1) Spain have a very settled and balanced side, unlike before where they needed to rely on Raul. Raul is not even in the squad this time around, as Luis Aragones looks to build a trophy-winning team. The assured goalkeeping of Iker Casillas, the steady leadership of Carles Puyol at the back, the inventiveness of David Silva in midfield, and the deadly partnership of Fernando Torres and David Villa upfront make for a team of world-conquering pedigree. Spain are not only strong in every department, they are a young side with energy to burn as well... unlike the Italians who are now older, and as a result, slower. Spain will be able to capitalise, especially in the latter stages of the game.
2) Spain have David Villa. I cannot emphasize this fact enough, because David Villa has proved he is far and away the best finisher in the world at the moment. 4 goals in 2 games, including a hattrick against Russia in their opening match, shows Villa will be a handful to any defence in the world. An Italian defence without Fabio Cannavaro may find it hard to cope with the unpredictable runs of the Valencia frontman. Villa also netted late on to sink Sweden in the second game. He was rested for the match against Greece, and as such will be fresh and raring to go, coming up against the veterans of Italy.
3) Italy come into this game without 2 of their most important players. The usual midfield partnership of both AC Milan and the Italy national side, Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo, will not feature today as both players are suspended. Italy will surely miss Gennaro Gattuso, for his no-nonsense approach to the game - hard-tackling and tireless running throghout the 90 minutes. Italy will also miss Andrea Pirlo, for his range of passing, his vision, and his deadliness in deadball situations. Andrea Pirlo is arguably the best distributor of the ball from set-pieces in the world, both freekicks and corners, and without him it remains to be seen if Italy can be as deadly from deadball situations as before.
4) Italy, a traditionally good defensive side, have a rather shaky defence. That is down to a couple of factors. One, Fabio Cannavaro's unwelcomed injury right before the start of the tournament leaves a huge void in defence. Two, the bold decision of Roberto Donadoni to leave out AC Milan's legendary defender Allesandro Nesta may well prove to be a way of self-destruction, if Spain are able to exploit Italy's defence today. With Marco Materazzi out of favour, Donadoni is likely going to pair 35-year-old Christian Panucci and Giorgio Chiellini in the heart of defence, flanked by Gianluca Zambrotta and Fabio Grosso. With Grosso not looking the most assured wingback, I have a feeling Xavi and Iniesta will have good games running at him. Also not to metion the potential of Fernando Torres and Villa in breaking up the Panucci-Chiellini combo.
5) Spain have not lost to Italy in the last 5 meetings between the sides, During that time, Spain have won 3 times, drawing the other 2. Their last meeting happened very recently in March 2008, when a sublime David Villa volley earned the Spaniards a 1-0 victory in Elche. With Italy's last win against Spain coming all the way back in 1994, a full 14 years ago... I feel Italy may be psychological less prepared compared to Spain. Spain have looked better in recent months, especially since the clicking of Fernando Torres and Villa as Spain's first-choice partnership, and I believe with Spain's favourable recent meetings against Italy, they could take this match in 90 minutes, without having to resort to extra time.
6) Spain have now won their last 9 matches. Another win today will see them breaking their all-time best record, stretching their run of wins to 10 games. Ironically, back in 1927, Spain held a 9-match winning streak as well... and that streak was ended by Italy! I doubt the same will happen again though... different times, different teams, you know. Spain are also on a 7-match winning streak in competitive football, and a win here will also see them break their all-time best record. To be honest, it is not so much about the records... it is about the way they have been playing that resulted in those wins. They are an attacking side with a very settled defence led by Carles Puyol and Iker Casillas.
Group winners Portugal, Croatia and Holland have all gone out, defeated by teams finishing second - Germany, Turkey and Russia respectively. I think Spain will break that jinx. Italy are no where near their best without Cannavaro and Nesta in this tournament. Now they will have to do without Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo as well. With Luca Toni and Mauro Camoranesi out of form, it is hard to see where the goals are going to come from for the Italians. The same cannot be said about Spain, who look capable of scoring everytime they attack. I am siding with the Spaniards.
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