Vaal Sand Tuesday 11/6/13

Discuss Tuesdays racing below

Dragon Vein exciting horse

Probably looking at the wrong card again but this is how I see it, probably a n other day donating to horse feed

Rc1 / 12;8;11;10;1;3
Rc2 / 9;2;1;16 ;8;1
Rc3 / 10;3;9;1;6;8
Rc4 / 1;7;11;3;9;10
Rc5 / 7;5;2;6;1;
Rc6 / 5;2;1;7;4
Rc7 / 6;8;4;1;7
Rc8 / 5;2;1;10;4

Going to try swinger first 3 selections and tri box all 5.

Have a good day guys and lassies.

Is it just me or does sugar ray have a strong chance tomorrow?
Also fancy first and 2nd race favourites.

My fancies - Dennis the Menace X Aces High

Speed Ratings for main contenders with previous Vaal Sand form –

Race 1 MJP 1000m
69…Highland Lad 6/1
65…Tiger Territory 2/1
52…Hidden Gun 75/1
??…News Flash 9/2
??…Don Vito 10/1
Highland Lad figures to be a confident selection as one of the floating bankers in quartets. Not much to go on with the rest either breeding, draw or trainers on form.

Race 2 MJP-F 1000m
70…All the Tens 16/10
50…Im no Mickey Mouse 66/1
47…Hillary 66/1
??…Rolling Ruby 4/1
Confident with All the Tens.

Race 3 MDN 1200m
79…Tornado Twister 9/2
76…Dulce Leche 2/1
71…Oklahoma Trippi 7/2
69…Banjo Bay 12/1
65…Rebel Heart 16/1
??…Selazar 6/1
Confident with Dulce Leche although price is skinny. Tornado Twister obvious danger yet poorly drawn, Selazar the well drawn unknown.

Race 4 MR80 1200m
105…Dennis the Menace 5/2
102…Bareback 16/1
..96…Hallowed 8/1
..94…Takaamul 11/2
..90…Authenticated 12/1
Dennis the Menace certainly on a roll and hard to oppose here. Bareback ran a career best lto. Expecting Takaamul and Hallowed to place…nothing else appeals.

Race 5 MR90 1800m
106…Dragon Vein 22/10
106…Henry Higgins 28/10
105…Masai Warrior 9/2
102…Spectroscope 7/1
100…Boy Oh Boy 20/1
..99…Master Entertainer 14/1
A closely rated contest…very open.

Race 6 MR70 1800m
90…Sugar Ray 7/2
85…Shadow Mode 7/2
85…Kudos 8/1
83…Blue Concorde 5/1
76…Cockney Tiger 2/1
75…Tizasmartdollar 33/1
Sugar Ray has been consistent on sand and figures the one to beat yet does not inspire confidence. Blue Concorde and Kudos have the ‘best history’ and anything close to those runs would see them win easily here. Fair performance by Shadow Mode lto yet does not seem that genuine whilst ‘not sold’ on Cockney Tiger’s winning sand debut.

Race 7 MR72 1600m
96…McAllistor 5/1
95…Caribbean Coast 12/1
94…Disco Boy 20/1
91…Aces High 12/10
86…King Scott 8/1
84…Alwaysawinner 12/1
Another open event where McAllistor appeals most…despite the odd quirky run.
However, upset very possible.

Race 8 PIN STAKES 1000m
112…Across the Ice 3/1
110…Furious Dancer 12/1
108…Benbow 16/1
108…Solarium 4/1
106…Second Tycoon 5/1
100…Hang Fire 16/1
100…Funny Glory 14/1
Prepared to forgive Across the Ice’s last run yet still not that comfortable with him over the 1000m. Furious Dancer is an old favourite (sentimental choice).

Looks a tough card again, there shall be no apologies if I draw a blank... again!

R1 Not the best looking contest in the world. Cosmic Tom, Don Vito, News Flash and Sacred Ground are all possibles if taking to the surface. Of them, I would probably favour the latter simply on trainer form but none of them stand out and DV does represent STJ/Lerena. Tiger Territory could be the right one based on his run behind Velvet Verona and with natural improvement should again finish ahead of the hardly spectacular Highland Lad, who now gets PS aboard. Brad's Surge may improve on his only sand run but nothing to indicate that it will be hugely significant if so. Reluctant selection... Tiger Territory x Highland Lad x Sacred Ground

R2 All The Tens ran a sound second last time out on sand debut over c and d and must have a decent chance of going one better, holding most of those with experience on that run. There are a couple who on breeding may take to the surface, Rolling Ruby being the most likely imo. Soft Sand should also be considered at a bigger price and at a huge price there is a chance Wind-Up Bird and, more particularly, Princess Faull might show big improvement. A lot of guesswork though and imo there is no safe bet. Reluctant selection... All The Tens x Rolling Ruby x Soft Sand

R3 Another poor contest. Oklahoma Trippi stumbled on sand debut and still managed to run a creditable second, with a drop back to sprinting he should not be discounted. Rapid Beat has shown some form on the surface and gets a 4kg claim but is drawn wide, though there were signs some horses were running on nicely from wide positions last week. Over 1000 though he was 2l behind Tornado Twister. The latter has been consistent, he is 4/5 for top 3 finishes on the course one of which was a silver at c and d. He normally falls a few lengths short but has a chance here, 3rd run after a rest. Selazar makes his sand debut and representing a GVZ/Striker combination must be respected dropping back to sprints. Tobeturf Terror was drawn widest of all on his only sand run and has had blinkers since, no reason to suspect big improvement but it might happen. The win vote though goes to Dulce Leche. Returms from a rest but finished 4.5ls ahead of TT over 1450 last time out with Auriferous much further back. From a good draw with MVR up may prove good enough. That said, in his penultimate effort he did finish behind Auriferous over c and d and when Zaki and Chambers combine they are over 30% win and 60% place. Reluctant selection... Dulce Leche x Tornado Twister x Oklahoma Trippi

R4 Chill Factor, only sand run came off a rest and with appie up taking some weight off could well improve with the de Kock stable in very good form of late. Hallowed looks well held by Dennis The Menace but has run better than that on the sand and has a chance of surprising. Authenticated has a good draw and a low weight and if not suffering from second run after a rest should be thereabouts. He has a 10kgs pull with Bareback for a 4l beating. The latter surprised last time and could go in again but is not drawn well and it would be no surprise to me if he struggles to repeat. Takaamul was returning from a rest and beaten 4.5l by Bareback. He is 6kgs better off and has a much better draw and is another entitled to be thereabouts if not suffering second run after a rest issues. Of the newcomers to the surface, as always any could win but my preference would be for Co-Pilot. My vote though goes to DTM to complete the hat-trick. Very good recent form, Striker up again and has poll position. The only warning is that he was 5ls behind Hallowed on the run behind Soldiersailor back in March. He has improved under Striker since though and as mentioned earlier, holds Hallowed on their last meeting. Selection... Dennis The Menace x Takaamul x Authenticated

R5 Dragon Vein represents Azzie/Fradd who have come into some very good form and goes for a 4-timer to extend her unbeaten streak. Could easily win again but at the prices with a big weight, up against the boys and some very decent sand performers, I'll oppose. Stablemate Masai Warrior also shoulders a big weight but has two wins in a 5/6 top 3 record over c and d, rarely runs a bad race and very likely to be thereabouts at the finish again. The weight though may be the telling factor here, I prefer Henry Higgins but the form-lines are a little confusing. Spectroscope was beaten 3.75l and 3.25l respectively by HH and Hunter Valley over c and d back in March, but Spectro (2kgs worse off with HV) then turned the table on HV in no uncertain terms, over 1600, with a 4.35l win. Importantly that day Striker rode Spectro and though he is now off, the appie means there is no change at the weights and I think Spectro will beat HV again. HH's win in March was done so a little cosily and with Striker against an appie, a better draw this time, and now being 1.5kgs better off with Spectro, I think HH the more likely. Complicated! have a look for yourselves and see what you think, lol A very tough race but I'll try... Henry Higgins x Spectroscope x Masai Warrior

R6 Cockney Tiger comes out of the maidens following his sand debut win, Striker retains the ride, blinkers on and trainer going well so must have a good chance in what does not appear the strongest of fields. That said, the maiden field he beat did not look the strongest either and he is a short price here. Blue Concorde improved last time out after a poor run of form but more needed to win here imo, Kudos similar. Shadow Mode finished ahead of both and though a little worse off with both at the weights, gets the better pull with the draws. Appie AA retains the ride and had a very good day at Bingo. Sugar Ray has possibly improved recently and if he has a good day he has a chance, on the run behind Henry Higgins he would appear to hold Shadow Mode comfortably. Tizasmartdollar has a light weight but has been a little disappointing since her maiden win and may struggle against the boys. Mogok offspring Beat The Odds could be a surprise package and in this field it may be worth taking a chance that this is a Mogok that takes a strong liking to the surface, if he does then he must have a chance. Reluctant and hopeful selection... Beat The Odds x Cockney Tiger x Sugar Ray

R7 Its not getting any easier! McAllistor appears infuriatingly inconsistent but has won the last two times with Juglall aboard, if he can get the horse moving again then must have a decent chance, has won 3/7 over c and d and the fact there are no places anywhere in sight does imply that if he is in the mood, its all or nothing! Caribbean Coast has only one silver from 6 course visits and with a big weight I'll pass. Matthew Ethan, good trainer and jockey form and if he takes to the surface will be in with a shout. Disco Boy won well on sand debut over 1450 but was well beaten last time out, that was after a long rest though and has faded in many recent runs over 1450 and one over 1600. If coming on for the run then a chance at a big price but one I will watch this time. Stablemate Aces High has been running consistently well and that culminated with winning on his sand debut over this distance and does look the more likely of the two, Fradd retains the ride and a decent draw. Alwaysawinner does not appeal on first glance but has a light weight, poll position and has 2 wins in a 4/5 top 3 finish record over c and d. Returning to the distance, 1200 last time out, might see considerable improvement and one not to be overlooked. King Scott has had two fair runs on the course and may get closer this time. Reluctant selection... McAllistor x Alwaysawinner x Aces High

R8 Tired and not going to discuss in detail... in truth, partly because I have only had a quick look!! Across the Ice is the obvious one with good c and d records and would appear to hold many of these. Excuses with the distance last time and returning to sprints might be hard to beat. That said, although ATI has beaten him over both 1000 and 1200, Furious Dancer is best over 1000 and has won 4/6 c and d runs. When ATI beat him 6 lengths he was returning from a 20 week break and this is now third run after that rest. Solarium is the other one I like, again seemingly better over 1000 with 3 wins in 4 c and d runs. Shine Tiger I might have risked if the price were much bigger and the one I give an outside chance at a price is Commissionerstreet, another who I think will be better suited by a return to 1000. Selection... Across The Ice x Solarium x Furious Dancer

Thanks THH, very happy to see you bolstering confidence on a few and having the same reservations on a few (tu)

Winning Form & Magic Tips Best Bets - Vaal Sand

Go look at Spike Lerena's record with first time sand horses, they tend to take to the surface like a duck to water... Beat The Odds first time on the sand @ 16-1 worth an eachway...
Bankers today are Dennis the Menace and Aces High.

gregbucks Wrote:

---

> Go look at Spike Lerena's record with first time
> sand horses, they tend to take to the surface like
> a duck to water... Beat The Odds first time on the
> sand @ 16-1 worth an eachway...
> Bankers today are Dennis the Menace and Aces High.

Where would you look for that info Greg?

gregbucks Wrote:

---

> Go look at Spike Lerena's record with first time
> sand horses, they tend to take to the surface like
> a duck to water... Beat The Odds first time on the
> sand @ 16-1 worth an eachway...
> Bankers today are Dennis the Menace and Aces High.


Greg could be a very good spot on Beat The Odds, not the strongest of fields and if taking to the surface could make them run. (tu)

Race 5 looks a very interesting race. Dragon Vein will have to be very special as a 3 year filly to give quality sand 4 and 5 year old geldings 5kg's plus over 1800 meters, not for me but if she does win then great as we will have another top class sand horse. I am firmly in the camp of Henry Higgins as Striker get on very well with him and he rode Spectroscope last time out. I make it between these two and will be backing Henry Higgins but taking covering swingers and exacta boxes with Spectroscope.

In Race 6 I am waiting to see from Oklahoma Trippi in the 3rd race how strong the Cockney Tiger form is and I feel it is not that strong. I also think it is a big ask for him to give Sugar Ray 5kg's considering his adjusted time over his last 2 starts over 1800 meters is quicker than Cockney Tiger's over 1600 meters. I feel the 7/2 on Sugar Ray also represents very good value with Greg's Beat The Odds being the surprise package.

In Race 7 McAllistor is the key, the only thing consistant about him is his inconsistancy. That being said Juglall seems to get on well with him winning on him the last 2 occations he has ridden him. If he reproduces his best form he will go on to win, if not he will most likely miss the placings as is seems he is only either good or bad. I would rather take the 5/1 available on McAllister than the 13/10 on Aces High.

I will be playing an EW Patent on Henry Higgins, Sugar Ray and McAllistor but will also take an EW bet on Beat the Odds.