Does the draw really make a difference?

looking at the past results of the Greyville 1900.

2016: draws 10 - 16 - 15 - 14
2015: draws 12 - 11 - 17 - 15

maybe too much is made of the draws? more so the punters are actually confused more, and most of the time base their selections on the better drawn horses.

A good draw is advantageous as you can try and get into a good position close to the rail without using up too much. Plenty is up to luck in running if you are drawn wide. If you look at the July last year the first 5 were drawn 18-17-14-12-16 so not disadvantaged by the bad draw.

There are certain courses where the draw is more of a concern than others.

I am referring only to Greyville, for the longer distance the draws seems to be of little significance, far too often the draw is always mentioned by all and sundry... look at the stats and that proves that the draw at Greyville over the longer distance is not a disadvantage.

Hi Avataar, the draw at Greyville can affect the results and in the past, before the course was split in two it played more of a role.

The races over 1600m are most affected as they start the race on the bend which means the horses drawn wide have to work a lot harder to get position upfront or drop out completely.

To me the most important factor is the distance of the false rail which should be declared in the ComputaForm at time of print. I asked for this two years ago but alas.....anyway, I believe the false rail setting plays a major role on the draws because;

When the rail in set in, 2-3 meters the field does not fan out coming off the bend and the horses coming from off the pace have to make their move earlier and travel 3-4 wide to get position. With the field not fanning out the horses coming from off the pace have more horses falling back on them and this gives the horses racing handy more of a chance.

When the rail is set out, 6-12 meters the field fans out coming into the straight and generally the horses racing handy dart down the inside giving more of a clear run to the horses coming from off the pace giving the horses that were dropped out from a bad draw more of a chance. A clear run down the outside as opposed to switching twice in the straight has obvious benefits.

This is just my opinion but you need to remember that the course has been cut in half so you have to compile new stats. In the past you could have a false rail setting of 19 meters which nullified a bad draw but i am not sure that this distance setting would even be possible now. The obvious traffic problems in the July now is an example, you cannot have a false rail setting of 12m with that many horses at Greyville any longer. In many ways now the July has become more of a "luck in running" race.

All disclaimers apply

I do understand all that is said, I just want to point out that since the poly track was introduced , in the last 2 years the BW 1900 , The high draws filled the first 4 past the post, the only thing I do not know for sure is the false rail and the positioning of it.

Your draws seem a bit off for the 2016 race it was 9-5-14-13

The draws for today's BW1900. Was. 8 - 10. - 1 - 12, the draws are more high than low.