Think this is the right place to put this. A bit worried about the huge drift with our books (was 7/1 last night best price, can now get 16/1) but still pretty keen on it's chances. Haven't had the time to cover the South African stuff myself recently (bar the Durban July) but hopefully will be able to contribute more with that in next couple of weeks.
Lingfield Race 3 - Zarliman
ZARLIMAN was a €16,000 Aga Khan cast-off who is potentially well-handicapped off a mark of 75, and although you have to do a bit of guesswork with this one, he looks the sort to go well now dropped to sprint trips. Generally bred for middle-distances, he disappointed at that trip before being switched to shorter distances towards the end of his four race French career. It looked a solid move, as he ran the best race of his career when 2nd in a 7f Chantily maiden on the polytrack. Travelling well throughout, he moved to the front in fairly easy fashion without his rider needing to get too animated. He was in front within the final furlong but just got headed in the last section of the race by a stronger staying rival. He found plenty for pressure though and just looked to have ran into a better rival. That Chantily race hasn’t worked out badly either, with the other three rivals in the top 4 improving in terms of RPR on their subsequent starts, and it’s fair to say they’d all be rated in the 80′s if they were to come to race in the UK tomorrow.
It could be said that they’ve all improved, while Zarliman has regressed. On the bare form of his UK debut, that could be implied, as he was beaten 13.5 lengths at Kempton just twelve days ago. However, I think everything was wrong then. The mile trip I don’t think is his ideal for a start, then he was held-up in a race where you had to be near the front in order to land any sort of blow, with the added factor of it being his first race since November. Zarliman travelled really well I thought, and looked to be making a challenge on the inside before fading, and I don’t think it was that bad a run given the circumstances, with the beaten distance being heavily exaggerated. I’m expecting much better today. Given the way he travelled last time and at Chantily, 6f won’t be a problem, and I’m quite looking forward to him sprinting as he certainly looks capable of being a force at this grade doing so. He’ll be all the better for the run, should feature in a strongly run race with Putin and Thataboy likely to make this a properly run affair and given the handicapper has quickly dropped him 3lbs, he looks like a fair bet today. If it isn’t today, then he ought to be winning races in the near future but at the prices, he’s worth supporting.
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