Last chance for a Xmas strike! by Leon Setaro

Vodacom view-cam overlooking Durban this morning

With Xmas a mere two days away, this is the last chance for a KZN strike and in race 4 it's No.6 Alif (5/1 opening price) that gets 'hope duty' to carry the can. His last run blew my opportunity of making a life changing sum of money and it truly was a dismal showing to match the 'what could've been' occasion. He does sport an excuse however because he ran into the back of the horse in front of him shortly before turning home and within a matter of strides lost the plot completely. That run has to be ignored which takes us back to his penultimate start where he put in a supremely eye catching show, the details of which were covered in depth recently in this column. He's now back to Greyville over a similar trip, in similar conditions and if he can repeat that penultimate effort, then he should win this. Unfortunately this field is no walk in the park and there's a number with form promising further improvement. Add to the mix that there's no guarantee of fitness from any of the runners because the training tracks are near unusable and the signs are all there - tread with caution!

Mike Miller has entered a strong hand in the form of favourite No.8 Invume at 3/1, backed up by No.1 Odessey (12/1) who has the form to pick up a cheque in this sort of field. Invume however is the clear stable elect; he's been improving with leaps and bounds with every visit to the racecourse and if this run continues then Alif will have his work cut out for him.

All of No.9 Market Dominance, No.7 Day by Day and No.16 Summer.com come into this race having each put in a promising effort and enough to signal there's more to come at any time. A flyer tonight from any one of these will come as no surprise but having said that, no confidence can be justified on a wager and they are relegated to the realm of potential upset material at best. Alif and Imvume look to be the two to fight it out but it's a big field and with the false rail out at only 2 meters, all of 18 runners are going to be slopping their way around that turn at high speed into the home straight.. a cert that things will not go well for all concerned. Drawn at one and two respectively, both Alif and Invume will need to hold their positions early or run the great risk of getting cut off and forced too far back, then it's a write off. If they're well placed turning for home then you can clutch onto your ticket tightly and watch the battle unfold.

In the 5th race it's No.6 again that gets the vote, the favourite Castle Ross at 9/2. He put in an outstanding performance to win his maiden and has since met some serious opposition in his follow up two races. This field is a rung or three down from that sort of class although No.1 Let's Get Started could perhaps qualify as being the exception. He's racked up two dynamite style wins at Greyville in the past but has been reliably disappointing since so no confidence there which leaves Castle Ross marked as the one to beat.

In the 7th race No.8 Foreign Trade is quoted at the very tempting odds of 12/1 and this field looks well within her winning scope. She laboured all the way home to win last time and follow up on her impressive maiden effort. That was her first run back after a 2 month breather so she's likely to come on from that performance and gets the 'value bet' of the night ticket at the generous odds available.

In the 8th race Tea Break (9/2) and Secret Babe (11/2) are back again; Tea Break destroyed Secret Babe last time out when running away from the field like a superstar and dished out a similar sort of hiding to the field she met the time before as well. Since moving up from the Cape she's turning in to a force to be reckoned with and despite being the ugly duckling of the race course in these parts, she sure can run and is bringing beauty to the art of winning. This is a tough field of hard knocking mares that she meets tonight and if she delivers another blitzkrieg drubbing again then you know she's one to follow.

No.1 Wild Ride (7/1 claimed in from 12s) is a superb athlete on her day and still looks to be reasonable value even after the claim. She is likely to go back out on the drift though once the financial churn on the race starts so keep an eye on the price anything beyond 10/1 is worthy of a tickle no matter how small.

Good luck!

Thanks again Leon, with all the work you put in I trust your judgement and have just backed Alif and if it wins Alif is forgiven.

good punting and thanks again for your superb contributions

Dave

fffffffs

what a wonderful fuckin game!

Just home from late shopping with Mrs S and a few drinks, I gather we got beat?

not to worry still one day to go!

Dave, our bud Craig rocked the boat and we fell off 2nd best.

Come Craig give us a break!

lol