TURFFONTEIN SATURDAY 27 APRIL 2024

I may be influenced by my form the last couple of weeks, but I think this is a typically season-ending meeting and I have little confidence in my analysis - many might have gone over the top - so it could be worthwhile sticking to the juveniles who looks up and coming - thoughts ...

R1: It will of course depend on how much the  2yr-olds have improved and ability over the 1600, but Legend of Arthur was beaten by Mount Pinatubo when they met on debut, so I'd be in MP's camp - but I think Sunset Riot is the value at the odds

R2: I'm hesitant on a selection here - World of Alice only beat the moderate Mother City by a neck - so no value imo; Queen of Fire holds Fatal Flaw, but perhaps at the weights Sonic Jet is the value

R3: It will depend on how good Buffalo Storm Cody is - opposition he faced in his Maiden win does not seem great shakes - but he beat them easily - I'd be in the camp of the filly (oops not a filly - referring to Wind of Change) who gets weight from BSC and might have needed her first local start

R4: It does point to Simply Majestic, but I'd watch out for the stable mate Montana Lights who made no show when supported in her debut - Lerena probably had the choice, but jocks have been wrong before

R5: Competitive sprint; always thought that White Pearl would be more effective over more ground, but her penultimate start over track and trip was very good and she does have weight advantage over One Fell Swoop who beat her that time, so first choice for me; this is open however and I'd include Alula's Star who is best this track and trip

R6: This is where the form of the 3yr-old fillies will be tested, and given my 'feeling' that they have been heavily raced and might have gone over the top, I think it lies between Gilded Butterfly and Perfect Witness (jock has been aboard for 3 wins on her and she is ideally suited to track and trip) from None Other who imo is better over more ground

R7: As in the previous race, the form of the 3yr-old males will be tested here and again my 'feeling' is that they might have gone over the top; I think Safe Passage may be the right one (Yeni has ridden him 5 times for 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd); Puerto Manzano has had his problems in his last 2 starts, but he may bounce back to his best and if he does, I think he could be right there

R8: Senor Santa where Lucky Lad does seem a worthy favorite - only doubt in my mind is that he is entered in the KZN Guineas next week - so is this a prep gallop ? I'd rather have a place bet on Captain Hindsight at better odds than a win bet on LL; Surjay is an interesting runner, but may need it in his first local start

R9: Gold Bowl with an interesting spread of weights; United Council imo is the value after running on well in her last start over 2850m 

R10: I do think that Celtic Rumours looks the right one - surely Mujbar needs to start showing something ?

Enjoy 












 

@Frodo "....R2: I'm hesitant on a selection here - World of Alice only beat the moderate Mother City by a neck - so no value imo; Queen of Fire holds Fatal Flaw, but perhaps at the weights Sonic Jet is the value.... my first thought looking at the weight turnaround between Fatal Flaw and Sonic jet is that Jet may be worth a punt at the odds, but watched that race 3 times... Fatal Flaw Striker hardly moved a muscle and eased him up just before the line while Muzi was hard at work on Sonic Jet and basically making no impression. So I went with Fatal Flaw my yankees etc.

First race - pace was a mad scramble - Richard judged it right - have to wonder what the other jocks were thinking 

Course looks to be cutting up , gonna make it testing for the horses 

Richard another easy winner 

Watching Fatal Flaw last time she was plugging on resolutely , think these conditions will suit

Frodo wrote:

First race - pace was a mad scramble - Richard judged it right - have to wonder what the other jocks were thinking 

Madness ! 2nd horse was 4 lengths behind Fourie turning for home. 
 

I'm struggling to enjoy the course feed. Some bad parts and some very enjoyable parts...
Coverage to post could be better. enjoyed some of the feed from the parade ring, but not all the interviews.
Twostep Queen...my pick to post, places
Queen Of Fire...EW
 

well ridden from both jocks, tactically...Craig and Pierre

Winds of change wins and exactas with Dantonfromsandton

mighty  STIIIFFF  there Striker....   I think u deserved the WIN there.....  but  not so !

No disrespect intended and, hindsight is 20/20...I think PS thought he had it, but no-one has eyes in the back of their head. A well balanced ride by him vs the hard work that CZ had on a green horse.