3rd run after rest

sporting post does not give this information anymore.
what period actually constitueds a 2 or 3rd run after a rest?

In south Africa the gap between most runners races would be considered a rest in the UK and other racing centres ()

That's just a term dumb presenters / tipsters use to sound knowledgeable.

hermes Wrote:

---

> sporting post does not give this information
> anymore.
> what period actually constitueds a 2 or 3rd run
> after a rest?


I'm also not quite sure what constitutes a rest....but if the horse is generally running once a month then a 2 month layoff may be regarded as a rest....generally I regard 2 months or more as a rest...but each to his own....some trainers do bring their horses back spot on...but you have to try and find the pattern, because most don't...I tend to side with the 2nd run after a rest syndrome....but it's trainer and horse dependant...some horses just tend to run well fresh and then it's all downhill again....Have a look at the horses that have run 20 times or more and look for patterns(it'll be easier to find)....some horses win approximately the same time once a year...similar conditions and good prices normally....they are consistent....almost like your birthday....

hope this helps....

Ive never understood the rest theory

A 1st timer therefore has been on a 2 year rest? But we all know that some 1st timers have been in training for a year and some for 2 months?

hermes Wrote:

---

> sporting post does not give this information
> anymore.
> what period actually constitueds a 2 or 3rd run
> after a rest?

WinningForm does give this information...so check them out too....(tu)

easy Wrote:

---

> Ive never understood the rest theory
>
> A 1st timer therefore has been on a 2 year rest?
> But we all know that some 1st timers have been in
> training for a year and some for 2 months?


I will never understand this as long as I live - I ignore anyone that uses this as a reason not to punt a horse

easy Wrote:

---

> Ive never understood the rest theory
>
> A 1st timer therefore has been on a 2 year rest?
> But we all know that some 1st timers have been in
> training for a year and some for 2 months?


in my little book I have debut runs a reflection of the debutantes true standing.Some factors need to be taken into account and some type are an exception.
It is granted that as the horse progresses into handicaps or graded races the difference in ability etc among the competitors is minimal.
This is why factoring in a rest when making a decision is a must.
Some though run their best races fresh

If you where an athlete in your previous life peaking for certain events you will understand the 3rd run rest 100% provided your conditioner knows what he's doing

A few years ago I decided to do an analysis of this controversial issue....................I did 4 years worth of races and the results patterns were consistent every year and I was happy that doing more years would just be more of the same.
The amusing thing that everybody that has ever want to debate it has had no data at all............ I use my findings and couldn't really care to argue anymore.
Every argument I hear is based on either:
A horse runs 2nd run after a lay off, wins and one section says "see,it makes no difference" or it runs unplaced, and the other side says "see, a horse can't win 2nd run after a lay off"

The only thing I can vouch for,is that both arguments are rubbish and there are some distinct patterns.
Most horses are adversely affected,2nd run after a lay off,but if the horse has more ability than the effect ,it will still win.
(eg.If a horse is 3 lengths better than the field ,and is affected by 2 lengths,it will still win by a length!! )

The one thing that is important is that it is not some kind of "phenomena"..............it is a fitness issue and can be overcome by the necessary activity(equivalent to a run)in training,but is seldom done cos of the special measures to achieve it.Horses seldom work anywhere near full race distance,at race pace.

2 trainers(De Kock and Ramsden) who,for ages pooh-poohed the principle,have both more recently expressed a reservation when asked about the chances of their horses.

In the UK, some race analysts refer to it as the "bounce" factor!

Rob

So basically its sorta hat i am saying, its all about preparation and fitness not about time off.

easy Wrote:

---

> Rob
>
> So basically its sorta hat i am saying, its all
> about preparation and fitness not about time off.


Absolutely- and it is not an exact science ..........merely a probability because not all lay offs are the same..........one horse may be in full work but not able to find a suitable race in the 2 month "rest" horizon, whereas another may have just been out to pasture!