A look at the SECTIONAL TIMES of 3 races run at DURBANVILLE on Saturday.
Since a few Group races of WCP Racing is coming up fast its a definite must to analyse the Races heading into those days...
Ceratinly any CHARLES DICKENS race is worth a closer look indeed.The Race that i really want to look at thou is the SUGAR MOUNTAIN ace so ive added that race.
CONDITIONS ON THE DAY: Track was even and winners camd from all over in diffrent lanes today.
The *FASTEST RUN* race on the day was without a doubt the SUGAR MOUNTAIN RACE....they went 1.8L and 4.3L faster than that of the GH and CD races over the 1st 400m. By the 600m Mark they were still 5.8L and 5.5L ahead respectively.They went a blistering gallop and the fact that they finished the race in that time was very VERY IMPRESSIVE. This form will hold up staring and several winners will come from this RACE. The winner,SUGAR MOUNTAIN was tremendous and has a FEATURE RACE WIN ahead....Defnitely a group quality horse...
The *SLOWEST RUN* race was that of the CHARLES DICKENS RACE,but they finished with Very impressive sectionals hence proving they are group quality horses....In my RACE SUMMARY I did an in-depth look at Charles D vs GIMME A PRINCE....mmmmmmmm
They went the Slowest over 1st 600m in the GOLDEN H RACE and their finishing speeds wasn't as good as the former 2 races. HAPPY CHANCE and SILVERLINKS will improve over further but GH was better than them on the day.
*PACE/FINISHING SPEEDS* put in context:
WINNER/HORSE L400M L200M L400% L200%
GOLDEN HOSTESS 23.40 12.15 104.98% 101.09%
HAPPY CHANCE 23.73 12.42 102.26% 99.52%
CALA MURETTA 24.20 12.80 102.26% 96.67%
GOLDEN HOSTESS
was simply too good for them...A very good performance but not as flashy as it looked and rates 3rd best a month the 3 races in question.
HAPPY CHANCE
Will do better with a better draw and maybe a little extra distance but GH is a better horse!!!!!
CALA MURETTA
Ran an absolute Cracker but is a Sprinter and should Defnitely be followed over sprints as she will still improve further
WINNER/HORSE L400 L200 L400M% L200M% L100M%
CHARLES DICKENS 22.83 11.76 105.91% 102.80% 100.75%
GIMME A PRINCE 22.63 11.54 106.91% 104.82% 102.17%
CHARLES DICKENS
We all know he is a Champ!!!!This was what most expected although I expected the runner up to 'do better' CD will no doubt improve and will be a hard horse to beat over his pet distance, 1600m, In the Group races....I need to say nothing here.
GIMME A PRINCE
Everybody rated him the 'danger' and everybody was right. This horse has improved after a little break and havevstrengthen up tremendously.In HK....they have a 'big thing' for when horses turn 5 years old as that's when they reach peak fitness/strength levels, a certain BEAUTY GENERATION comes to mind!!!! The trainer should seriously think about the Queens Plate. On the eye PRINCE was very impressive but on the numbers even more so!!!! His Last 200 and 100m FS were faster than his RACE average which only Champions can achieve. As a Sprinter....They won't touch him at all this season....but Mr Trainer....PLEASE....Go to the Queens Plate!!!!!!💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼
WINNER/HORSE L400 L200M L400% L200% L100%
SUGAR MOUNTAIN 23.24 6.0 104.27% 102.86% 100.97%
WECANGOALLNIGHT 23.57 6.15 102.90% 100.30% 98.59%
HAN SOLO 23.29 12.09 104.39% 101.98% 100.80%
SCALDINI 23.71 12.04 102.56% 100.98% 98.52%
FUTURE PRINCE 23.15 11.87 105.12% 102.51% 101.06%
This will probably be the STRONGEST 'FORM RACE' of the above. ALL 5 put up very good numbers but I'll only talk about 3 of them...
SCALINI
Was tremendous in defeat. He sat up close absorbing all that pressure,than had to be switched for a run and still finished close...a cracking effort and will win soon.
FUTURE PRINCE
Ran a blunder here and will improve with a STEP UP in distance.Another who looks to have strengthen up tremendously and has an GROUP WIN in him over further ow that he has turned 5 and looking strong His last 400/200/100m FS was tremendous
@heinrich - imo the analysis of the 'Sectional Times' is just one of many factors to take into account; let's just point out that Sugar Mountain carried 4kgs less than Charles (and 4,5 kgs less than Golden Hostess) - some guys may differ ito opinions on how many kgs = how many lengths, but age-old analysis would seem to confirm that for distances around 1400 - 1800, 1 kg would equal about 1 length - so given the weights carried, SM would have run slower had he carried the same weights as CD and GH ....
The following user(s) said Thank You: Dave Scott, naresh
1000% right Frodo. I couldnt agree more about those facts. When analysing a race...i place ST's above all else(except for 2 things......Weights and Track Conditions)
Im well aware that CD and GH had to carry more weight('slowing them down in comparison') but what ST show us actually is how efficient or inefficient a race was run.
SM ran the 1st 400m and 1st 600m in 24.93 and 37.10 seconds respectively.
CD ran them in 25.47 and 37.68 respectively.
So basically at the 400m SM was 3.5L ahead and at the 600m he was 3.6L ahead of CD due to the fact that his race was run at a faster pace.
Even with the 4.5kg less...That is what makes his run so exceptional...The fact that he was able to match CD(who no doubt will improve with fitness) in the L200 and L100m even thou he suffered so much early on.
In truth i made that same argument to myself when comparing them(weights) But if he had run in their races...I firmly believe...even carry 58kg...he wouldve been able to run even faster the last 400m(due to the lack of early speed in those races compared to his)
I dont think he can beat CD over 1600m but i think he might just give him a go over 1400m. SM will no doubt,prove wether im right or wrong about him...only time will tell.
That is what makes racing interesting Frodo...and you made me relive that 'How much faster?' theory that im always 'obsessed' with.
No doubt in my mind...In racing....Weight matters...even 1kg!!!!
On the subject of weight
...B. Crawford is a master at placing Horses 1st up outta their maiden wins...Usually they get so 3kg or 4kg off....runs over same CD and normally run crackers.
SCALINI and WECANGOALLNIGHT runs tmrw and both ran tremendous races lto...They are out at the weights and its a strong race,personally I think they should've gone into a handicap. But either way....we get to see how they go.
Topic Author
