Scotia on the July (bucket list)

Good morning all and hope you are geared up for a great July...

I was looking at the bucket list with Mrs S and the bank manager and it would appear Mauritius, the Arc and the Melbourne cup are on the back burner. The July would be a more sensible option as we don't have that many more shopping days to xmas. Spare 6 minutes and give this link some thought. If you are around 20 ish this will mean nothing, if you are around 40 ish it may touch a nerve, if you are around 60 ish you are more than likely in the ball park and need a break however, if skydiving is over the top? Then the July must also be the more sensible option.

Live Like You Were Dying - The Bucket List

You cant help get involved with the hype around the July, the way that its marketed, the build up, the latest from the trainers etc, etc. well done to the guys and girls at Gold Circle and a special thanks to Gill Simpkins and look forward to a "Blooming" good day!


We, Mrs S and I, are going to take in a long weekend and will be at the Sibaya casino comedy night for a good cause (N.R.F.T.) on Thursday with the Fouries..... and carry on through till Monday on what should be one of the social events of the year. In addition a few lads in the box at the big T are also keeping the party atmosphere.

We will be having a July Bookies competition with great prizes so register on ABC ............and win big on July day watch this space..........

As far as the race and supporting races will need some expert advice so please post your thoughts and fancies on the July thread...

I am sure the euphoria with the World Cup and Madibas birthday is still fresh in the minds of many South Africans and we can hope for this positive vibe to generate more tourism and help alleviate much of the poverty also well done to a great performance from Louis Oosthuizen in the Open.



"is he related to Morgan Freeman?"

As far as gambling options this weekend, we have plenty and lets hope we can gather a decent kitty for next weeks July.

Racing on the local front we have Clan Classique and Slumdog Oscar both on final written warnings making public appearances in PE and hope for the best.
At the big T on Sat could also be farewell to Fair Brutus plus we wish Mans Mood all the best on the come back trail and will also be keeping an eye on Va Va Voom for Sunday at Scottsville.


Harbinger fancied to upset Workforce

Racing overseas and we have the King George and Queen Elizabeth stakes from Ascot on Sat and will Workforce do what he did in the Derby and run them off there feet at evens with Ryan Moore on board or will Harbinger put up a fight and not forgetting the ever consistent and money horse Youmzain in what should be a cracker.
Next week its Glorious Goodwood for the Sussex Stakes on Wed the 28th of July where Canford Hills only has to show up to lift the money?
As far as the ARC (yes the one I will miss) on Oct 3rd Workforce still tops the boards at 4/1 and Fame and Glory 5/1, if you do fancy Workforce to destroy the field on Sat. suggest you grab a bit 4/1.

Rugby not sure if I am allowed to post but why do South Africans leave the pub when the Boks get beat and stay when they win have we never heard of drowning your sorrows, if you were born is Scotland you easily adapt to this mind set. I guess Sat game could be a very close match and I will be playing the draw and that should confuse the lads in the Afrikaans pub.

Scotsman won`t spill a drop

Both AP McCoy and Phil Taylor have shortened for the BBC trophy and have not seen any local betting for pop idols but heard a lad called Elvis Blue singing a Dylan song suggest an early bet.

Have a great weekend and try and find these doubles going into the July

Good punting and may your God be with you

scotia.

Starting to think Harbinger could end up being a superstar,His Royal Ascot victory was superb!

Yes Bob should be a great contest, Harbinger going for a 4 timer and remember Workforce is a 2 time winner from 3 and was beaten by Cape Blanco. It all revolves around the strength of the Derby form was it a freak result? it was run in a fast time but felt it was a weak field with St Nicholas Abbey being scratched.
I am going to trust "Ryan Moore" that he has chosen the right one.(tu)

Scotia i see you are following the bucket list,look like you were dying,to the t.Good man.

Canford should now be PTP

Hannon: Dick Turpin likely to miss Sussex

DICK TURPIN, general 4-1 third favourite for the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood on Wednesday, is a very unlikely runner, according to trainer Richard Hannon.

The Prix Jean Prat winner has had a busy first halfof the season, and Hannon suggested that with the ground going against the talented son of Arakan, a mid-season break may "do him good".


He told his website on Sunday: "Dick Turpin is in great form, but it looks like being too firm for him down there.

"Despite 8mm of rain at Goodwood on Thursday, they tell me that the GoingStick reading was 9.2 on the round course the following day, and the ground can only have got faster since then.

"They will no doubt try and put some more water on, but the forecast is for it to be hot and humid on Tuesday, and I suspect that the ground will be against us."

Hannon's number one hope for the Sussex is Canford Cliffs, whose odds are likely to contract from the 8-11 available with Blue Square following Sunday's news.

The trainer continued: "I was never that keen for him to take on Canford Cliffs again anyway, but I have spoken to Dick Turpin's owner, John Manley, and he is quite happy to give Goodwood a miss, so, in all probability, we will opt out when the final declarations are made tomorrow.

"Dick Turpin has had a busy first half of the season, what with the Greenham, the English and French Guineas, the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot and then France, so it will do him good to have a break, and there are plenty of nice races for him later on."

Moore booked to ride Rip Van Winkle in Sussex

RYAN MOORE has been handed the plum ride on Rip Van Winkle in Wednesday's Sussex Stakes, for which eight horses have been declared.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien and the four-year-old's Coolmore owners have selected Moore following the announcement by trainer Richard Hannon that the champion jockey's intended mount Dick Turpin would not run.

Rip Van Winkle, 9-4 second favourite to the Hannon-trained Canford Cliffs in the Glorious Goodwood highlight, needed a replacement jockey following the suspension of Johnny Murtagh. Last year's winner will be joined in the contest by stablemates Beethoven and Encompassing.

Canford Cliffs, 4-6 favourite following runaway wins in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes, is one of five British runners, the others being Dream Eater, Premio Loco, Mac Love and Beacon Lodge.

hibernia Wrote:

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> Starting to think Harbinger could end up being a
> superstar,His Royal Ascot victory was superb!


Knew i had wrote this somewhere,hearing Timeform have rated him 143? a bit of a over rating i think but one of the highest rated horse of all time,higher than Mill Reef and the likes...

I would be very weary of backing Harbinger for the ARC. I think it will be super difficult for him to reproduce that level of a run in France, or anywhere for that matter.

Tread weary my friends, there is NO value in his current price!

Harbinger put up a scintillating display to win the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes by 11 lengths at Ascot over the weekend to earn a Timeform rating of 140. One of the handicappers behind that rating, David Johnson explains the process of how that figure was reached.

"A 140 rating puts Harbinger in the top dozen performers that Timeform has rated, alongside Dancing Brave, Shergar, Vaguely Noble and Sea The Stars, and behind only Sea-Bird (145), Brigadier Gerard and Tudor Minstrel (144), Abernant, Ribot and Windy City(142) and Mill Reef (141)"

As much as many have tried, there is no denying that Harbinger's 11-length win in Saturday's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Betfair) marks him down as an outstanding colt. Rated 131+ prior to Saturday, his revised rating stands at 140, marking him out by far the best horse in the world currently in training, 6 lb ahead of Rip Van Winkle (134), whose rating comes from his 2009 form.

Timeform fully recognises the historical significance placed on their ratings within the industry, and a rating of 140 certainly wasn't arrived at lightly and without due diligence. We continue to hear of 'yardsticks' when people are discussing handicap ratings but, assigning a horse as having run its race and basing the entire assessment of the race on that premise, isn't the way we handicap races at Timeform. References like 'Youmzain is just about as solid a yardstick as can be found' is surely bogus, as even that horse's record in just the King George - beaten four lengths by Dylan Thomas in 2007, nine and a half lengths by Duke of Marmalade in 2008 and now fourteen and a quarter lengths by Harbinger - will testify.

Rather than try to guess which of Harbinger's rivals 'ran their race' or is 'the one to rate the race around', the first thing we do is produce a 'standard' for the race that objectively takes into account the difference at the weights of the runners and makes an adjustment for the likely strength of the form through the field size. The standard for this year's King George compared to the last 5 runnings of the race is 138/135/138/140/138 (most recent race first).

However, it could be argued that this year's King George was rather different in make up to those of recent seasons as it is the first year since Alamshar won in 2003 that there has been a meaningful representation from the classic crop. A standard compared to the years of 2004 to 2000 would read 138/140/140/139/143. Either way, whether looking at the race through a five-year or ten-year perspective, a rating of 140 for Harbinger isn't hard to justify.

Race standards are an excellent guide to rating horses with a limited amount of form to go on, but races like the King George are contested by horses we know quite a bit about, and we can use their previous form to calculate a different standard for the race (more on this can be read about in greater detail here). Using this methodology to rate the King George would suggest a rating of 142 for Harbinger.

The third key aspect we have for helping us to compile as accurate a rating as possible for any individual race is the overall race time. Form is probably a more key component than time in the ratings that are printed in our racecards and Black Books these days, but the time of a race is still very important in giving support to how solid a form rating is. You'd be far happier to expect a horse that finished fifth in a Lingfield maiden with a form rating of 72 and time figure of 70 to be able to reproduce that form rating than a horse with a similar form rating but a time figure of just 27. The timefigure for Harbinger returned at 'only' 135, is still one of the best over the last 20 years, and it is because the timefigure is unable to fully back up the form rating that we are happier to rate Harbinger 140 for the time being rather 142.

Using the overall race time in isolation though sometimes has its flaws and it is a pity that a flirtation with sectional times being produced and placed in the public domain has ultimately come to nothing in British racing. However, that doesn't mean that you can't produce your own and I am grateful to Simon Rowlands for sharing these. An analysis of the time recorded for the last 3f of each contender compared to the overall race time they recorded suggests that Harbinger was the only runner in the King George to run evenly.

Expressing the horses' finishing speeds as a percentage of their average overall speeds comes up with figures of: Harbinger 99.7%; Cape Blanco 95.5%; Youmzain 95.4%; Daryakana 95.4%; Workforce 93.7%; and Confront 91.4%, where a figure of around 100% would be optimum. This seems to confirm that the overall margin of victory was exaggerated somewhat by the beaten rivals running an uneven pace.

Poundage allowances for margins beaten need to be sensitive to the conditions under which they occur, and the pounds-per-length we used on Saturday - on good to firm ground and with the horses running at fast speeds - was greater than would usually be the case at a mile and a half. However, the evidence of the sectionals is that the beaten horses need to be rated a minimum of 5 lb better than the result. In practice, this is why Harbinger's master rating is 140, having recorded a performance figure of 140 in the race, Cape Blanco is 125/120 and the rest are further below form than simply allowed for by their closing sectionals, with Youmzain 123/113 and Daryakana 119/110.

In terms of a historical significance, a 140 rating puts Harbinger in the top dozen performers that Timeform has rated, alongside Dancing Brave, Shergar, Vaguely Noble and Sea The Stars, and behind only Sea-Bird(145), Brigadier Gerard and Tudor Minstrel(144), Abernant, Ribot and Windy City(142) and Mill Reef(141). Here's hoping he stays fit and well, as he has the form to carry all before him at middle distances for the rest of the year.

Timeform