Journalist: David Thiselton – Gold Circle Publishing
The Grade 1 Bloodstock SA Cape Guineas to be run on Saturday features Mike de Kock’s raiders versus the best the Cape has to offer and it could well unearth another great horse, as it has often done in the past.
The Cape Guineas has been won by some of the best horses South Africa has ever produced including Horse Chestnut, Jay Peg, Jet Master, Bold Tropic, Politician, Gatecrasher, Jamaican Music, Sentinel, Hawaii and Colorado King as well as the great fillies Empress Club and Renounce.
Two of our greatest, Sea Cottage and Dynasty, were beaten in the Cape Guineas at odds of 3-10 and 1-5 respectively.
In the last ten runnings three horses either imported or Sired North of the Line (SNL) have won the Cape Guineas and all three of them were trained by Dean Kannemeyer.
These included the last two winners, Noordhoek Flyer(SNL) and Le Drakkar (Aus), as well as the Brazilian-bred winner of the January 2006 race, Express Way.
Kannemeyer also trained Rabiya, who won the race in January 2005.
Kannemeyer does not have a runner this year, but there are two imported horses running, the Joey Ramsden-trained Il Saggiatore and the Mike Bass-trained Castlethorpe.
Il Saggiatore is unbeaten in three starts and was extremely impressive in his last start, a competitive Allowance Plate over 1400m in very soft conditions.
He was caught behind a wall of horses but when finally finding a gap he catapulted through and won by one length from the well regarded English Garden and the Guineas contender the Vaughan Marshall-trained Lucky Moon, with whom he will now be 2kg better off.
Castlethorpe is a big strong horse, who is likely improving but he looks held by his stablemate What A Winter.
Looking at the South African-breds who have won in the last 10 runnings i.e. Pointing North (Joshua Dancer), Jay Peg (Camden Park), Rabiya (Jallad), Domino Man (Dominion Royale), Flight Alert (National Assembly), Ethno Centric (Centenary) and Captain Al (Al Mufti) most of them are by fashionable sires, with the exception of Ethno Centric.
The last ten runnings has seen three raiders winning, the Mike de Kock-trained Flight Alert in January 2002, the de Kock-trained Domino Man in January 2003 and the Robbie Sage-trained Pointing North in January 2008.
De Kock is the only raiding trainer this year and has a chance of repeating those two wins with either Perana or Kavanagh, but it should be born in mind that many strongly fancied Gauteng raiders have failed in this race in the last ten runnings.
In 2000, the David Ferraris-trained Glamour Boy and the de Kock-trained Badger’s Coast started joint 7-2 favourites and finished second and seventh respectively.
Ferraris saddled the favourite the following year, Celtic Grove, and he was touched off a whisker by Ethno Centric.
In January 2004 the Sean Tarry-trained Fork Lightening started 5-2 favourite and was beaten a head by Rabiya. An ensuing objection was overruled.
Tarry saddled the joint 18-10 favourite, Fort Beluga, the following year but he reared twice as the gates were opened and lost many lengths.
Some had begun calling the Cape Guineas the graveyard of Gauteng horses by this stage and in Fort Beluga’s case this was very apt as he was never the same horse after that incident.
The next year, in January 2007, the Weiho Marwing-trained Divine Jury started favourite, whilst de Kock’s Emperor Napoleon was also fancied, but they were beaten into fourth and second-places respectively.
In December 2008, the de Kock-trained Meet At Malamala started 5-2 favourite but could only finish fourth, while last year the Charles Laird-trained 11-10 favourite Galileo’s Galaxy was beaten into second.
Three favourites have won the last 10 runnings, Flight Alert (5-10), Express Way (18-10) and Pointing North (5-2).
Every other winner has been in single figures i.e. Captain Al (6-1), Ethno Centric (7-1), Domino Man (5-1), Rabiya (5-1), Jay Peg (22-10), Le Drakkar (5-1) and Noordhoek Flyer (9-2).
The two winning trainers in the last ten years who can be considered to have had smaller yards are Des McLachlan (Ethno Centric) and Robbie Sage (Pointing North), while Captain Al’s trainer, Vaughan Marshall, and Jay Peg’s trainer, Basil Marcus, could probably be considered to have had medium-sized yards.
The other six winners were from the big yards of either Kannemeyer or de Kock.
These statistics provide food for thought in selecting a winner.
The horses that are single figure odds for this year’s race are all from big yards, the Bass-trained What A Winter (16-10), the de Kock pair Perana (9-2) and Kavanagh (5-1) and the Justin Snaith-trained Solo Traveller (6-1).
Two of them, What A Winter and Solo Traveller, are by former Champion Sire Western Winter.
Kavanagh is by Tiger Ridge, who has made a good start to his stud career, while Perana is by Rock Of Gibralter, whose progeny have a good record in South Africa.
However, neither Bass nor Snaith have ever won the Cape Guineas.
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