Cape Guineas - What A winter

In my opinion they all have to beat Kavanagh in this race , with Il Saggiatore and Green Keeper on the chase...

So you can`t have WAW Kenizza?

Jack Dash Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>
> > Go to agree - on their last run, it makes no
> sense
> > that WaW is rated 8 points better than Top
> Seller
>
> Of course it does. WAW earned his rating in the
> Sophomore (1200m) by beating Darcy Arcy (89) , and
> Knock Em Out (85) by [4.5Kgs and 8 lengths].
> Top Seller earned his rating by splitting Solo
> Traveller (98) and WAW (109).
>
> The only problem is WAW hasn't run anything like
> 109 other than that 1200m.
>
> What is really interesting is how Perana is rated
> so low


Jack apparently they wanted to make Perana a 110 after beating Mother Russia but MDK opposed it....not sure if you heard that interview.

hibernia Wrote:

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> So you can`t have WAW Kenizza?


no hibernia, i rather take the 5/1 on offer for Kavanagh very generous imo and his last two runs over this distance are more impressive to me . i'm also convinced that Il Saggiatore will run a better race than WaW

Kenzia ,

spot on Mdk elected not to take the full penalty of 110 !

I fancy Perana to go close and imo Green Keeper is way overpriced in the betting and i dont think Andy Fortune's gonna sit there setting up the race for something else .Green keepers last run over a mile in open company was very good imo , a winner has come out of the race and the time on the day was good ! Eachway value at the price !

antsinner Wrote:

---

> Kenzia ,
>
> spot on Mdk elected not to take the full penalty
> of 110 !
>
> I fancy Perana to go close and imo Green Keeper is
> way overpriced in the betting and i dont think
> Andy Fortune's gonna sit there setting up the race
> for something else .Green keepers last run over a
> mile in open company was very good imo , a winner
> has come out of the race and the time on the day
> was good ! Eachway value at the price !


antsinner i fully agree with you on GK, the price is crazy

Ok so here is my 17 cents worth

I feel that WaW was flattered by the result of his last race as the pace was very pedestrian and he was able to sprint right past them. Also at the weights and on the old course he had to have a big chance. Not so sure he will get the race to suit him this time. Having said that if he settles he should be right there.

For me the horse to beat is Solo Traveler. He is better off at the weights with WaW but more importantly if there is a solid pace then Solo Traveler will be the main recipient. Also the Selangor was not run to suit Solo. He was too handy off a slow pace and got hampered.

He now gets a plum draw, hopefully this grade 1 will be run at a decent gallop and the best horse on the day wins?

Once again I don't fancy Perana at all. That Victory Moon win was a complete anomaly. I can't explain it nor am I going to try but I just don't feel he is quite as good (yet) as that race makes him out to be.

Kavanagh will be hard pressed to win imo, but stranger things have happened right?

I just hope they go a decent clip and the pace is strong and true! In that case my money will be with Solo Traveler and Bernard to win the Guineas.

Hope you guys enjoy the race. I won't be watching the race as the wife and I will be driving to Portland, Oregon for Christmas!

what a winter!!! no doubt in my mind

Jack Dash Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>
> > Go to agree - on their last run, it makes no
> sense
> > that WaW is rated 8 points better than Top
> Seller
>
> Of course it does. WAW earned his rating in the
> Sophomore (1200m) by beating Darcy Arcy (89) , and
> Knock Em Out (85) by [4.5Kgs and 8 lengths].
> Top Seller earned his rating by splitting Solo
> Traveller (98) and WAW (109).
>
> The only problem is WAW hasn't run anything like
> 109 other than that 1200m.
>
> What is really interesting is how Perana is rated
> so low


Thanks for the explanation, JD; however I did say 'on their last run'

the jockey arrangements on de kocks horses confuse me...shea off his regular ride and delpech has no ride...would be nice to get a comment from the yard

WaW has not run to more than a MR of 100 around the turn so far,on my calculations!
Lots of questions will be answered on Sat.

pirates Wrote:

---

> the jockey arrangements on de kocks horses confuse
> me...shea off his regular ride and delpech has no
> ride...would be nice to get a comment from the
> yard


Cos Delpech gonna ride a great treble for Mr Ferraris at Turffies (if they race) ... get on early <