Kenilworth, 15/08

R7, Lady Ming should go very close. In her favour she has run to stronger especially now that Acrostar is a non runner.

Sea Glass is the joint 18/10 favourite, however she is a maiden winner and the collateral form hasn't really stood up, 5 runners since and no winners. Whilst she did win by 7.50 lengths, I will stick with the tried and tested, Lady Ming.

R5, a bit odd that three trainers entries make up the 7 horse field, surely the other trainers have horses rated in and around the MR94 mark - guess running 5th and earning a stake cheque is not for them.

I feel Titus is the right one here. Van Niekerk being stable jockey would have opted to ride Ze Kaiser if he felt this one had more of a winning chance than Titus, moreover, Ze Kaiser put up a decent effort over the distance last time out when ridden by Van Niekerk. Three runs back Ze Kaiser ran a very creditable third to Futura, however despite all this, the stable jockey still opts for Titus - I smell a rat.

Good punting.

Evening Rose isn't without hope R8

Race 3 Western Storm with the highest rating and carrying bottom weight, this is surely the right one

Muscatt holds the course record Craig

But can he give Western Storm 10kgs ??

Race 7, very interesting that Justin Snaith had 3 entered so the race would hold up, now with 2 scratched and Karl Neisus knowing the danger Lady Ming well, I make Evoke Emotion the one to beat

@Craig and Colin, don't leave Western Movie out of your play. At the weights, this one has upset material written all over it.

At the weight turn-around, it's hard to understand how Captain Sam can be 18/10 and Western Movie 8.5/1 when they are weighted to finish much, much closer.

Craig, Western Storm, first time open/handicap company and returning from a break, 2/1 a bit skinny for me, so I'll take him on with Carlosthejackal's horse.

being a sprint weight isn't so much a factor

Craig Pienaar wrote: Race 7, very interesting that Justin Snaith had 3 entered so the race would hold up, now with 2 scratched and Karl Neisus knowing the danger Lady Ming well, I make Evoke Emotion the one to beat

It's a stretch at the weights (and maybe the imagination) based on their last run to Casadesus, however I'm prepared to grant you horses don't run on paper, but some stretch nonetheless.

Craig Pienaar wrote: But can he give Western Storm 10kgs ??

Western Storms jockey has had 1 win in over 100 runs....and only 1 win this year!!.. :woohoo:

Western storms weight together with the fact that he may be decent can't be ignored but not sure he is a safe bet. Bayern has a point about Western movie but I still think Muscatt is the one.

Small field with Ze kaiser. For that reason only..going to put castlethorpe to upset.

KEN


Race 1=SEPTIMA good runs good jockey looks to make bold effort


Race 2=SANDTON ROCKER has good inprovment and will run well if jumps always sets the pace big danger BELLA BELLA


Race 3=VILLA DEL LARGO oldest horse in the race looks really well and can pop up PROMICING POLLY is much better then the recent race dont leave out


Race 4=JO'S BOND great form great jockey will be the one to beat


Race 5=ZE KAISER has good form and wont be far off the number 1 drops in class so also has a chance


Race 6=COUNT MY LUCK is a upset horse and is my dark horse has the form to get a good run danger fav


Race 7=hard race go wide i like ACROSTAR


Race 8=GOOD GRACE unlucky last time was looking for a gap and could not get out to have a run bold effort this time out


BEST BET= JO'S BOND
VALUE BETS= SANDTON ROCKER & COUNT MY LUCK