3rd run after rest

saying the same thing I am

interesting thread.....

countless of times i've been beaten by a horse coming from a rest cos i thought it will need it....now i just ignore that altogether

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> saying the same thing I am


Sorry ,Ben,I don't think we are saying the same thing at all.....................it is one thing to know that sometimes something will happen.................it is completely another to have enough data to give a better chance of predicting when!!!

rob faux Wrote:

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> easy Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Rob
> >
> > So basically its sorta hat i am saying, its all
> > about preparation and fitness not about time
> off.
>
>
> Absolutely- and it is not an exact science
> ..........merely a probability because not all lay
> offs are the same..........one horse may be in
> full work but not able to find a suitable race in
> the 2 month "rest" horizon, whereas another may
> have just been out to pasture!


It's the "probability" factor that I am interested in...it's never an exact science but athletes certainly peak for certain events...if Tim Noakes brought science into this then he would definitely look at the "bounce factor" as 1 of the many factors involved

Thanks Rob
but I was saying that my post encompasses what Easy says initially

Loopy Logic Wrote:

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> rob faux Wrote:
>

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>

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> > easy Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > Rob
> > >
> > > So basically its sorta hat i am saying, its
> all
> > > about preparation and fitness not about time
> > off.
> >
> >
> > Absolutely- and it is not an exact science
> > ..........merely a probability because not all
> lay
> > offs are the same..........one horse may be in
> > full work but not able to find a suitable race
> in
> > the 2 month "rest" horizon, whereas another may
> > have just been out to pasture!
>
>
> It's the "probability" factor that I am interested
> in...it's never an exact science but athletes
> certainly peak for certain events...if Tim Noakes
> brought science into this then he would definitely
> look at the "bounce factor" as 1 of the many
> factors involved

I see that you and I agree on quite a lot of the factors that are the difference between profit and loss.........go WITH the probabilities and take the odd exception on the chin!............I think a lot of losses are caused by trying to predict and back the exception at a price that looks big ,but is no value.

sorry that was not meant here

Yep...and for that reason I believe in place betting Rob,

Higher probability, consistent returns...

Today Vaal Race 7 no.6 Blazing Sunset 3rd run after rest.................... won well!!!

Personally don't really pay much attention to this excuse whether good or bad. The trotters and harness horses are known to improve after a spell and the trials give a good picture of how well the horse shoud perform.

Can't see why the thorobred cousins can't do like-wize.:S

I compare the winning strike rate to the percentage of runners who qualify for that race.

For example, the winning strike rate for horses who have won two or more races is 43% is compared to the average percentage of horses per race who have won two or more races, is 37%. The winning strike is covered only 1.1 times (43/37) and in my books this variable is insignificant and thus I ignore the variable for horses who have won twice or more at the same track. (If the winning strike is covered only once, well then, that is really insignificant). Now my stats for "rest" variables:

Running fit: winning strike rate 62% vs the average percentage of fit runners per race of 66%; Strike rate cover is almost 1.0 = no significance!!

Running Fresh (including 1st timers): winning strike rate 26% vs average % of runners per race which are running fresh 21%: Strike cover = 1.3 which has significance!!

2nd run after a rest (the "syndrome")): winning strike rate 20% vs average % of runners per race who are running 2nd run after a rest is 21%; Strike rate cover is once and has no significance!!

3rd run after a rest: winning strike rate 20% vs average % of runners per race who are running 3rd run after a rest is 19%: Strike rate cover is once which bears no siginificance!!

Reference: Winning Form
Most races analysed are plate races above graduation level and features.

Take it, dont take it.

boys is what make racing the great sport it is - who opinion is correct.