who debuted under high expectation and was sent back to the farm immediately. Wings Of Charne, Serene Countess . Ma-amour
and even go'halinn also have some claims. Unless something else shows vast improvement, Hot Talent should be hard to beat at less than a length below median - but watch the market since 3/1 about a rested horse at a route is not the smartest of odds - and I believe Cassini is going to be a big runner.

Race 5: The legitimate form horses are The Dazzler, Defy Gravity, Seventh Of June, Carmalita and perhaps Stavinsky, and then we come to the graft - Cheat the Cheaters, Sheet Weaver, Diamond Dancer, and maybe Gentleman Only. I wouldn't leave Sheet Weaver or Gentleman Only out of any permutations. Stavinsky has definite claims if well and could shock them all- 8yr old. I am going to go with Diamond Dancer from in form stable and Jockey Combo - with Sheet Weaver a strong challenger.

Race 6: The legitimate form horses are The Golden Man , Manitoba - with El Maestro, The Shredder, and Arabian Beat making up the graft - The Shredder goes to post with lightest weight , and doesn't mind Mark Khan putting up over
1kg. Arabian Beat has to be better than 50 lengths back at a 1200m race and El Maestro must be showing something to bring him back to track after 224 days, but probably in need of the run at this trip. The Golden Man might find this a little sharp against this competition. Manitoba would need too show some improvement to compete with this lot. If Arabian Beat has addressed his troubles, should be the one to beat here.

Race 7: The form horses are Pillaroftheearth - obvious and perfectly placed, Kontiki and Cataluga - the graft Le Tigre, Daspoort and Unchained Melody - Daspoort will try to make use of the light weight and appy claim, Unchained Melody looks to offer improvement while Le Tigre could just hold some form from LTO

Race 8: Form horses are Tundra Taita, Azkur, Seeking Gold, Subtle Force and Tobesuretobesure maybe Beautiful Shay could be included. Sammi Moosa could be the graft horse. While apparently battling with form the 7yr Old Tobesuretobesure would be streets ahead here if fit and well, hinted at a little condition last time out over shorter - but hard to be confident. If she's not well the race becomes mediocre with all of Tundra Taita, Azkur, Seeking Gold and Subtle force pretty evenly matched - Tundra Taita probably got the edge there on class. Sammi Moosa could upset that entire lot of contenders though.



EW Selections

Race 1: Leslie's Legacy***
Race 2: White Winter***
Race 3: Elevated***
Race 4: Cassini***
Race 5: Defy Gravity
Race 6: El Maestro
Race 7: Cataluga
Race 8: Subtle Force

Race 3

Full Mast

Race 5

Sheet Weaver, Diamond Dancer & Gentleman Only

Race 6

Manitoba & Rightfull King

Race 7

Alpine Glacier

Race 8

Seeking Gold & Beautiful Shay...



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Race 4: (1) Hot Talent
Race 5: (3) Sheet Weaver
Race 6: (2) Arabian Beat

My revised selections, if they run.

EW Selections

Race 1: Leslie's Legacy***
Race 2: White Winter***
Race 3: Elevated***
Race 4: Cassini***
Race 5: Defy Gravity
Race 6: El Maestro
Race 7: Cataluga
Race 8: Subtle Force

Definitely not for the high percentage players,

If they race
Race 2: Fly North ran a cracker second run blinkers despite a saddle slip and worth a nibble e/way @ 12/1
Race 5 : Sheet Weaver likes the course , jock and trainer 1 for a day , worth having a nibble @ 6/1

Craig Pienaar wrote: If they race
Race 2: Fly North ran a cracker second run blinkers despite a saddle slip and worth a nibble e/way @ 12/1
Race 5 : Sheet Weaver likes the course , jock and trainer 1 for a day , worth having a nibble @ 6/1

Fly North a nice selection , i recommended it here last run - when saddle slip, so definitely one too consider.

Just Another Tipster wrote: What can we fire early

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General Information
Item Comment
Weather @08h00 Partly Cloudy, 0% chance of rain 5deg-18deg,26 Km/h S/W Crosswind
Rainfall Last 24 Hours Nil
Rainfall Last 7 Days 37mm
Irrigation Last 24 Hours Nil
Irrigation Last 7 Days Nil
Penetrometer Reading 25
Track Condition GOOD TO SOFT
False Rail Zero back straight 5m on the bend with 5m spur at 500m, MIDDLE RAIL: 9m in from 1600m to pull up area

Gladiator wrote: General Information
Item Comment
Weather @08h00 Partly Cloudy, 0% chance of rain 5deg-18deg,26 Km/h S/W Crosswind
Rainfall Last 24 Hours Nil
Rainfall Last 7 Days 37mm
Irrigation Last 24 Hours Nil
Irrigation Last 7 Days Nil
Penetrometer Reading 25
Track Condition GOOD TO SOFT
False Rail Zero back straight 5m on the bend with 5m spur at 500m, MIDDLE RAIL: 9m in from 1600m to pull up area

Based on this they should race ? No rain in past 24 hrs...