Selection criteria-Following the money?

How important is it to look at a horses price in the market?
Is it good if it sharpens? Is it a concern if it drifts? How about betting volume, is that a good indicator? I've seen so many heavily backed favourites get rolled. What are your views on this?

Knowing who backs them helps

I would never follow money on an exposed horse for example who has been running to its usuall MR


Keeping an eye on money is very important, but 9/10 the value has gone when you notice the price collapsing ( unless you sitting watching markets all day )

Drift can also be alarming, especially when the horse is attached to stables that attract market support

Most important is ascertain it's level of fitness and whether the horse is well placed in terms of the weight allocated.
Favourites are often false and identifying them is the key to having a bet and finding value - remember horses all have programmes and the non triers in a race are quite plain to see.

LD, I hope many posters will respond to your query because I don't think any one person will give you the correct answer because of the many facets to betting (markets) generally. I am not an expert at this, but here is my views for what it's worth.

If we look at first time juveniles, then the claim is normally a fair indication. Two things to remember, it's still no guarantee the money horse will win, and just as important, the claims on juvenile races are relatively small, therefore it does not take much money to "move" a horse. We sometimes read, "there is a lot of money for such and such a first timer", this for me is a fallacy. The deception is borne out of focusing on the wrong reasons e.g. the general betting public will normally focus on the dissemination of the betting move from (say) 7/2 into 2/1, as oppose to the volume taken of the horse e.g.
R 10 000/R 2 800 (7/2) and shortens into (say) 5/2. Should another punter take (say)
R 10 000/R 4 000 the horse with shorten again to (approximately) 15/10 as it's a first timer.

Joe Public's focus is on the shortening from 7/2 into 15/10. The public are not privy to the fact that it only took R 6 800, the masses are now taking (in the region of) 18/10 to 12/10 depending on the generosity of your bookmaker, especially if he hasn't laid the 7/2 or 5/2.

I'd love to read other views.

Apart from PERHAPS watching moves on 1st timers from certain stables its an overrated hype.The 'best' horse in a race will win no matter what the odds,if he been backed in or drifted.Checking odds = wasting time.
My personal experience at least.

Bayern makes an important point imo, added to which, if I understand the "process" correctly, there is no way of knowing whether the "claim" was to win or some other bet.

The SA markets are so volatile and seemingly relatively easily manipulated that imo, don't touch a mover unless you originally had some sort of fancy for the horse or, returning to the form, you can see a reason for the horse being backed. You also have to be wary of "false" movers, ones deliberately moved in order to try and get a drift on the one that is really fancied. Historically imo there are periods of time where this is rife.

If you are an international punter it is a little different, as some bookies are still very slow in updating prices. Depending on the price difference between the SA market and an international bookie, it may be worth risking a little at the prices just on the "off-chance". As mentioned on plenty other threads, expect to be restricted or closed sooner or later if going down this route though.

Some interesting thoughts on this link............... :ohmy:


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