KZN midweek preview - Winter wakes whilst Summer Sambas.by leon Setaro
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KZN midweek preview - Winter wakes whilst Summer Sambas.by leon Setaro
16 years 1 month ago
Winter is creeping closer and as the sun rises progressively later each day, we are left with lots happening in the dark on the training tracks. Horses carded to run in the forthcoming meeting invariably go out with the first string which doesn’t bode well for photographic sessions when there’s only stars for light. I stopped using a flash some time back because it tends to startle horses, so unfortunately through the peak season track action photo-ops are going to be few and far between.
In order to keep things fresh we are now considering a lean over to audio webcasts in a radio show type format which offers some distinct advantages. Reading requires total focus on the text/story whereas with audio one can multitask; listen to the show whilst simultaneously tackling other important things such as browsing the formbook, making a chow or whatever. With audio we will also be able to more effectively collect/obtain trainers' comments and pass them on to listeners first hand as a recording. Some feedback and suggestions would be appreciated, please post your comments below.
Now on to today’s racing – Wednesday at Scottsville; they had storms and rain on Sunday and Monday night up there; at Ashburton yesterday morning the walking rings looked like big game watering holes. Scottsville in the wet is enough to scare off even the most hardened punters.. well that’s usually the case but sometimes as luck would have it, all the signs align and out pops the right horse/s for the course and conditions combo.
The Scarlet Lady over 1400m heads up today’s program but since it’s punting that powers the industry, I’m going to skip that tough call and get straight into the good things.
Summer Samba Tuesday morning
Race 5
No.8 Summer Samba comes in with a fantastic winning chance here and just to be on the safe side I’ve already taken a full steeee-rike! early even though she's more likely to drift than shorten. Bookies currently rate her with a 14% winning chance (6/1) in a race that looks tailored for her return appearance to the Scottsville winner’s circle.
Last time out in feature race company she was much too far back turning for home but quickly powered her way past most of the field, only to labour the last bit. If using the promising Asian affair (flew up for 2nd in the same race) as a comparative runner, she was about 3 lengths ahead of Summer Samba at the 500m, by the 300m Summer Samba had chomped up the ground and gone past her, cruising into what looked to be winning contention. Then nothing more over the final 200m which in turn saw Asian Affair go past her and on to almost collar the winner. This does raise the question about whether Summer Samba stays beyond the sprint trip at this stage of her career, and her tendency to be slow into stride and race green doesn’t help the assessment. Hopefully this time from a good draw she will be better positioned turning for home and won’t need to unleash her finishing burst too early down the straight. Anyone of the 5 fillies that finished in front of her in the Umzimkhulu Stakes would’ve been short priced favourite if running here and with Summer Samba only 2,5 lengths back in 6th, all indicators point her way no matter what angle one looks at it. Trainer Duncan Howells indicated that she has stayed on the boil since her last run and in typical trainer political fashion he rates her with ‘a strong each way chance’.
No.10 The Black Pearl is short-priced favourite at 16/10 and although she’s finished 1st and 2nd respectively in her only two starts to date, both those runs were against poor opposition so not much can be read into them. This isn’t to say that she’s not good enough to win, but tackling Scottsville for the first time in conditions that are likely to be sticky, it would seem that at 16/10 it’s the ‘lay’ that will stand you upright not the wager.
No. 4 Strike Craft (5/1) on exposed form is out at the weights but someone at the MR office disagrees and has lumped her with an unjustified extra 3kgs here. As with The Black Pearl, she will need to put in a special performance to win first time at Scottsville in the wet against this field.
Stiffest opposition may come from the more experienced runners who also happen to be proven over the course and in the soft; particularly the value priced No. 5 Bezame (14/1) and No.1 Kite (12/1) - both warrant respect under the circumstances.
No. 2 Raindrops on Roses (8/1) is above average and we haven’t seen the best of her yet. She’s a leggy filly that has the potential to steal a march and stay in front if the race goes her way but with a big weight and bad draw she has it all to do.
Another to watch out for is No. 3 Treaj Pots (8/1) who comes back from a rest and has the form to be competitive if returning fit and ready
Forlisa Monday morning
The 6th race is another that offers solid punting potential - No.2 Forlisa (5/1) looked ultra impressive on the canter past last time and put in a winning performance to go with it. He was the only 3 year old in that race and beat some quality older horses, much better than what he meets here. There is however 1x exception in the form of feature race winner No.1 Gold Game (28/10) who tackles 1600m for the first time. Trainer Dylan Cunha is confident that he will both stay and win and reports that he needed his last run and has come on since then. Dylan was also quick to point out the strength of the field he met in the Byerley Turk; Monterey Boulevard and Port of Dubai have both come out from that race and won since and Gold Game had them both well beaten (giving them weight). He also beat home Lord London and it’s no disgrace to finish less than 4 lengths behind July contender Big City Life either.
Gold Game (file pic) was nominated from the
Guinness on Sunday but he didn’t crack a favourable
draw so he goes in today instead.
Second favourite No.7 - In Writing (3/1) obviously hasn’t come up from CPT for nothing and must be showing some sort of promise back at home but this is a tough race to tackle first time in KZN. No value at 3/1
Of the rest, there’s a few decent sorts that must have place chances but hard to see them beating Forlisa or Gold Game (if he stays) and the winner should come from one of these two. Because Forlisa is likely to either win or at worst get beaten by Gold Game into 2nd, this can be factored into the betting structure eg. Wins on Forlisa with a straight line exacta cover Gold Game 1st – Forlisa 2nd. In this way the question mark around Gold Game is factored in and accounted for.
----
Additional comments from Duncan Howells -
In the Scarlet Lady (race 7) he rates his mare Bold Wonder (14/1) in with a better chance than stable companion Polzeath (7/1) which is contrary to bookies opinion. Bold Wonder is well drawn and the plan is to keep her handy and in contention when turning for home.
In the 8th race - Rebellious Streak (14/1)
is well and loves the wet, a competitive run expected.
ABC wishes to thank Leon Setaro and Interbet
In order to keep things fresh we are now considering a lean over to audio webcasts in a radio show type format which offers some distinct advantages. Reading requires total focus on the text/story whereas with audio one can multitask; listen to the show whilst simultaneously tackling other important things such as browsing the formbook, making a chow or whatever. With audio we will also be able to more effectively collect/obtain trainers' comments and pass them on to listeners first hand as a recording. Some feedback and suggestions would be appreciated, please post your comments below.
Now on to today’s racing – Wednesday at Scottsville; they had storms and rain on Sunday and Monday night up there; at Ashburton yesterday morning the walking rings looked like big game watering holes. Scottsville in the wet is enough to scare off even the most hardened punters.. well that’s usually the case but sometimes as luck would have it, all the signs align and out pops the right horse/s for the course and conditions combo.
The Scarlet Lady over 1400m heads up today’s program but since it’s punting that powers the industry, I’m going to skip that tough call and get straight into the good things.
Summer Samba Tuesday morning
Race 5
No.8 Summer Samba comes in with a fantastic winning chance here and just to be on the safe side I’ve already taken a full steeee-rike! early even though she's more likely to drift than shorten. Bookies currently rate her with a 14% winning chance (6/1) in a race that looks tailored for her return appearance to the Scottsville winner’s circle.
Last time out in feature race company she was much too far back turning for home but quickly powered her way past most of the field, only to labour the last bit. If using the promising Asian affair (flew up for 2nd in the same race) as a comparative runner, she was about 3 lengths ahead of Summer Samba at the 500m, by the 300m Summer Samba had chomped up the ground and gone past her, cruising into what looked to be winning contention. Then nothing more over the final 200m which in turn saw Asian Affair go past her and on to almost collar the winner. This does raise the question about whether Summer Samba stays beyond the sprint trip at this stage of her career, and her tendency to be slow into stride and race green doesn’t help the assessment. Hopefully this time from a good draw she will be better positioned turning for home and won’t need to unleash her finishing burst too early down the straight. Anyone of the 5 fillies that finished in front of her in the Umzimkhulu Stakes would’ve been short priced favourite if running here and with Summer Samba only 2,5 lengths back in 6th, all indicators point her way no matter what angle one looks at it. Trainer Duncan Howells indicated that she has stayed on the boil since her last run and in typical trainer political fashion he rates her with ‘a strong each way chance’.
No.10 The Black Pearl is short-priced favourite at 16/10 and although she’s finished 1st and 2nd respectively in her only two starts to date, both those runs were against poor opposition so not much can be read into them. This isn’t to say that she’s not good enough to win, but tackling Scottsville for the first time in conditions that are likely to be sticky, it would seem that at 16/10 it’s the ‘lay’ that will stand you upright not the wager.
No. 4 Strike Craft (5/1) on exposed form is out at the weights but someone at the MR office disagrees and has lumped her with an unjustified extra 3kgs here. As with The Black Pearl, she will need to put in a special performance to win first time at Scottsville in the wet against this field.
Stiffest opposition may come from the more experienced runners who also happen to be proven over the course and in the soft; particularly the value priced No. 5 Bezame (14/1) and No.1 Kite (12/1) - both warrant respect under the circumstances.
No. 2 Raindrops on Roses (8/1) is above average and we haven’t seen the best of her yet. She’s a leggy filly that has the potential to steal a march and stay in front if the race goes her way but with a big weight and bad draw she has it all to do.
Another to watch out for is No. 3 Treaj Pots (8/1) who comes back from a rest and has the form to be competitive if returning fit and ready
Forlisa Monday morning
The 6th race is another that offers solid punting potential - No.2 Forlisa (5/1) looked ultra impressive on the canter past last time and put in a winning performance to go with it. He was the only 3 year old in that race and beat some quality older horses, much better than what he meets here. There is however 1x exception in the form of feature race winner No.1 Gold Game (28/10) who tackles 1600m for the first time. Trainer Dylan Cunha is confident that he will both stay and win and reports that he needed his last run and has come on since then. Dylan was also quick to point out the strength of the field he met in the Byerley Turk; Monterey Boulevard and Port of Dubai have both come out from that race and won since and Gold Game had them both well beaten (giving them weight). He also beat home Lord London and it’s no disgrace to finish less than 4 lengths behind July contender Big City Life either.
Gold Game (file pic) was nominated from the
Guinness on Sunday but he didn’t crack a favourable
draw so he goes in today instead.
Second favourite No.7 - In Writing (3/1) obviously hasn’t come up from CPT for nothing and must be showing some sort of promise back at home but this is a tough race to tackle first time in KZN. No value at 3/1
Of the rest, there’s a few decent sorts that must have place chances but hard to see them beating Forlisa or Gold Game (if he stays) and the winner should come from one of these two. Because Forlisa is likely to either win or at worst get beaten by Gold Game into 2nd, this can be factored into the betting structure eg. Wins on Forlisa with a straight line exacta cover Gold Game 1st – Forlisa 2nd. In this way the question mark around Gold Game is factored in and accounted for.
----
Additional comments from Duncan Howells -
In the Scarlet Lady (race 7) he rates his mare Bold Wonder (14/1) in with a better chance than stable companion Polzeath (7/1) which is contrary to bookies opinion. Bold Wonder is well drawn and the plan is to keep her handy and in contention when turning for home.
In the 8th race - Rebellious Streak (14/1)
is well and loves the wet, a competitive run expected.
ABC wishes to thank Leon Setaro and Interbet
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