Durban July - 2011

The early betting is out and a few of the contenders have run. This thread is specifically designed for punters that like to have an early go on long shots or on the shorter priced horses so they can make a book.

Let's start posting what we fancy in the favored betting market as well as 1 long shot.........................

My favorite pick: Run for It
Longshot: Super Storm

Let's have some fun and see who gets closest......you can of course change your picks as you go along, whatever you need to do to get to your pick come the first week in July

Lion in Winter...

Don`t forget Past Master

At the moment i would like to get on mystic moon a place on hollywood as the Mdk runners wont count .

i mean mdk usually does well in the race and lets say for eg that he runs a place with one or by chance 2 of his runners . Well then it would be like taking a bet to run in the first five or six places respectively , which could be value at the end of it all !

I believe if Dancewiththedevil can get to the front they won't catch him .

hibernia
Re: July First Entries
April 19, 2011 08:11AM Admin
Registered: 4 years ago
Posts: 13,274
2011 Vodacom July EXPECTED WEIGHTS from the sportingpost

Horse MR wfa mass final

Big City Life 5c 116 60 60 0
Bouquet-Garni 5c 96 50 53 -3
Bravura 4c 110 57 57 0
Brown Penny 4c 88 46 53 -7
Bulsara 4c 107 55.5 55.5 0
Cask 4c 100 52 53 -1
Castlethorpe 3c 97 2 48.5 53 -4.5
Chindit 4c 90 47 53 -6
Dancewiththedevil 4f 111 57.5 57.5 0
Emerald Cove 3f 106 2 53 53 0
English Garden 3c 108 2 54 54 0
Extra Cover 4c 84 44 53 -9
Fort Vogue 5c 104 54 54 0
Galileo's Destiny 3c 103 2 51.5 53 -1.5
Galileo's Galaxy 4c 104 54 54 0
Goat 5f 101 52.5 52.5 0
Gold Onyx 3c 96 2 50 53 -3
Golden Chariot 6c 98 51 53 -2
Grey Cossack 4c 90 47 53 -6
Hammie's Boy 4c 96 50 53 -3
Happy Landing 4c 96 50 53 -3
Ice Axe 3c 93 2 46.5 53 -6.5
Il Saggiatore 3c 102 2 51 53 -2
In Writing 5c 103 53.5 53.5 0
Jet Jamboree 3c 88 2 44 53 -9
Lion In Winter 4c 108 56 56 0
M'Lords Throat 3c 102 2 51 53 -2
Mahogany 4c 86 45 53 -8
Masai Warrior 3c 84 2 42 53 -11
Mystic Moon 3f 103 2 51.5 52 -0.5
Past Master 4c 115 59.5 59.5 0
Pierre Jourdan 4c 110 57 57 0
Power Park 5c 95 49.5 53 -3.5
Regal Ransom 5c 106 55 55 0
Roman Wall 3c 98 2 49 53 -4
Royal Arrow 4c 87 45.5 53 -7.5
Royal Zulu Warrior 4c 92 48 53 -5
Run For It 3c 111 2 55.5 55.5 0
Solo Traveller 3c 108 2 54 54 0
Super Storm 4c 99 51.5 53 -1.5
The Apache 3c 107 2 53.5 53.5 0
We Three 4f 102 53 53 0
Zorba's Tale 6c 104 54 54 0

I don't rate this years crop of 3 years old colts and it seems there is a serious shortage of talent amongst the older brigade so I think it could be up to the 2 fillies to bring home the bacon.

M'Lords Throat could offer some long shot value but if Igugu holds her form she should prove a tough nut to crack. However 4-1 is still very short with such a long time to go.

Super Storm could start today and wouldn't win and Past Master and Lion in Winter will not stay a true run 2200.

Struggling to find much value in the betting at this stage.

Think you might come to regret those words Saksy....
Super Storm is by Rakeen and they only come to the form at 5......He is making serious improvement and he did not run a bad race in the Met coming from way back off a slow run race.

Past Master must prove to me he gets a fast run 1 1/4 miles, even at Greyville where milers can win the July.

For me Lion in winter has no chance and I reserve my rights to comment on the fillies. They may be real good but they need to be tested against the colts over this type of distance first.

Punter, Dancewiththedevil is a filly and I find it hard to fathom that she may ever be at the front from the off in any race she runs in?

Nothing really jumps out at me - Cask could be some each way value at the weights; Dancewiththedevil (why would she be in front, Punter?) has a lot against her - she is doubtful over the trip, her style of running will not suit Greyville and she has been set a lot of 'pudding' to carry imo

I have a preference for one of Mike Bass's runners to win it this year. English Garden, Castlethorpe or Super Storm. Will follow their prep runs with interest. I have a sneaky suspicion that if Castlethorpe(gelded) continues improving, he may be the right one.

MDK will win the July...with which one is another story!

In Writing will offer some value i think.

Question......will we see Bravura back to best ever? Some cracking earlier runs, but showed nothing since his break

If Dancewiththedevil stays the 2000m at Turffontein, at the end of the month, then she'll surely stay the July distance, at Greyville. Weight may then become an issue, but I don't think the Greyville track will be a problem. I have seldom seen a horse with such acceleration; she sweeps past the opposition in a matter of strides, once given her head. Freaky stuff.