Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

mr hawaii
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 10 months ago

Lucky_Dude wrote: Today the system tied it's worst performance in picking only 3 legs. It did however have the 2nd placed horse in the losing legs, so it wasn't too far out I guess. It really teased me today as it was in after the first three legs, and then only crashed and burned. I did pick up a minor tweak to improve it though, so at least I learned something today. So we have another weekday pick six carry over. Hopefully we can catch a nice carry over one on the week end again. An interesting statistic is the percentage ones permutation is relative to the net pool, here are the systems...

# Date Track LD's Perm Net Pool %ofPerm

1 2017-08-15 Kenilworth R8 640.00 R868 029.98 1.00%
2 2017-08-16 Greyville R4 800.00 R736 051.40 0.65%
3 2017-08-17 Vaal R16 800.00 R703 810.21 2.39%
4 2017-08-18 Fairview R9 000.00 R1 059 742.76 0.85%
5 2017-08-19 Turffontein R38 880.00 R2 238 775.25 1.74%
6 2017-08-19 Kenilworth R1 296.00 R1 180 364.90 0.11%
7 2017-08-20 Greyville R22 500.00 R2 231 366.16 1.01%
8 2017-08-21 Flamingo R14 112.00 R548 732.00 2.57%

Do any of you have a rule of thumb as to how big you will allow your permutations to get compared to the net pool?

I suggest you play 6 days a week and rest on the seventh - MONDAY FLAMINGO- The pools are always way smaller than other places and unless you are Nostradamus you need to play much wider in this place so your perm is bigger into a way smaller pool - Today the pool was only 400k before the added carryover - Greyville was 2 mil the jackpot there was 600k - Fairview was 1 mil and the Jackpot was 450k ..The Cape was over 1 mil and Turffontein over 2 mil so it makes no sense to speculate at this place

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 10 months ago

#686372

Pick 6 #9 Vaal 2017/8/22

Race 3 (Leg 1) 1,2,3,5,8
Race 4 (Leg 2) 1,2,3,4,8,9,10
Race 5 (Leg 3) 1,2,3,4,5,10
Race 6 (Leg 4) 1,2,3,4,6
Race 7 (Leg 5) 1,2,5,7
Race 8 (leg 6) 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

Cost 46200
% on R100 Bet 0.216450216

A whopper of a permutation. We'll need some big outsiders to come in to make that one pay.

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 10 months ago

#686408

What a rush,... not! The system only managed two legs from a R46200 permutation! Both pick sixes attempted at the Vaal have been carry over pick sixes so far. The stats now look as follows...

# Date Track LD's P/L LD's RunTotal

1 2017-08-15 Kenilworth -R100.00 -R100.00
2 2017-08-16 Greyville -R100.00 -R200.00
3 2017-08-17 Vaal -R100.00 -R300.00
4 2017-08-18 Fairview R393.15 R93.15
5 2017-08-19 Turffontein -R100.00 -R6.85
6 2017-08-19 Kenilworth -R100.00 -R106.85
7 2017-08-20 Greyville R518.04 R411.19
8 2017-08-21 Flamingo -R100.00 R311.19
9 2017-08-22 Vaal -R100.00 R211.19

Ave profit per R100 bet R23.47

Tomorrow we'll try again. I don't even know where they are racing

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20 to 1
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686489

@ Lucky... Please post your P6

Looks like I'm following your selections today :silly:

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686490

I hope I get a percentage if it comes in :woohoo:

20 to 1 wrote: @ Lucky... Please post your P6

Looks like I'm following your selections today :silly:

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686494

Pick 6 #10 of 30 Scottsville 23/8/2017

Race 3 (Leg 1) 1,2,3,4,10,12,13
Race 4 (Leg 2) 1,3,6,9,10,13
Race 5 (Leg 3) 1,2,7,8,9
Race 6 (Leg 4) 1,3,7,10,11
Race 7 (Leg 5) 2,3,5,7,8,10,11,12,15
Race 8 (leg 6) 1,6,13

Cost 28350
% on R100 Bet 0.352733686

The system is going wide for a better ride today. We'll need some of the fancied favourites to get rolled to make this one profitable.

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686559

Not too bad today, 5 legs and a 3rd place in the leg the system missed. So I had a long hard look at why the system couldn't find Master Of Mischief, the horse that knocked the system out. And because of that, I have found a new tweak I have added.... Well we are a third of the way through the experiment and this is how the systems stats look...

# Date Track LD's P/L LD's RunTotal

1 2017-08-15 Kenilworth -R100.00 -R100.00
2 2017-08-16 Greyville -R100.00 -R200.00
3 2017-08-17 Vaal -R100.00 -R300.00
4 2017-08-18 Fairview R393.15 R93.15
5 2017-08-19 Turffontein -R100.00 -R6.85
6 2017-08-19 Kenilworth -R100.00 -R106.85
7 2017-08-20 Greyville R518.04 R411.19
8 2017-08-21 Flamingo -R100.00 R311.19
9 2017-08-22 Vaal -R100.00 R211.19
10 2017-08-23 Scottsville -R100.00 R111.19

Ave profit per R100 bet R11.12

So it has a 20% strike rate and averages over 11% profit on the money bet. How long will it stay in the green?

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686679

Pick 6 #11 of 30 Turffontein 24/8/2017

Race 3 (Leg 1) 1,4,7,11
Race 4 (Leg 2) 1,2,6
Race 5 (Leg 3) 1,6,8
Race 6 (Leg 4) 1,2,3,4,7,8
Race 7 (Leg 5) 1,7
Race 8 (leg 6) 1,2,3,11

Cost 1728
% on R100 Bet 5.787037037

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mr hawaii
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago - 7 years 9 months ago

#686682

[4, 11]/[1, 2, 3, 5, 6]/[6]/[1, 7]/[7, 8, 11, 15]/[1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12]
i hardly ever take one

Last edit: 7 years 9 months ago by mr hawaii.

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Frodo
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686684

My suggestion for this all maiden day ....

1,4,7,9,11
1,2,3
1,6,8
1,7,8
7,14,16
1,2,3,11,12

R102 will get you 5% odd ..

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Lucky_Dude
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Re: Lucky Dude's Pick Six Experiment...

7 years 9 months ago

#686738

I'm rich! I'm rich! I won the pick six! So how much have I won? Nothing... Only just over 45% of my betting stake back....Gee thanks Tote. Remind me again why I do this...

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