Fairview on Friday 01/09/2017

Only having time to look at a few races:

Race 1 is a very tricky race offhand.

Money Horse in a weak field is Kirinia, but doesn't impress me , so watch market support on stablemate Captain Alex - Line horse to the Money Horse. Speed horse is Nimble - just ever so slightly over the standard time and 6 unsuccessful attempts thus far- so easily beaten. Vanilla Rose is lightly raced but had opportunity to improve off debut and didn't - could still improve since moves back to poly , needs to find a length and bit off debut to get past nimble - did lose a length and raced green - so scope is there - being that close, you would have to respect her stable companion - Petronius Maximus, and then Fritz Nobis also to be included.

So a difficult one if you are looking to put money down on the win. I would make it a close fought tussle between Petronius Maximus and Captain Alex, with Fritz Nobis either in front of them or just on their heels.

In short any one of five horses could potentially win this race --- unless you have some inside info

Race 2: Looks very nice -- but usually posting way before the race tends to see a much different result.

There seems to be a two horse contest here between 10/1 Sweet Pleasures, and 20/1 Seventh Symphony. I don't know how good Sweet Pleasures will be, but Seventh Symphony should be hard to beat - if a runner, Butterfly Spirit and Stopthinkingofme might be out to upset the little contest. Seventh Symphony - stable set up doesn't scream success though with a 2% strike rate and jockey combo at around 2%. Makes Sweet Pleasures the more attractive and I see already come into 72/10 - The Two Greef runners the dangers.

Adams, i hear u on race 1.. but i make it between 2 Bengal tiger & 1 John in flight upset/massive runner is 5 Fritz Nobis

2 NACRE for me is the one to beat Adams based on the novice plate run, do like 1 Seventh Symphony, 8 Vanda & 5 quinella looks best of the rest cud even upset..

Kirinia
Bengal Tiger

Galadriel
Silva Key
Quinelia

State Capture

Thirtytwo Squadron
Rosslyn Chapel

Olympic Power

Jet Explorer

That is the problem , a number of first time runners for some stables, with first time runs on the surface and even at the center. Thus for me playing the race without inside information is as good as gambling.

Good old fashioned handicapping sense would tell me the money horse at 25 runs without cracking it's maiden is not a solid bet -- So I will choose Nimble for the sake of having to choose something , and that's not even a solid betting opportunity.

I am going to take my chances on Sweet Pleasures if the odds are worth it , Overlaid money horses do as well as favorites in terms of strike rate, but obviously with a positive ROI - while favorites at 30% strike rate will return a negative ROI.

Generally I don't bet in the week, as I just don't have the time to properly peruse the form.

Will like to banker da Sham horses in the last two races.
Some guidance from Len will be appreciated.
Clanners with runners all the best.

For Luck Sake (7) is a through and through poly horse and must be in the shakeup.Good place bet
Bah can also feature here

Must have missed a frame or two as Smith and Greef (3/1) have runners in the second and Smith in the 4th and 7th as well

Also Jacques comments on the fifth but nothing in the first (4/1)