I thought people taking 3/10 about a grooms ride in race one was a little bit of lunacy ..... then checked his record.... 6 winners and a second in his last 8 rides including a 50/1 !!!
I thought people taking 3/10 about a grooms ride in race one was a little bit of lunacy ..... then checked his record.... 6 winners and a second in his last 8 rides including a 50/1 !!!
R2) 1 His Lordship e/w
R5) 2 Hillary Step e/w
R6) 10 Can't Catch Me e/w
R8) 5 Bregardt e/w
Paris Longchamp R1) 8 Wit Perd e/w
Absolutely agree with His Lordship .... had a small each way at 25/1 earlier today. Another long shot I took 5/2 for four places is Gift Of Royal in the 3rd race.... and included both of these in a Pick 3
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, manwatweet
Credit to Darryl Maree on the WtW show - not sure where he picked up the course configuration has changed (outside rail moved in some 10m), so we will need to see where the runners go down this straight; interesting that last week Rollwiththepunches nearly won by going down the inside - so imo it would pay to watch the first few races to see where the best going is ....
R1: At these odds, one won't get rich backing Palace Dancer - maybe try and find the 2nd horse - but that's not easy imo - perhaps Black Hole Sun could improve over this 1200 ?
R2: Blizzard Snow again running against males - and she did beat Palace Dancer on collateral times (although BS carried 55,5 and PD carried 58 kgs) - so I think she could easily give the Peters stable a double; Busstopinhounslow (where do they find these names) was easily beaten last time over further - but does boast a good penultimate run over the Turffontein 1000 - so this 1200 could be straight up his ally and his performance (drawn on the inside) could also give a hint as to where the better going is - looks a two-horse race unless the Matchett-trained first-timers can surprise - still in my book Blizzard Snow is the right one
R3: This does not look easy - it could be that Mizzen Sword (as eluded to by Mr Maree) could need more ground - but the fact that he now gets 'allies' (and jockey selection) point to stable confidence - so first choice for me; Antonio Gaudi was beaten by MS last time and chances are that MS would improve more; Bad Medicine gets Khumalo, so the stable probably expects improvement after a break of almost 5 months. Spy Story showed big improvement in his 3rd start (with blinkers) behind subsequent feature-fifth-placed French Bolt (but next time Antonio Gaudi beat him over track and trip), so imo it points to Mizzen Sword
R4: Handicap - not sure what happened to Avoontoast last time, but if one ignores that run, she does seem a worthy favorite; Ariel's Jet (as per the jock) probably better on a galloping track, so should go close as well , while I Am Regal is not the most consistent, but did finish in front of the favorite last time, and also seems to be weighted to beat Ariel's Jet; these 3 stand out a bit, as both Party Punch and Play With Fire seem held and Silver Flare (probably the stable elect judging on jockey arrangements) faces a lot stronger; Sneak Preview could upset if liking this trip
R5: Competitive F&M Handicap; both Willy Meet Again and Mary Read get a lot of weight from the big improver Blue Horizon, so looks a tough task; Alabama Anna always thereabouts so must have a chance again ; Hilary Step has won twice for Trent Mayhew, so could be the surprise package - but this does seem an open race
R6: Another open F&M Handicap; Risky Business going for 4 in a row, so looks to have her work cut out at the weights, so I prefer Willowild; if the draw favors the inside, Tibetan Voyage could be a bit of value; interesting that Matsunyane sticks with Wilkies, who has taken a big drop in ratings and tries 1400
R7: Another wide open Handicap; Longsword overdue, while Esquevelle is now an 8-time winner giving L only 2,5 kgs, but probably the only one to ignore is Hawkbill, who should need the run and prefers more ground
R8: As pointed out on the WtW show, Prince of Kildare is thrown in here based on his last effort, but he raced in Handicaps before off this rating and could not win (although close up), so I prefer Purpleninjaturtle; many others can pop up, Bregardt (well weighted and aapie probably better down the straight ?), King of Millions and Vava Vegas heads my list
Enjoy
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, Sylvester, Bob Brogan, Magi, manwatweet
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