My predicts for 13 Feb 2009

If it really works well, I'll hold on before putting it on the market otherwise my winnings will be diluted as the odds get reduced

Patrick, I wish you well on your venture, however horses are flesh and blood and have many variables, so lets talk about your "lotto" ideas.
The chances of winning the lotto are 13.9 Million to one calculated by the simple formula of how many combinations of 6 go into 49.
The balls have no memory and arrive in a random fashion, same as roulette a sequence of six black numbers still make the seventh spin "evens", not any less, and if you go to "infinity" you may have the same reds and blacks.
So the point is that any set of random numbers for the lotto have the same odds of 13.9 million to one whether it be 123456 or any random selection.
In a case where 7/17/27/37/47 are in the lotto numbers, you will find that it has a higher number of tickets due to the fact that no "7" tends to be regarded as a "lucky" number to many punters, or in fact any series of numbers that have a link would lead to more tickets.
However if you consider the "take out" before payment, you are indeed having a far less payout in any pool that the contributions received.
Look forward to your conclusions.

I don't have the spreadsheets and algoriths of Patrick123, but here is a PA for Durbanville anyway...

PA [R90]

1
1
8
3, 4, 5
1, 3, 4, 6, 8
1, 2, 3
1, 3

Best Bet: Race 4 Karl

Cheers and good racing!

Yeah, kinda rings a bell . . .

I agree Scotia, a lot of the tickets sold usually also contain the person's special dates.
Individually, each spin of the roulette wheel gives red & black an equal chance of coming up. Expanding on this, using the law of large numbers, ignoring the zero, after a few thousand spins, statistically speaking, you'd have a near even spread of both red & black results.

Taking this into account, this is where we can then start 'guestimating' the potential outcome of the next spin. 1st spin, 50% chance of black, the result is red, second spin, if we just look at that spin, it's a 50% chance each way, but because we now have history, we can say there's now a higher probability of it being black, result is still red, the third spin will hold an even higher chance if you take the history into account, any new person that arrives and does not know the history, will basically start at the 50% mark. even after 10 odd spins, all red, we are now almost certain 99.5% that the black will now hit. It can never be 100%, but the odds in our favour after 10 spins has increased dramatically, not a new guy, his is still 50%, but for us, the ball does not hold the memory, but we do! and we know, we hope, that we're playing with a balanced wheel.

In summary, it is not the roulette table's memory that comes into play, it's our memory. The table will always be 50%, but our memory applying statistics to past events, helps predict the future.

I'm not the most articulate person, but I hope this makes sense.

Regards
Patrick

Adios Bookies, my apologies, I googled nomchevo but never came up with much info, please elaborate.

If I can say a bit about myself, I do programming & software support for a number of clients, more in the retail & billing industry. Numbers & statistics are my enjoyment slash hobby. I'm not here to sell myself or any kind of advertising, I'm just trying to find other people who also have a passion for numerical concepts being it analysis of numbers or anything along those lines.

I doubt whether I'll ever be able to make even a splash in the horse racing business and I have no intention to. I'm simply doing it out of my own curiosity or enjoyment.

So please tell me what bells are ringing?

Regards
Patrick

Race 5 Desert Lion the biggest outsider should be ultra fit after running over trips that are not suitable for this sprinter. Drops back to the 1000m and I am hoping that he reproduces the form he had with Dennis Drier.

A small each way at 66/1 will hurt none

@ Adios

I found a chap called nomchevo on another forum, I assume that you're relating to this chap. I do not profess to know the horses!! I do not assume that my knowledge is superior to anyone's here. I'm here to learn and I respect everyone's replies to me.

The info that I've given here is purely from my computer not any opinion of mine. As Scotia says, horses are flesh & blood, each has their own nature. Each is predictable... but to an extent. All I'm hoping to do, is to take as much of this information and try and apply an non-emotional, clinical, analysis to the values. There are so many variables. I don't expect to beat every race or meeting, but that is where good money management or betting strategy comes in, to cater for the times that all your selections end up being the donkeys of the races.

Regards
Patrick

ps. Alcaponee, if Desert Lion comes in, it'll buy me a couple of whiskeys this afternoon.

1st spin, 50% chance of black, the result is red, second spin, if we just look at that spin, it's a 50% chance each way, but because we now have history, we can say there's now a higher probability of it being black, result is still red, the third spin will hold an even higher chance if you take the history into account, any new person that arrives and does not know the history, will basically start at the 50% mark. even after 10 odd spins, all red, we are now almost certain 99.5% that the black will now hit.

NOT TRUE - Every single spin of the wheel has NO relevance to the previous!

Which if you read Dave's post is exactly what he said.

And if you are a 'mathematician' - you should understand that - no?

I've stood at a wheel in Vegas and watch people lose thousands because they've jumped in on a colour after 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 - 16 - 17 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21 consecutive numbers!

And as for your "ignore the zero's" tells me that you haven't got a clue what the heck your talking about - hence the 'Nom' jibe - lol!

Have a nice day

Patrick123

Nomchevo never let used 5 sentences when he could go 30. He would ask and answer his own questions. He preened himself like a cock, and thought good spelling would spare the aggravation of his drivel.

So have your say, but speak lay-man and cut to the chase.

They got an excellent nose for BS here.

But welcome, let's see what you got - no excuses.

Thanks Jack Dash,

I am a total Newbie, I dated a girl back in '79 whose dad owned horses at Newmarket and got into racing then. After that I was totally out of the racing scene and have only been looking at it for the last year.

I do not profess to have anything, but my enjoyment for the sport. So far as for my Fairview ratings, I've seen my butt bigtime, back to the drawing board for me.. I now analyse what my tin brain has given me and try adjust for the results.

Regards
Patrick

Jamster, I don't know what your issue is, the zero helps the house have the edge, I was trying to portray a 50/50 issue, that's why I excluded it in my illustration, in that case if you want to nit-pick let's use coin tossing.

I do not profess to be a mathematician or statistician. I state that I enjoy numbers out of hobby purposes. I agree that the black-red or for your benefit, the head-tail scenario can have multiple results of the same value, but now you give any statistician a list or table saying "these are the results of 200 coin tosses", 198 are heads and two are tails, he does not even need to do his fancy chi-tests and such to tell you that very likely the coin used is not fair!

If you were able to understand what I was putting across, the coin may not have the memory,in other words, I AGREE, THE COIN HAS NO MEMORY!!!! but you have!!! and that is what makes the difference.

Now if you think I'm still talking BS, please take a BALANCED coin, flip it 100 times and count the number of heads. It is possible that you get 10 or maybe 20 heads in a row, but I guarantee you!!!! I stake my **** on it that not all 100 flips will be heads, the more times you flip the coin, the closer it will get to the statistical mean of 50/50 even though the coin has no memory. And that's what is relied upon to make the predictions.