Is it good to think to know too much???

Heinrich, I do agree with you that pace makes the race, absolutely agree. But to calculate your own MR's, by definition, you will first need to find the line horse and then make your subjective adjustments, if any. In their comments section, Sporting Post even warns you of a dodgy Ability Rating if they believe the pace of the race was false.

heinrich wrote: Mac I think the use of a line horse is absolute BS. To me its the pace of the race that matters most and decides whether or not a horse will run well.In many small races,we get well handicapped favs that run off the board or comes in 2nd or 3rd with a 'outsider' winning!!! Than coz that 'outsider' beat a good horse with a decent rating his rating goes up aswell...Most times using a line horse who didn't like the pace of the race,hence not running to his true ability.So the winner will get a false rating.

That is on the money.


And normally the bigger the field the least chance of an upset ..... most big field races are run at true pace ( western cape racing not included) and that formlines in big fields is always a great guideline. Small fields create false run races and give false results/ratings.

heinrich wrote: Mac I think the use of a line horse is absolute BS. To me its the pace of the race that matters most and decides whether or not a horse will run well.In many small races,we get well handicapped favs that run off the board or comes in 2nd or 3rd with a 'outsider' winning!!! Than coz that 'outsider' beat a good horse with a decent rating his rating goes up aswell...Most times using a line horse who didn't like the pace of the race,hence not running to his true ability.So the winner will get a false rating.

You have just identified the races we can ignore, and the handicappers can't......those are the very ones!!!
It is also often those races that create Horses with premature (but temporary)champion status on our forum.
If you can assess those races correctly it can save a lot of money following overrated horses!

Also why I often have horses rated between 2 figures temporarily or with ??? next to them (i.e. Subject to confirmation...lol)
Poor handicappers aren't allowed that freedom!

Yeah agree,its a tough job the handicappers have.I mean some of them must know that certain horses have BS MRs.But they have their guidelines to follow.So if they get it 'wrong' the general public will cry fowl every time.
Mac...I don't and have never gotten a line horse,in theory I understand it,but in practise its crap(just my opinion) I like to look at the day at a whole...I'll start with the Pen reading and Wind conditions.From there figure out the pace of the race!!....but THE REAL VALUE lies in races that is done...finding those WHO RAN AGAINST THE GRAIN...those horses who swam against the stream in a particular race...once I find them,I'll compare their rating with those who finished in front of him ect...than compare it to the highest Class over the same CD for that day,relate the speeds of the races than afterwards compare it with other distances.Than I'll come to conclusions that I horse is underrated or overrated. So I don't really care to find line horses,but I do think if I were able to find them,i might use it like you guys do.

In glancing through a lot of the daily "tipping"threads or threads like this,about analysis etc. It appears that some clanners lose sight of the fact that competing with each other isn't what it's all about.
In reality every gamblers competition is with their own P&L! - winners show a profit and losers show a loss ...it really is that simple.
If whatever you do shows positive returns , you are one of the 5% and you are cracking it....and your increasing balances should be all the recognition you need!

In answering the topic, as punters we are delusional, but won't admit it :lol: .

rob faux wrote: In glancing through a lot of the daily "tipping"threads or threads like this,about analysis etc. It appears that some clanners lose sight of the fact that competing with each other isn't what it's all about.
In reality every gamblers competition is with their own P&L! - winners show a profit and losers show a loss ...it really is that simple.
If whatever you do shows positive returns , you are one of the 5% and you are cracking it....and your increasing balances should be all the recognition you need!

In my experience, it is also important to be able to maintain your strategy while experiencing a 'loss making run' - everyone suffers from losing 'periods' - if you can convince yourself that you are doing 'ok' (whatever that means in your own mind) over a longer period, keep on doing what you are doing.

If however you are losing consistently over the years, maybe it is time to consider changing your strategy - unless this is really a hobby and you don't mind losing - but for me it surely is not 'fun' if I'm losing all the time

Have to agree.I went thru a bad patch of abt 3weeks lately...and I was sad,pissed off and just irrated.On average I have like 2 'bad dish' months per year,so when I do go on a losing streak,its very frustrating coz I'm not really doing anything differently at most times!!! But my stats show my bad months are usually around this time of year when nags receive their AHS injections and when they turn of age at 1Aug. Those who doesnt do this for fun,should welcome losing thou,coz its only thru losing when we learn where we are going wrong.So I welcome losing,just don't like it.

heinrich wrote: Have to agree.I went thru a bad patch of abt 3weeks lately...and I was sad,pissed off and just irrated.On average I have like 2 'bad dish' months per year,so when I do go on a losing streak,its very frustrating coz I'm not really doing anything differently at most times!!! But my stats show my bad months are usually around this time of year when nags receive their AHS injections and when they turn of age at 1Aug. Those who doesnt do this for fun,should welcome losing thou,coz its only thru losing when we learn where we are going wrong.So I welcome losing,just don't like it.

Do you advise your clients to play during the AHS injection period...

naresh wrote:

heinrich wrote: Have to agree.I went thru a bad patch of abt 3weeks lately...and I was sad,pissed off and just irrated.On average I have like 2 'bad dish' months per year,so when I do go on a losing streak,its very frustrating coz I'm not really doing anything differently at most times!!! But my stats show my bad months are usually around this time of year when nags receive their AHS injections and when they turn of age at 1Aug. Those who doesnt do this for fun,should welcome losing thou,coz its only thru losing when we learn where we are going wrong.So I welcome losing,just don't like it.

We do play...but approach all cards with caution.But it depends on day to day findings,but this past period,we were some of the 'stupid ones'

Do you advise your clients to play during the AHS injection period...